If I am putting bets on a weekend, I am not taking a look at full sport spreads or totals. These are environment friendly markets which were wager into all week. As an alternative, I am in search of the obscure. It is my specialty, anyway. It is what I construct statistical fashions round to attempt to discover an edge. If there’s a bonus to be discovered now, it is in small markets.
So come alongside for the journey and see how we fare diving deep into some last-minute Tremendous Bowl props.
Odds by ESPN BET.
Sport props
First Accepted Penalty: Any Different Penalty (+350)
That is the “area” choice, so we’re betting on it being one thing apart from: holding (+275), false begin (+325), offside/encroachment/impartial zone infraction (+325), defensive cross interference (+800), delay of sport (+1500), offensive cross interference (+2000) or no accepted penalties (+5000).
That leaves rather a lot for area, although. Suppose: roughing the passer, intentional grounding, too many males on the sector, facemasks, unsportsmanlike conduct, and plenty of extra. These “different” penalties made up 30% of accepted penalties throughout the league this yr and 29% for these two groups. Though some are particular groups penalties (and thus much less prone to be first), I nonetheless assume that is the worth choose. Plus: Invoice Vinovich’s video games had the bottom offensive holding price (the favourite) of any referee this yr. He will not have his complete crew with him for the Tremendous Bowl, however the referee himself performs a task in holding calls.
Underneath 4.5 complete sacks (-150)
I need to be fading sacks on this sport, with Patrick Mahomes being probably the greatest quarterbacks at avoiding sacks (3.7% sack price) and Brock Purdy higher than common and likelihood neither crew pulls out approach forward. Sadly, many of the worth has been sapped from this prop: it was -130 as not too long ago as Wednesday. I make it -162 so there’s nonetheless just a little left, so far as my numbers are involved.
I additionally appreciated zero sacks within the sport as a longshot at 40-1 (I make it 33-1) however on Thursday night the worth dropped to 25-1, so it is now not a wager for the aim of this text. However I am mentioning simply in case the worth jumps again up or is accessible for extra, elsewhere.
Participant sacks
Javon Hargrave below 0.5 sacks (-280)
See: above. Hargrave is an effective participant who had 7.0 sacks and a 16% cross rush win price at defensive sort out — within the prime 10 for the place. However! With the intention to get a sack within the Tremendous Bowl he has to chase down Patrick Mahomes, who has not simply the aforementioned 3.7% sack price, however solely a 12.6% sack price when pressured (each stats second solely to Josh Allen). I make Hargrave’s below -385.
Chase Younger over 0.5 sacks (+325)
I am clearly down on sacks throughout the board, however on Chase the quantity has gone too far. Younger’s taking part in time diminished when he was traded to the 49ers and he was broadly criticized for an absence of effort on a Jahmyr Gibbs landing run within the NFC Championship Sport. Will that result in a lowered function within the Tremendous Bowl? Possibly, however quietly Younger has really performed much more within the postseason, taking part in 67% and 78% of the crew’s defensive snaps within the divisional spherical and convention championship, respectively. So on condition that, I am keen to roll with my mannequin, which costs Younger at +208 to go over half a sack.
See additionally:
Arik Armstead below 0.5 sacks (-280)
Tackles
Javon Kinlaw over 0.5 tackles + assists (-140)
Kinlaw’s taking part in time has dropped within the postseason, however I manually adjusted the mannequin to count on postseason price of play to proceed for the Tremendous Bowl — and I am nonetheless approach over right here, with 2.7 projected tackles + assists. Though the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, the 49ers are weaker on the bottom so the Chiefs will probably make an effort to run the ball at the least some. Additionally bear in mind: many of the season the 49ers have been favored and profitable — leading to fewer rush makes an attempt from their opponents. However the Tremendous Bowl is predicted to be shut, once more which means extra potential rushes. Every a type of is a sort out alternative for Kinlaw, if he is on the sector.
See additionally:
Fred Warner below 8.5 tackles + assists (-135)
Defensive interceptions
Trent McDuffie below 0.5 interceptions (-1000)
That is the least horny wager I’ve put on this column all yr. However you understand what? We have been dedicated to following the info and my fashions all yr, so why cease now — even to probably win only a tenth of a unit? I make McDuffie’s below –1216 — I am just a little decrease on Purdy’s interceptions possibilities (see beneath!) — and so I am rolling with it.
QB interceptions
Brock Purdy below 0.5 interceptions (-105)
I believe Purdy’s interception prop is influenced by recency: he threw an interception within the NFC Championship Sport and has thrown 5 picks previously 4 video games. However I might slightly take the longer lens view: Purdy has not thrown an interception in 11 of 18 video games this season. And whereas it is a shut unfold, Purdy’s crew is favored and that counts for one thing by way of interception avoidance. I make the below -125.
Cross completions
Brock Purdy below 20.5 completions (-105)
The Chiefs have protection however they actually have cross protection. San Francisco ought to have the ability to run on them and run rather a lot, draining the clock and taking cross makes an attempt and completions from Purdy. Plus, I lean 49ers within the sport (as does the unfold) and in the event that they get out to a lead that may solely additional San Francisco’s need to run the ball. My mannequin forecasts 19.5 completions for Purdy.
Outcomes
Convention championship week
QB interceptions: 0-1 (-1.0 models)
Cross completions: 1-0 (+0.9 models)
Sacks: 2-2-1 (-0.5 models)
Tackles: 1-2 (-1.3 models)
Sport props: 0-1 (-1.0 models)
General: 4-6-1 (-2.9 models)
Futures resolved (Will Anderson Jr. DROY, Guess in Week 5): 1-0 (+8.5 models)
2023 season
QB interceptions: 21-26 (-1.3 models)
Cross completions: 11-11 (-0.9 models)
Cross makes an attempt: 11-11 (-2.3 models)
Receptions: 11-2 (+7.4 models)
Sacks: 95-64-12 (+23.2 models)
Tackles: 76-68-1 (+5.7 models)
Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 models)
D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 models)
Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 models)
Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 models)
Sport props: 0-3 (-3.0 models)
Award futures: 1-0 (+8.5 models)
General: 230-212-13 (+28.2 models)
