The San Francisco 49ers might need misplaced Tremendous Bowl LVIII to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs however they enter 2024 as the perfect workforce in soccer and favorites to win Tremendous Bowl LIX, in response to ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI). The 49ers’ edge in high quality over the Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs is slender, however as a result of San Francisco performs within the weaker NFC, its championship possibilities (16%) are notably larger than every other membership.
The Soccer Energy Index is our rankings and projection mannequin for NFL groups. Within the preseason, the mannequin’s total predictive rankings are based mostly totally on win totals from ESPN BET along with every workforce’s schedule — together with elements such because the power distinction between a workforce’s beginning and backup quarterback and a revamped particular groups score based mostly totally on new predictive kicker rankings. We use these workforce rankings to simulate the season hundreds of instances, creating our projections.
In the course of the season, rankings evolve based mostly on how groups carry out on offense, protection and particular groups — together with quarterback efficiency and adjustments. Along with up to date rankings, sport predictions are additionally affected by home-field benefit and relaxation differentials.
So let’s dive into the 2024 season.
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Rankings | Tremendous Bowl | AFC East
Falcons | Draft order | Harbaugh | Bounce-back groups
49ers are the favorites
Although San Francisco fell quick in time beyond regulation on the Tremendous Bowl, there isn’t any mistaking its elite play all through the 2023 season. Postseason included, the 49ers have been clearly the perfect offense when it comes to EPA per play at 0.15, solidly forward of the Buffalo Payments (0.12) and the Dallas Cowboys (0.11). Pairing that with a top-10 protection made the 49ers the greatest workforce in soccer in FPI’s thoughts, even when they did not win.
First take a look at FPI rankings for the 2024 NFL season. pic.twitter.com/6eQF5hshMS
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) Could 29, 2024
There’s little cause to imagine that can change in 2024. We will debate the true division of credit score between quarterback Brock Purdy, coach Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ plethora of proficient talent place gamers, nevertheless it all provides as much as a championship contender so long as operating again Christian McCaffrey, broad receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel and tight finish George Kittle stay wholesome and productive. The defensive leaders — finish Nick Bosa, sort out Javon Hargrave, linebacker Fred Warner and cornerback Charvarius Ward — additionally return.
That each one makes the 49ers FPI’s No. 1 workforce. And when coupled with the NFC nonetheless being weaker on common (by about 0.8 factors per sport in FPI score) than the AFC, it leaves an open path for the 49ers to return to the Tremendous Bowl. San Francisco has a 25% probability to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl and a 16% probability to win it — each greatest within the league. The favourite having a 16% probability to win the Tremendous Bowl is roughly on par with earlier variations of FPI, because it’s fifth-highest share amongst preseason favorites over the previous 10 years.
May we be headed for a Tremendous Bowl rematch?
Any singular Tremendous Bowl matchup is unlikely to happen. However this 12 months, the most possible Tremendous Bowl matchup is a rematch of final season. One other Chiefs-49ers contest has a 6% probability of occurring, per FPI. That quantity is fueled by the power of the 49ers’ projections, plus the Chiefs being the highest workforce within the AFC.
Although Baltimore is correct behind Kansas Metropolis in total FPI score, its possibilities to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl lag behind the Chiefs (24% to 17%) as a result of the Ravens play in a a lot more durable division. The Ravens have solely a 46% probability to win the AFC North (in comparison with 74% probability for the Chiefs within the West) and their probability to land the No. 1 seed is eighteen% to the Chiefs’ 24%. That mentioned, Ravens-49ers is the second-most possible Tremendous Bowl matchup at 4%.
The 4 almost certainly AFC Championship Video games all concerned the Chiefs towards different contenders — the Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Payments and Houston Texans — with the Miami Dolphins the one different workforce to crack a top-10 AFC Championship conflict. The 49ers, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Cowboys are within the majority of the almost certainly NFC Championship Recreation matchups, although the Inexperienced Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons labored their manner into the highest 10.
Who takes the AFC East?
It is nonetheless Buffalo’s division to lose. Though the Payments have main questions at broad receiver, the New York Jets have a wholesome Aaron Rodgers and a strengthened roster, and the Dolphins stay a risk. FPI nonetheless sees the incumbent Payments as the favourite as a 44% probability to win the sturdy division. Miami is subsequent at 31% whereas the Jets are third at 25%.
That breakdown is fascinating given the hype and cautious optimism across the Jets — and since New York has the best schedule of the three groups whereas Buffalo has the toughest. Basically, FPI believes the Payments could have a high-end offense even with out receiver Stefon Diggs, with Josh Allen taking part in behind a strong offensive line.
The one workforce with out a shot? The New England Patriots. It is no shock given the workforce’s present standing. FPI provides New England lower than a 1% probability to win the division and solely a 2% probability to succeed in the playoffs. The Patriots have the toughest power of schedule within the NFL this 12 months, however when you ask me these projections nonetheless really feel a little overconfident forecasting New England’s failure. Who’s to say rookie quarterback and No. 3 choose Drake Maye cannot be good immediately?
Can Kirk Cousins lead the Falcons to a division title?
Based on FPI, it is greater than possible. With Cousins strolling into the woebegone NFC South, Atlanta is ready as much as take the division — regardless of the Falcons burning the No. 8 total choose on one other quarterback. Although FPI is not overly keen on Atlanta — it considers the Falcons the Fifteenth-best workforce within the NFL — it is nonetheless clearly the highest workforce within the division with the Bucs (twenty second), Saints (twenty sixth) and Panthers (thirty second) lagging.
Atlanta is projected to win 9.6 video games, the very best of any workforce exterior FPI’s high 10, as a result of it has the best schedule within the league by a wholesome margin.
Patriots and Panthers almost certainly groups on the clock
New England’s league-topping power of schedule mixed with FPI’s skepticism relating to its roster has the mannequin believing the Patriots are the almost certainly workforce to choose first within the 2025 NFL draft, with a 22% probability. The Panthers charge decrease than the Patriots in FPI, however their probability at choosing No. 1 is barely worse (21%).
If Carolina finally ends up incomes the No. 1 choose once more (it might get to make use of it this time), it can possible be on the lookout for Bryce Younger’s successor — although it stays to be seen whether or not there is a 2025 quarterback worthy.
The Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans and New York Giants spherical out the highest 5 for possibilities of touchdown the highest choose.
Will Chargers take a leap below Jim Harbaugh?
FPI shouldn’t be satisfied! The mannequin provides L.A. a barely unfavorable score and ranks the Chargers 18th total. A part of that’s because of the Chargers dropping receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, plus a protection that ranked twenty ninth in EPA per play final season. Nonetheless, Jim Harbaugh plus Justin Herbert equaling (simply) under common was surprising to see.
There may be upside, although. The Chargers have a forty five% probability to succeed in the playoffs and a 19% shot at wrestling the AFC West title from the Chiefs. However the odds that Harbaugh turns this workforce round in a single season are low in response to the mannequin, with 3% and 1% possibilities to succeed in and win the Tremendous Bowl, respectively.
Can Eagles, Jaguars overcome 2023 collapses?
FPI is a believer within the Eagles. Regardless of the workforce falling aside and dropping six of its last seven video games final season — together with a 32-9 blowout loss to the Buccaneers within the wild-card spherical — the mannequin is backing the Eagles because the fourth-best workforce within the NFC behind the 49ers, Lions and Cowboys and makes them slender favorites to win the NFC East (49%). The Eagles nonetheless have the muse of a contender, with good or nice gamers at vital positions akin to quarterback, sort out, broad receiver and alongside the line of defense. They’ve additionally added new coordinators.
As for the Jacksonville Jaguars? FPI is rather more skeptical. Jacksonville ranks sixteenth and has only a 22% probability to win its division because of its lukewarm power score and the ascendence of the Texans (and maybe the Indianapolis Colts) at a time when the Jaguars seem stagnant.
