I believed I used to be executed with Tremendous Bowl LVIII, however one dialog that retains taking place has pulled me again in. I touched on San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan’s resolution to take the ball first in time beyond regulation in my recap column final Monday, however after tales broke that some 49ers gamers did not know the foundations and video was launched of the Chiefs celebrating Shanahan’s resolution on the sideline, it has changed into a a lot larger story.
After I wrote in regards to the sport — which ended with the Chiefs scoring a landing on the second possession of time beyond regulation — I suspected the dialog Monday morning would work on discovering a scapegoat for what had gone fallacious. Given Shanahan’s points in shedding two prior Tremendous Bowls, he was the more than likely goal, with many conflating a number of 49ers gamers not figuring out the brand new time beyond regulation guidelines to Shanahan himself not understanding the choices accessible.
You would argue his scapegoat as an alternative turned defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, who got here inside a fourth-down cease of profitable a Tremendous Bowl earlier than being fired final week. I might level towards the 49ers’ cross blockers, who made a number of psychological errors and certain price Brock Purdy & Co. a number of touchdowns within the course of. Extra realistically, San Francisco misplaced for a number of causes, none of which needs to be the one sole issue accountable.
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Having had every week to digest arguments, it looks as if time to take an extended look each at Shanahan’s particular resolution and what your favourite crew’s coach ought to select if he is fortunate sufficient to make it to time beyond regulation within the postseason subsequent season. Is it so simple as following what the Chiefs did? I am not so positive. Let’s run by the arguments I’ve seen in favor of selecting to get the ball first or second and consider whether or not they maintain up:
Leap to an argument:
It is the identical as faculty soccer!
You are not getting the ball again!
However Mahomes is on the opposite facet!
Shanahan tousled on his OT drive!
The decision: What ought to groups do in future?
Argument No. 1: It is the identical as CFB!
“We already know what to do from faculty soccer. Go second so you possibly can know what you want. Downside solved.”
That is the argument I noticed most frequently about this resolution, and it is simply fallacious. Whereas there is definitely a profit to getting the ball second — let’s name this being Staff 2 from this level ahead — and figuring out what you want, there are two main variations between the NFL’s playoff time beyond regulation course of and faculty soccer’s. One is subject place: The NFL’s rule begins every possession with a typical kickoff, whereas faculty soccer time beyond regulation begins on the 25-yard line for 2 possessions earlier than beginning on the 3-yard line for the third time beyond regulation.
The opposite distinction is extra vital, and it is the issue Shanahan introduced up in making his resolution. In faculty soccer, groups all the time get an opportunity to both match or high the primary crew’s (Staff 1) rating on their drive, so there’s not a lot thought: Most groups will favor to be Staff 2 and know what they want in the event that they need to win. With that being stated, from 2013 to 2021, Staff 2 received solely 51% of the time in a 243-game pattern of faculty soccer overtimes, so this is not a major benefit.
If the 2 NFL groups are tied after they every get one possession with the soccer, although, Staff 1 will get the ball for the third possession of time beyond regulation with the chance to win by scoring a subject objective or landing — with out giving the ball again to the opposing crew. That is a dramatic benefit! Keep in mind that from 1994 to 2011, when NFL groups had been in a position to win in time beyond regulation by kicking a subject objective and while not having to offer the opposition one other possession, groups that received the coin toss received the sport practically 60% of the time. If Staff 1 will get to the third possession of time beyond regulation, it is primarily taking part in a sport as if it had received the toss beneath the league’s previous playoff guidelines.
That 60% quantity additionally underestimates Staff 1’s possibilities of profitable on drive No. 3 of time beyond regulation. The NFL was spurred to make the change partially by the bettering efficiency of kickers on long-distance subject targets, which has solely continued. From 2000 to 2011, kickers hit simply over 55% of their subject targets within the 50- to 59-yard vary. Over the previous 5 seasons, that mark is as much as 66.6%. The league has moved up the sector place for touchbacks from the 20-yard line to the 25, including 5 free yards for offenses. With defenses drained after a full sport and one other possession of time beyond regulation, it additionally needs to be simpler to maneuver the ball. Groups would possibly want solely 35 yards on that third drive to get into subject objective vary for kicker.
Make no mistake: Getting the ball third is an monumental benefit if a crew can get there. The “if” is the arduous half.
Argument No. 2: You are not getting the ball again!
“There is no likelihood of getting the ball for a 3rd possession, as a result of whichever crew goes second will simply go for two or make no matter resolution it must make to keep away from letting the opposing crew get the ball again.”
Understanding what you want is the good thing about getting the ball second. For Staff 1, getting the ball third goes to be an even bigger benefit than figuring out what it wants and taking it second, however the trade-off is it would by no means get to comprehend that chance. Going second means Staff 2 all the time get the second-mover benefit on that second possession and it could make its choices accordingly. That is the trade-off being made by selecting first or second. Would you relatively have a smaller benefit you are assured to see or a major benefit you would possibly by no means get to take pleasure in?
The reply depends upon how assured you’re about attending to that third drive, which many have accurately identified shall be influenced by that second-mover benefit. If Staff 2 is aware of Staff 1 can have an enormous benefit on that third possession, Staff 2 needs to be aggressive in making an attempt to high Staff 1 and win on the second possession of the sport. We did not see the Chiefs compelled to any form of significant resolution within the Tremendous Bowl, although they wanted to go for it on fourth-and-1 inside their very own territory to increase the sport.
Will Staff 2 really be that aggressive in actuality? It is arduous to say. That is uncharted territory — Tremendous Bowl LVIII was the primary time beyond regulation playoff sport performed beneath this format — and it is hardly as if coaches are as aggressive because the proof suggests they need to be throughout regulation, which is a sport state everybody’s already aware of and will perceive. It is simpler to consider why this could be a difficulty if we cut up it out by what occurred on Staff 1’s opening possession of time beyond regulation:
Staff 1 does not rating on the opening drive. Nice! Now, Staff 2 has that supreme benefit we talked about on the third possession, but it surely has it on the second possession as an alternative; it could win with a subject objective and does not have to offer the opposing crew an opportunity to match. That is an ideal scenario to be in, and it each makes getting the ball second a extra priceless proposition and will encourage Staff 1 to be extra aggressive than regular on their first possession to keep away from giving Staff 2 that benefit.
2:27
Stephen A. on Shanahan: You need to query if his ‘palms get sweaty’
Stephen A. Smith wonders if 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has the fortitude to win a Tremendous Bowl after blowing one other lead within the huge sport.
On the identical time, there shall be loads of situations through which Staff 2 will get the ball and likewise does not rating, like a sport between two wonderful defenses or in horrible climate circumstances. Perhaps each groups take a sack on their opening drives and find yourself in fourth-and-long and may’t even contemplate going for it. Staff 2 might find yourself failing on a fourth-and-short exterior of subject objective vary, because the Chiefs might have in opposition to the 49ers. They may miss a subject objective.
They may even have a conservative coach who makes suboptimal choices on fourth downs on the whole and leans on “trusting his protection” and punts versus making an attempt a protracted subject objective and working the chance of handing the opposing crew a brief subject. We have seen coaches make inexplicable choices in the course of the common season; in 2022, Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett let the clock run down and tried a 64-yard subject objective down 1 level in Seattle as a result of he thought Brandon McManus’ possibilities of changing had been higher than that of selecting up a fourth-and-5. Do not assume Staff 2’s coach will run issues like he is John Harbaugh or Dan Campbell.
Staff 1 kicks a subject objective on its opening drive. This is the state of affairs that performed out Sunday. The 49ers obtained contained in the pink zone however stalled out when proper guard Spencer Burford whiffed in cross safety, giving Chris Jones a free rush at Purdy and forcing a throwaway. (In my recap of the sport written earlier than the All-22 footage was accessible, I blamed proper sort out Colton McKivitz for the cross safety gaffe; after attending to see the footage, it was extra doubtless Burford’s mistake. That is my unhealthy.) On fourth-and-4, Shanahan despatched out rookie kicker Jake Moody, who hit a 27-yard subject objective to offer the 49ers a 22-19 lead. We’ll discuss extra about Shanahan’s decision-making later, however you recognize what the Chiefs did subsequent.
Trailing by 3 factors, Staff 2 completely needs to be extra aggressive on its opening possession of time beyond regulation. The implied influence of handing the ball again to Staff 1 in a subject goal-and-win scenario ought to justify leaning towards going for it in nearly each marginal scenario, since a landing wins the sport and a subject objective nonetheless leaves Staff 2 as an enormous underdog. Ideally, coaches will modify accordingly, however I have been masking decision-making within the NFL for practically 15 years, and there are nonetheless loads of coaches who worth making a safer resolution that extends the sport over a riskier one that offers them a greater likelihood of profitable.
Let’s take the Tremendous Bowl and alter the info ever so barely for example. On that closing possession of time beyond regulation, Patrick Mahomes hit Rashee Rice on a third-and-6 from the Kansas Metropolis 46-yard line for a 13-yard completion. It could be troublesome to think about a world through which Chiefs vast receivers drop passes, however let’s fake Rice drops that ball. On fourth-and-6 and out of subject objective vary whereas needing no less than a subject objective to increase the sport, the Chiefs would have needed to go for it. No one is arguing that one.
What if that third-and-6 drop got here on the San Francisco 36-yard line? Now, Staff 2 has fourth-and-6 for its season — whereas additionally needing to then rating a subject objective or landing afterwards — or the potential for hitting a 54-yard subject objective and making an attempt to win a sport through which it is not assured to get the ball once more. With Harrison Butker, the Chiefs most likely would be ok with that subject objective, however with Mahomes, they’d additionally doubtless be considering they will convert fourth-and-anything. I suppose coach Andy Reid would go for it, however there are positively groups that kick the sector objective in that scenario.
Transfer the ball ahead 20 extra yards. Now it is fourth-and-6 from the 16-yard line, which suggests a 34-yard subject objective. Over the previous 5 seasons, kickers have transformed 34-yard subject targets just below 90% of the time, and eliminating blowout situations, groups have transformed fourth-and-6 simply over 47% of the time. Even acknowledging that going for it and succeeding places Staff 2 in a significantly better state of affairs than kicking and taking part in protection in opposition to Staff 1, are coaches actually going to cross up one thing near a surefire kick to increase the sport versus a go-for-it alternative that could be one thing under a 50-50 shot?
This is only one state of affairs, however you get the concept: Whereas it might sound simple to imagine Staff 2 will go for it when it trails by a subject objective to keep away from a 3rd possession in time beyond regulation, I imagine there are many situations through which Staff 2 will kick and hand the ball to Staff 1. Even when Staff 2 will get extra aggressive on fourth all the way down to keep away from the third possession, it will additionally fail on a few of these fourth-down makes an attempt, which might hand Staff 1 the victory while not having a 3rd possession.
Staff 1 scores a landing on its opening drive. In a method, this selection is less complicated. Staff 2 shall be going for it on each fourth down, as a result of its selections are a landing or no tomorrow. There is no decision-making wanted in the course of the possession.
If Staff 2 scores a landing, although, there’s an vital resolution to be made. Ought to it go for two to forestall Staff 1 from getting a 3rd possession with an enormous benefit? Within the overwhelming majority of circumstances, sure. Over the previous 5 seasons, groups have transformed simply over 50% of their 2-point tries. If Staff 2 thinks its possibilities of changing a 2-pointer are higher than its possibilities of profitable in opposition to Staff 1 in a third-possession scenario, it is higher off going for two. Whether or not you suppose Staff 2’s possibilities of profitable with out the ball beginning with possession three are 40%, 35%, 30% and even decrease, it is clear the 2-pointer is the higher resolution.
Once more, although, can we assume NFL coaches will really act optimally? It is solely just lately that we have seen some groups heat as much as the concept of going for two whereas down 14 or trying the two-point conversion on their first landing whereas down 15. Even when a crew is a major underdog and would profit from shortening the sport to 1 play, we have usually seen groups kick the additional level after a late landing to tie the sport versus making an attempt to win the competition with a 2-pointer.
As an instance it turns into clear Staff 2 will all the time go for two after scoring a landing to forestall the third possession from occurring. Does it make sense for Staff 1’s technique to react?
Ought to Staff 1 go for two after a landing on the primary drive?
If you wish to speak about a dominating scenario, contemplate what would occur after a Staff 1 landing on the opening drive. If it goes for two and converts, Staff 2 could be compelled to drive the size of the sector, rating a landing after which convert its personal 2-pointer simply to maintain the sport going. If Staff 1 scores eight factors on the opening drive, it is both going to win earlier than touching the ball once more or get the ball again with that wildly advantageous third possession through which it could win with only a subject objective.
Is that value it? As my colleague Seth Walder wrote on Twitter, nearly positively not. If the 2-pointer is a 50-50 proposition and Staff 1 is aware of Staff 2 goes for two if it scores a landing, Staff 1 can kick the additional level and know Staff 2 goes to win 50% of the time if it scores a landing.
If Staff 1 goes for two, it is going to fail 50% of the time after which lose on a Staff 2 landing, since Staff 2 can merely kick an additional level to win. Staff 1 might additionally lose, although, if it converts the 2-pointer, has it matched by Staff 2 after which fails to attain on the third possession. That most likely means Staff 1 loses about 58% of the time if it goes for two and Staff 2 manages to additionally rating a landing.
Given how uncommon playoff time beyond regulation has grow to be, it will take a very long time earlier than any form of playoff meta establishes itself and groups can say with confidence they’re going to know what the opposite crew will do. I feel it is protected to say Staff 1 needs to be fearful Staff 2 will go for two if each rating a landing, however you possibly can’t say Staff 2 will in each scenario, given how coaches usually deal with related conditions. Until Staff 1 is really a dominant crew from 2 yards out, it has to take going for two on the opening rating off the desk.
What do analytics say in regards to the resolution?
As revealed by the 2 sides of Sunday’s sport, depends upon who you ask. Shanahan stated after the sport the 49ers’ analytics division instructed he select to take the primary possession in time beyond regulation. The Chiefs had been thrilled to get the ball second, which was apparently Chiefs statistical evaluation coordinator Mike Frazier’s recommendation to Reid to pick out if Kansas Metropolis received the toss. The Chiefs and the 49ers are two of the NFL’s most revered organizations, so how might their respective analytics departments come to completely different conclusions?
That might be the case if there wasn’t a lot of a distinction between the 2 choices. When ESPN’s Brian Burke constructed a mannequin to check the brand new time beyond regulation guidelines in 2022, he discovered that Staff 1 received 50.3% of the time if Staff 2 did not go for two after it scored a landing. That mark fell to 50.2% if Staff 2 all the time went for two after scoring, denying Staff 1 a possibility for a 3rd possession.
When Walder took a casual ballot of NFL analytics staff after Tremendous Bowl LVIII, the outcomes had been cut up. 4 individuals had their opinion at nearly 50-50. Three leaned towards taking the ball first. Three others felt assured they most well-liked taking the ball second. With all that in thoughts, it is no shock that we landed on two groups with two completely different opinions about what represented optimum technique with the time beyond regulation coin toss.
It is also vital to regulate these fashions for the sport scenario and groups and gamers concerned. Whereas these changes won’t lead to dramatically completely different adjustments to the findings and conversations above, there are allowances groups would possibly need to make once they’re taking part in in opposition to a quarterback like Mahomes. Many have instructed Shanahan obtained that fallacious.
Argument No. 3: However Mahomes is on the opposite facet!
“Shanahan screwed up as a result of he gave the ball to Mahomes with the possibility to win the sport with a landing.”
This isn’t so simple as some individuals have made it out to be. In fact, no crew desires to be defending for its playoff lives in opposition to Mahomes, however that is a scenario that might be scary whether or not the crew faces him on the primary or second drive. If the 49ers had taken the ball second, they might have been sending out a gassed protection that had simply confronted an 11-play drive within the two-minute drill. Had the Chiefs scored a landing as Staff 1, individuals would have been criticizing Shanahan for placing all of the strain on Purdy, his second-year quarterback, to match Mahomes with a landing.
Letting Mahomes go second gave the Chiefs the benefit of being extra aggressive on fourth down, which makes their offense scarier than it will be throughout a typical drive. Each crew’s higher with an additional down, however the Chiefs and their ruthless effectivity could be much more devastating if Reid might open up the playbook on second and third down whereas figuring out he would go for it on fourth down. If Mahomes and Reid had wanted a landing, they might have been extra prone to rating than they might be on a typical drive, if solely by advantage of getting that further play of their pocket.
With that being stated, as Tim Cowlishaw identified on “Across the Horn” on Monday, it is not as if the Chiefs’ offense had been marching up and down the sector all sport. Their solely landing earlier than time beyond regulation got here on a brief subject after a muffed punt. After scoring on the primary two drives within the AFC title sport in opposition to the Ravens, the Chiefs had gone 19 consecutive drives beginning on their very own facet of the sector with out changing a single one right into a landing. Whereas Mahomes undoubtedly deserves credit score for coming by at an important doable second, he and the Chiefs had been making an attempt to attain on a kind of lengthy drives earlier than time beyond regulation, too. Treating a Kansas Metropolis landing on the second possession as a lock is overconfidence.
Whereas it seems like Mahomes all the time comes by in these conditions, there are situations through which he has been lower than automated. His final drive in playoff time beyond regulation was in the course of the 2021 season, when he and the Chiefs went to time beyond regulation within the AFC Championship Sport in opposition to the Bengals. The Chiefs received the toss and will have received the sport with a landing, however Mahomes threw an interception on the third play, and Cincinnati drove into subject objective vary and kicked its strategy to Tremendous Bowl LVI.
The Chiefs most likely would have gone for two if the groups had traded touchdowns, and relying on the way you take a look at it, that might have been an issue for the 49ers. Over the previous 5 seasons, Kansas Metropolis has transformed a league-best 75% of its 2-point tries. I am going to additionally observe it has tried solely 12 over that stretch, tied for the second fewest of any crew. (Solely the 49ers have tried fewer.) A few of that’s not often trailing and needing 2-pointers, however we have additionally all seen the Chiefs make sloppy errors contained in the 5-yard line, even in the course of the Mahomes period and as just lately as Mecole Hardman’s touchback in opposition to the Payments within the divisional spherical.
Argument No. 4: Shanahan tousled on his time beyond regulation drive!
“The 49ers ought to have gone for it on fourth-and-4 as an alternative of kicking a subject objective.”
Now we’re speaking! After the sport, when requested in regards to the resolution to kick a subject objective on fourth-and-4 in time beyond regulation, Shanahan instantly shot down the concept. “We by no means considered it there on fourth-and-4,” he advised reporters. “Even when we do go and rating, they nonetheless can go down and match it and so there wasn’t a thought there.” (Shanahan famously stated the identical factor about not going for a fourth-and-2 in opposition to the Rams within the 2021 NFC Championship Sport, a choice that each got here again to chew him and was a notable error by win chance fashions.)
Nicely, maintain on a second, Kyle! It is true that the Chiefs can go down and match a landing with a landing, however matching a landing is much more troublesome than matching a subject objective. As well as, the 49ers had gone for and transformed a fourth-and-3 in the identical vary earlier within the sport on a drive that finally produced their second landing. On the very least, this looks as if it was value extra thought than Shanahan instructed.
If Shanahan’s objective was to get time beyond regulation to a 3rd possession as instructed in his justification for taking the Staff 1 possibility, it is nearly definitely higher to attain a landing than it’s to kick a subject objective, because it’s tougher to match 7 factors than 3. The potential for the Chiefs scoring a landing and going for two is actual — and the 49ers would possibly hope to anchor Kansas Metropolis towards kicking a subject objective by going up 3 (in the best way that groups that kick a subject objective to go up 6 late in regulation usually damage their probabilities by incentivizing the opposite crew to go for a game-winning landing versus a game-tying subject objective) — however I nonetheless suppose Shanahan ought to and would have appreciated his possibilities of profitable up 7 versus up 3.
As for the fourth-down play itself, it is not as if the 49ers had been hopeless in that scenario. That they had managed to get each Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk open for potential touchdowns on the earlier third-and-4 play, just for the cross safety to fail as talked about earlier. Shanahan referred to as for a novel play-action safety that had middle Jake Brendel come out to dam the sting on the left facet, with Trent Williams and Aaron Banks working inside. Security Justin Reid blitzed and would have been Purdy’s duty both approach, however provided that the breakdown on the fitting facet led to Jones working free and blowing up the play, it is arduous to argue the safety was the fitting name on the proper time.
Shanahan stated he wasn’t serious about going for it on fourth-and-4, and that is the place his mistake got here in. On third down, the 49ers got here out in 11 personnel (one working again, one tight finish and three vast receivers), and the Chiefs matched with their dime personnel package deal (six defensive backs). There wasn’t even a pretense of working the ball, as Purdy lined up in empty and had Christian McCaffrey transfer throughout the formation in movement.
The league’s most aggressive fourth-down offenses acquire a bonus on third down by being prepared to run in conditions through which groups usually throw the ball. Third-and-4 (and even longer) is usually a run down for the Eagles, Lions and Ravens, as a result of they’re comfy both selecting up the primary down or going for it on fourth-and-short. In 2023, on third down with 3-to-5 yards to go in video games through which every crew nonetheless had no less than a 20% win chance, Shanahan referred to as 16 passes on 17 performs. The Lions referred to as 29 passes on 39 performs. The Eagles referred to as 24 passes on 41 performs. Purdy is not Jalen Hurts, however the 49ers have an ideal dashing assault, and the Chiefs aren’t an ideal run protection, even when they had been higher than anticipated in opposition to San Francisco.
Shanahan has run on third-and-long earlier than, with Raheem Mostert’s third-and-8 entice in opposition to the Packers within the 2019 NFC Championship Sport as a well-known instance, but when he wasn’t serious about going for it on fourth down, it had an influence on his third-down name. Working the ball on that third-and-4 might have transformed by itself. It additionally might have arrange a fourth-and-short that might have tipped the scales towards going for it and doubtlessly changing for a landing. The larger difficulty with what occurred on third down was the cross safety, but when Shanahan was extra open towards going for it on fourth-and-short, the 49ers could be a extra dynamic offense on third down. With out figuring out how issues would play out, the 49ers most likely would have been higher off working on third-and-4, particularly given how the Chiefs matched with their personnel.
Was Shanahan proper to go first? What ought to groups do going ahead?
Anybody who tells you Shanahan clearly made the fallacious selection is simply too assured. No, we could not have identified Mahomes would rating a landing when the Chiefs had gone seven quarters with out a lengthy TD drive. No, we do not know whether or not the Chiefs would have really gone for it each fourth down whereas down 3 factors or gone for two if the groups had matched touchdowns, denying Shanahan the good thing about the third-possession benefit. Handing Mahomes the ball second is not empirically worse than having him contact it first, particularly provided that the 49ers’ protection had simply come off the sector. There’s by no means time to face Mahomes in time beyond regulation.
That is actually the primary time we have ever seen this time beyond regulation format play out. Assuming each fourth down and every decision-making state of affairs will play out the best way it did on this first time beyond regulation and utilizing that to guage Shanahan’s selection is not a wise strategy to strategy decision-making, any greater than it will be to imagine Mahomes is doomed to fail as a result of he threw that interception in time beyond regulation in opposition to the Bengals within the 2021 playoffs. I’ve taken main points with Shanahan’s conservative decision-making up to now, and I want he’d dealt with the third-and-4 in a different way, however these are completely different conversations from selecting to be Staff 1 or Staff 2 in time beyond regulation.
With out being caught up within the mystique, the best approach for Shanahan to weigh issues would have been to think about two key elements. Wouldn’t it be worse for him to ship a drained protection again on the sector after it had simply run round throughout an 11-play two-minute drill, or to offer Mahomes an additional play to work with if the Chiefs wanted a landing to tie the sport? With out figuring out how issues really panned out, I can see an argument for each side. I would lean extra towards being Staff 2 than I did the night time of the choice, however there’s not a transparent and apparent right reply.
As for what groups ought to do sooner or later, given how shut every relative possibility is by way of anticipated win price, I’d guess the smooth elements associated to every particular person sport most likely play a major function in figuring out what the perfect resolution would seem like.
If I received the coin toss, I might need to be Staff 1 and get the ball first in a low-scoring sport. The worst factor that may occur to Staff 1 is a landing by Staff 2 on the second possession of time beyond regulation, since that landing will both win the sport or permit Staff 2 to strive a 2-pointer to win the sport. (As I lined earlier, Staff 1 might go for two on its opening landing drive, however that is a negative-EV thought.)
If Staff 1 feels assured it could both match a subject objective or maintain Staff 2 scoreless, take the opening possession and it’ll doubtless reap the advantages of that extremely priceless third possession. There’s additionally an honest likelihood the crew finally ends up getting yet another possession than the opposing crew if time beyond regulation extends deep into the second quarter of time beyond regulation. We will not assure that what occurred in regulation will proceed to play out in time beyond regulation, but when a crew has an ideal protection or thinks the possibilities of a landing from Staff 2 on its opening drive of time beyond regulation aren’t excessive, going first might be the fitting transfer.
1:26
Orlovsky: Shanahan gave away management of the sport in OT
Dan Orlovsky discusses Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ resolution to take the ball first in time beyond regulation.
Alternatively, I might need to be Staff 2 and get the ball second in a high-scoring sport or one through which I felt I had an ideal offense and was assured about scoring a landing on the second drive of time beyond regulation. Staff 2 would get the good thing about figuring out what it wants, which could be as little as a subject objective if it stops Staff 1 on the opening possession. Staff 2 can management the sport with a landing on the second possession of time beyond regulation, which can both finish the sport in its favor or permit it to go for two and win the sport with out ever getting Staff 1 its third-possession benefit. Staff 2 would spend your complete drive beneath the strain of figuring out one mistake can finish its season, but when it has an ideal quarterback, attending to play your complete drive with a transparent head about strategy fourth downs is extraordinarily priceless.
There’s one exception right here. In video games through which there’s unhealthy climate with vital wind having an influence on one facet of the sector, I might decide the facet with the wind to my again and let the opposing crew select whether or not it desires the ball first. Most time beyond regulation video games will finish within the first quarter, giving the crew with the wind an enormous benefit by way of subject objective distance and subject place for what could be the whole lot of the additional interval. That might outweigh the marginal profit of selecting to get the ball first or second.
Given these preferences, each groups’ time beyond regulation preferences make sense. The 49ers had been taking part in a low-scoring sport and had stopped the Chiefs from producing lengthy landing drives all sport. The Chiefs had a quarterback they believed was unstoppable. In the long run, what occurred in time beyond regulation got here all the way down to execution, not the coin-flip selection.
