The Week 13 schedule for the 2024 NFL season begins with an amazing slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and now we have you lined with what it’s essential know for the vacation’s three matchups.
Our NFL Nation reporters deliver us the largest keys to each sport, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every contest. The ESPN Analysis group offers an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every matchup, whereas our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a sport projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy soccer X elements, and three analysts — Moody, Walder and Kalyn Kahler — give us closing rating picks for each sport. Plus, we have a look at the most effective moments from every group’s Thanksgiving historical past.
Let’s begin with the Bears and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for the twentieth time.
Soar to a matchup:
CHI-DET | NYG-DAL | MIA-GB
12:30 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -10 (48.5 O/U)
Bears storyline to look at: Broad receiver DJ Moore went from averaging 9.8 air yards per goal in Weeks 1-10 to 1.9 after the Bears made Thomas Brown their offensive coordinator in Week 11. Moore caught all seven of his targets that got here behind the road of scrimmage towards the Packers and Vikings for 96 yards and a landing. He has generated 120 yards after the catch, which is a league excessive over the previous two weeks. Detroit’s protection has allowed 4.3 yards per goal on passes behind the road of scrimmage, which is the fourth-lowest common within the league, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Courtney Cronin
Lions storyline to look at: On a brief week, can the Lions ship their first Thanksgiving victory since 2016? Though they’re off to their greatest begin in 90 years, Detroit will attempt to restrict distractions through the annual vacation sport, as coach Dan Campbell’s message this week was to relaxation, get better and deal with the job at hand. The Lions have scored 40-plus factors in three straight house video games and can attempt to proceed that tempo. “We have not received on Thanksgiving shortly, and that is one thing we need to change,” quarterback Jared Goff mentioned following Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Lions would be the seventh group up to now 40 seasons to play on Thanksgiving because the NFL’s highest-scoring offense. Every of the earlier six groups went on to win their video games.
Daring prediction: Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson will intercept Goff. Johnson is having one other nice season, with 0.9 yards per protection snap allowed, nicely under the 1.2 common for out of doors corners (per Subsequent Gen Stats). — Walder
Accidents: Bears | Lions
Fantasy X issue: Lions working again Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit’s offensive line ranks twelfth in run block win fee, and the group is third in dashing makes an attempt per sport. As David Montgomery offers with a shoulder damage on a brief week, anticipate the Lions to lean much more on Gibbs. The Bears’ defensive entrance ranks twenty sixth in run cease win fee, so Detroit’s floor sport may have an enormous day. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 1-4 towards the unfold (ATS) of their previous 5 video games, and 4 of their previous 5 video games have gone below the full. Learn extra.
Kahler’s choose: Lions 28, Bears 21
Moody’s choose: Lions 30, Bears 17
Walder’s choose: Lions 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: DET, 76.2% (by a median of 11.0 factors)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: That is the second-most-common matchup on Thanksgiving Day after the Packers and Lions’ 22 conferences. Chicago leads the Thanksgiving collection 11-8, together with three straight wins in 2018, 2019 and 2021. Detroit final received in 2014, when Calvin Johnson recorded 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Learn extra.
Matchup must-reads: Caleb Williams bettering below OC Thomas Brown … Cairo Santos accepts blame for ‘stink’ with blocks … How the Lions went from perennial underdog to sportsbooks’ worst enemy
4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DAL -4 (37.5 O/U)
Giants storyline to look at: The Giants are available reeling and on the verge of implosion. They’ve dropped six straight, and gamers referred to as their effort “tender” in Sunday’s 30-7 loss to the Buccaneers following the bye week. New York has been outscored 148-74 throughout that stretch and relied on Tommy DeVito, beforehand the third-string quarterback, final week. DeVito was sacked 4 instances and is now a protracted shot to play Thursday attributable to a forearm damage. That places Drew Lock in line for his first begin with the Giants. — Jordan Raanan
Cowboys storyline to look at: Can they put collectively a successful streak? Can they really win a sport at house? The Cowboys final received two straight in Weeks 4 and 5 and have but to win a sport at AT&T Stadium this season. They’ve trailed by greater than 20 factors in every of their previous six house video games, together with the playoffs, which is an NFL file. However that is the Giants, who’re coming off an embarrassing Week 12 efficiency. And the Cowboys have received seven straight video games towards them at AT&T Stadium. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: Giants defensive sort out Dexter Lawrence II had 9 sacks by way of Week 7, which was essentially the most in NFL. He has had zero sacks since then, however yet one more would make him the third Giants participant with double-digit sacks by way of 12 video games up to now 15 seasons.
Daring prediction: Malik Nabers will file 90-plus receiving yards. He is nonetheless rocking a 99 open rating by way of ESPN’s receiver scores, the best attainable, which suggests he is doing his job to get open — whether or not or not his quarterback can get him the ball. I believe Lock beginning is an effective factor (relative to DeVito) for Nabers, particularly after he complained about not getting a first-half goal final week. — Walder
Accidents: Giants | Cowboys
7:12
Can Mike McCarthy save his job, and is Invoice Belichick a very good match for the Cowboys?
Stephen A. Smith, Shannon Sharpe and Tedy Bruschi debate whether or not or not Mike McCarthy would possibly be capable to nonetheless save his job or if Invoice Belichick could be a very good match for the Cowboys.
Fantasy X issue: Cowboys broad receiver CeeDee Lamb. In regular-season video games with out quarterback Dak Prescott, Lamb has averaged 12.0 targets and 16.8 fantasy factors per sport. With Rush below middle, he ought to get loads of seems to be, particularly as a result of the Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to finish 70.8% of their passes. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 5-0 when the Giants play groups with dropping information this season. Learn extra.
Kahler’s choose: Cowboys 17, Giants 12
Moody’s choose: Cowboys 26, Giants 19
Walder’s choose: Cowboys 19, Giants 16
FPI prediction: DAL, 52.6% (by a median of 1.2 factors)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: In 1993, Cowboys defensive sort out Leon Lett tried to get better a blocked successful subject objective try. The ball was booted ahead by Lett and recovered by the Dolphins on the 2-yard line. Miami linked on its subsequent subject objective try and received 16-14. Learn extra.
Matchup must-reads: Eli Manning is destined for Corridor of Fame, however when? … Is the Cowboys’ wild win a stepping stone to a late playoff push? … Contained in the wild Cowboys win towards the Commanders
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Universo/Peacock | ESPN BET: GB -3.5 (46.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to look at: The Dolphins are winless below coach Mike McDaniel in temperatures below 40 levels — and temperatures in Inexperienced Bay are anticipated to drop under freezing. McDaniel mentioned his group is nicely conscious of the narrative about its incapability to play in chilly climate. However Miami is bringing one of the environment friendly offenses over the previous month into this matchup. No NFL group has scored on a better share of its drives since Week 8 than the Dolphins (56.3%). — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Packers storyline to look at: The Packers may need lastly ironed out their crimson zone points. They scored touchdowns on all 5 of their crimson zone drives (together with three scoring runs by Josh Jacobs) in Sunday’s win over the 49ers after rating twenty seventh in landing share contained in the 20 earlier than the sport. As a result of the Dolphins rank seventh in crimson zone protection, this Thanksgiving contest would possibly present whether or not that is for actual or a fluke. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Packers pressured three or extra takeaways for the sixth time this season towards the 49ers, which is essentially the most within the NFL. They scored 22 factors off turnovers, which is their most in a sport since Week 17 of 2022.
Daring prediction: Dolphins edge Chop Robinson will file two or extra sacks. The rookie cross rusher has actually been approaching robust recently. In Week 12, he led edge rushers in cross rush win fee for the second straight week (42.1%). — Walder
Accidents: Dolphins | Packers
Fantasy X issue: Dolphins working again De’Von Achane. He’s essential on this must-win sport for Miami, because it seems to be to get again into the AFC playoff race. Why not lean on one in all its most harmful playmakers? Achane has scored 20-plus fantasy factors in 4 of his previous 5 video games. The Packers’ protection has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per sport to working backs this season, making his dual-threat ability set particularly invaluable. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 8-3 outright and ATS in video games when it is 32 levels or under below coach Matt LaFleur, together with the playoffs. Learn extra.
Kahler’s choose: Packers 28, Dolphins 27
Moody’s choose: Packers 34, Dolphins 28
Walder’s choose: Packers 24, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: GB, 66.3% (by a median of 6.5 factors)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: That is simply the third time the Packers have performed at house on Thanksgiving. The opposite matchups have been a 1923 win over the Hammond Professionals and a 17-13 loss to the Bears in 2015. Towards Chicago, Inexperienced Bay was stuffed on fourth-and-goal with 22 seconds left in regulation. Learn extra.
Matchup must-reads: Tyreek Hill’s site visitors citations dismissed after officers’ no-show … McDaniel hints at ‘tantrum’ to keep away from Calais Campbell commerce … Jacobs, dashing sport give Packers one thing to depend on
