If the 2024 NFL offseason will likely be remembered for something, it will likely be the tempest of large receiver contract negotiation. The season is mere weeks away, and we’re nowhere close to finished. Maintain-ins persist for CeeDee Lamb in Dallas, Ja’Marr Chase in Cincinnati, and most importantly, Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco. The 26-year-old has but to go well with up for camp as his request to be traded has publicly unfolded over the previous few weeks.
I am no good at dissecting Instagram posts or sourcing contract particulars — I will depart each noble pursuits to their respective consultants. What I can do is attempt to reply some questions on Aiyuk, the participant: Simply how good of a large receiver is he, actually? And concerning the San Francisco staff that’s making an attempt to maintain him within the constructing: Simply how badly do the 49ers want him?
Here is my learn on what Aiyuk means for the staff he is making an attempt to depart, and the staff that may purchase him, as this saga continues:
Leap to a bit:
One of the best comp for Aiyuk’s spectacular 2023 season
Why is Aiyuk’s contract scenario so contentious?
Sooo … ought to the 49ers commerce Aiyuk?
Simply how good is Aiyuk?
Contextualizing the greatness of an NFL receiver presents a a lot greater problem than you may count on. The place is oversaturated with expertise, which warps our perspective.
Here is an instance: The Fifteenth-best quarterback within the league is somebody like Kirk Cousins or Jared Goff; the Fifteenth-best go rusher is somebody like Alex Highsmith or Rashan Gary. However the Fifteenth-best large receiver is nearer to Mike Evans, who has produced 10 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, or Amari Cooper, who simply had 1,250 receiving yards on the Browns’ quarterback carousel final season. That is how good the place is. When Jeremy Fowler surveyed league personnel for his or her rating of the highest 10 large receivers, a complete of 29 names obtained at the least one vote forged their approach. The cream of the receiver crop has by no means been richer.
In Fowler’s survey, Aiyuk debuted at Tenth on the again of his greatest skilled season: 1,342 yards on 75 catches with seven scores. That may not look stellar at first brush — Tyreek Hill had 1,800 receiving yards final season — nevertheless it’s not the uncooked output that is spectacular. It is the effectivity.
Aiyuk averaged 3.3 yards per route run, which is the fourth-best quantity for a large receiver since 2010. Yards per route run is a secure metric that rewards a receiver for a number of issues: incomes plenty of targets on the routes he runs, catching plenty of these targets and getting plenty of yards out of these catches. Aiyuk was particularly good on the final one. A whopping 37.3% of his catches had been explosive performs, receptions that went for at the least a 20-yard achieve. That is the most effective explosive play fee for a high-volume receiver (greater than 100 targets) since Allen Robinson in 2015.
Maybe extra critically, Aiyuk was not only a shot-play artist. Whereas he is a blistering deep risk with game-breaking velocity, he was not used as a field-stretching WR2 driving sidecar to the high-volume stick-moving WR1. He led the 49ers in targets and receptions, and his catch fee is simply as significant as his explosive play fee. He hauled in 72.1% of his targets. (The league-average wideout caught 63 of his targets in 2023.)
Take into consideration that for a second. A receiver with a excessive share of explosive receptions is often getting dangerous downfield targets that predict a low catch fee, however Aiyuk simply bucked that pattern. Here is each large receiver season with at the least 100 targets since 2010. Take a look at the place Aiyuk’s 2023 season lands. It is nearly alone in its marriage of explosiveness and effectivity:
We simply noticed one of the vital efficient receiver seasons … ever. By the numbers, an Aiyuk route final season was extra harmful than any Calvin Johnson route, any Julio Jones route, any Davante Adams route.
That merely would not go the sniff check, nevertheless. Aiyuk’s numbers may need been historic, however the league ranked him because the Tenth-best receiver proper now. His expertise pops off the display, certain. However solely as glorious — not as distinctive.
Aiyuk has benefitted from enormous inflation within the manufacturing achievable on the place. Of the 5 greatest single seasons by yards per route run, three got here from 2023, and one of many remaining two got here from 2022. Effectivity is climbing at the same time as uncooked quantity is climbing: We all know that the league is passing the soccer greater than ever, and doing so extra efficiently. There have been 27 1,000-yard receivers final season, which is probably the most the league has ever produced.
Aiyuk was additionally traditionally explosive and environment friendly … on a traditionally explosive and environment friendly offense. Since 2010, solely the 2013 Eagles had a greater explosive go fee than the 2023 49ers. Whereas loads of that credit score definitely belongs to Aiyuk, it is powerful to disregard George Kittle as soon as once more main tight ends in explosive catch fee (27.7%) or Deebo Samuel’s 25% explosive catch fee, an astonishing quantity, contemplating his targets had been a lot shallower (6.78 air yards per goal) than Aiyuk’s (13.95).
This can be a chicken-and-egg downside. Aiyuk’s expertise is the rising tide, and it lifts the boats of Kittle and Samuel, who should not bona fide WR1s like Aiyuk. Samuel is a gadget participant made excellent in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, however he’s at his greatest on shallow targets or designed screens — Shanahan could not give him Aiyuk’s menu of downfield routes and count on him to dominate. When he’s paired with Aiyuk, he will get touches extra curated for his talent set, as does Kittle.
The farthest Samuel ever went downfield in a single season was 2021, when he averaged 8.75 air yards per goal — nonetheless, greater than half of his yardage got here after the catch, and solely 30% of his receptions had been explosives. That is an incredible season, however not similar to what Aiyuk did in 2023, or how Aiyuk was used. One of the best comparability — although we do not have a ton of route-specific knowledge to emphasise it — is the 2016 season Julio Jones delivered underneath Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta. It wasn’t Jones’ greatest season for quantity, however for effectivity and explosiveness, it was Aiyuk-esque. (And, not for nothing, it was one other Tremendous Bowl yr for Shanahan’s staff. Do not ask what occurred subsequent.)
So Aiyuk seemingly unlocks an echelon of the 49ers’ offense for everybody — Samuel, Kittle, and even quarterback Brock Purdy (as we’ll see under) — that they in any other case wouldn’t attain. However by the identical token, it is nearly sure Aiyuk wouldn’t set practically as traditionally important numbers if he had been on a remarkably worse offense. That is necessary, contemplating he very effectively might find yourself on a remarkably worse offense by the point the week is out.
Why is Aiyuk’s contract scenario so contentious?
In a large receiver market so saturated with expertise and ballooning manufacturing, many younger wideouts can argue that they seem to be a high man — and high guys are getting paid. That is why the place noticed a market-topping extension for Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions), which was instantly leapfrogged by a market-topping extension for A.J. Brown (Eagles), which was then leapfrogged by a market-topping extension for Justin Jefferson (Vikings).
It is why Tee Higgins (Bengals) requested a commerce earlier than succumbing to the franchise tag, and why teammate Ja’Marr Chase is holding in (and, currently, holding out) for a contract extension of his personal. It is why Hill (Dolphins) and Cooper (Browns) and Courtland Sutton (Broncos) all obtained their present contracts buffed throughout coaching camp — the highest of the market has grown so quick that offers signed simply two offseasons in the past are going stale.
Because the market explodes, 49ers common supervisor John Lynch has been painted right into a nook. The 49ers cannot argue they will solely carry one top-of-market large receiver deal, as a result of the Eagles have two huge contracts in Brown and DeVonta Smith, and the Dolphins have the identical with Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Waddle and Smith had been each drafted in 2021, a yr after Aiyuk, so San Francisco cannot actually contend that Aiyuk ought to wait out his fifth-year choice, both. It’s cheap that he desires to be paid now, even with Samuel’s $28.6 million cap hit sitting on the books.
And contemplating Aiyuk’s towering 2023 manufacturing, crafting the argument for him to grow to be the league’s top-paid receiver is not very onerous. He has gotten higher in every of his 4 seasons as a professional. He was probably the most explosive receiver and one of many three most effective wideouts in soccer final season. If we actually strap on our agent hat, we will even declare he’s the rationale Purdy has been so profitable. Since Purdy took over because the 49ers’ starter in 2022, Aiyuk has been his most dear goal. Amongst all of San Francisco’s terrifying weapons, Aiyuk is the most effective at turning a Purdy goal right into a profitable play, a primary down or an explosive play:
That is removed from an hermetic argument. The best rationalization for Purdy’s explosion coinciding with Aiyuk’s emergence is simply that: coincidence. Simply as Aiyuk was coming into his bodily prime and escaping Shanahan’s doghouse, the place he spent a lot of the 2021 season, Purdy stumbled into the beginning job and introduced downfield aggressiveness that incumbent QB Jimmy Garoppolo lacked. That is one other chicken-and-egg downside that makes discerning simply how precious Aiyuk is to the 49ers very, very difficult.
In that spirit, let’s forged apart our agent hat and exchange it with a common supervisor one. If I used to be in John Lynch’s seat, negotiating with Aiyuk and his agent, I would not deliver up the Purdy stats. As a substitute, I would deliver up these of Texans WR Nico Collins.
Collins loved a 2023 breakout very similar to Aiyuk, maybe one much more stunning. However Collins is only one yr youthful than Aiyuk and fills a really related position. Below Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who got here from San Francisco and runs an offense paying homage to Shanahan’s, Collins is similar major receiver that Aiyuk is for the 49ers. Let’s examine the manufacturing of the 2 younger gamers:
It is value noting the variations: Collins obtained shallower targets and produced extra yards after the catch, whereas Aiyuk obtained targets additional downfield with much less YAC. However there’ll at all times be variations between two receivers, even in related roles in related offenses. The connective tissue right here is as robust because it will get within the NFL.
After all, in a vacuum, this is not actually a difficulty. Collins being very, superb would not change the truth that Aiyuk can be very, superb. Each ought to get huge fats contracts to replicate their current excellence and rosy futures.
The problem is Collins simply signed a contract extension. With one yr left on his earlier deal, he signed a three-year, $72.75 million extension in Could, a median of solely $24.25 million per yr. And if the phrases “solely $24.25 million per yr” appear completely preposterous to you, I get it, however Collins took lower than Smith obtained on his extension in April. That $24.25 million common ranked seventh amongst receivers on the time it was signed, and has solely been kicked additional down the record by newer extensions. It is this contract that may give me pause earlier than handing Aiyuk a clean verify.
I do not know precisely what contract Aiyuk is pursuing from the 49ers, however ESPN’s Mike Reiss reported that the Patriots had been prepared to pay Aiyuk $32 million per yr ought to he settle for a commerce to the Patriots (Aiyuk declined). That is top-three WR cash, and it is cheap to count on the 49ers and Aiyuk are negotiating someplace in that vary.
Once more, it is sensible that Aiyuk desires that cash. All the opposite younger receivers round him are getting paid, or are holding out to get it finished. However the riddle for Lynch to resolve is that this: What share of Aiyuk’s manufacturing belongs to his particular person excellence, his expertise degree? What share of it’s the results of taking part in on an elite offense with so many different weapons to account for? And what number of it’s the results of taking part in for maybe the preeminent offensive thoughts of this technology?
The success of Collins is a cautionary story. Perhaps it is a lot simpler to be a extremely environment friendly and explosive receiver on this position than it seems. Perhaps succeeding on this place warrants $24 million per yr, not $34 million — top-10 large receiver cash, not top-three.
Even in opposition to an ever-rising cap ceiling, that $10 million shouldn’t be an insignificant quantity for San Francisco. The approaching Purdy extension looms over their checkbooks. As a result of Purdy was not a first-round choose, he has no fifth-year choice hooked up to his contract; his four-year deal is up after the 2025 season, and he is eligible for an extension in March.
Simply because the large receiver market is booming, so too is the quarterback market. Tua Tagovailoa simply obtained $53.1 million per yr for aptly quarterbacking a high-octane Shanahan-inspired offense in Miami. Jordan Love obtained $55 million per yr for one season of beginning. You assume Purdy, who has been to 2 convention championship video games and one Tremendous Bowl, is taking something lower than these colossal figures? With one other playoff run and a possible Dak Prescott free agent marketing campaign inflating the market additional, Purdy could be a $60 million man by this time subsequent yr.
It is not not possible to work across the huge quarterback extension. As soon as once more, these pesky Eagles discovered room within the books, extending Jalen Hurts alongside Brown and Smith. The Dolphins have Tagovailoa with Waddle and Hill. Nevertheless it requires monetary finagling. Groups need to borrow from future years with intelligent constructions. And ultimately, they will attain essential mass. The 49ers cannot have a high deal with contract (Trent Williams) and high go rusher contract (Nick Bosa) and high defensive deal with contract (Javon Hargrave) and high linebacker contract (Fred Warner) and high working again contract (Christian McCaffrey) and high tight finish contract (Kittle) after they wish to carry a high quarterback contract and two high large receiver contracts. One thing’s gotta give.
Ought to the 49ers commerce Aiyuk?
Most likely not. He is an incredible younger participant who might nonetheless be getting even higher, has apparent chemistry with Purdy and is nice within the offense. Clearly, because the 49ers get tight in opposition to the cap, they need to examine each alternative to get cheaper and accumulate premier draft capital. I’ve little question that, even when Aiyuk had been fortunately working towards and prepared to play on his fifth-year choice, they might have been tossing across the thought of buying and selling him, simply to see the market.
What I can say with certainty is that this: San Francisco shouldn’t commerce him underneath these situations. It’s the center of August, for heaven’s sake. The 49ers, who would nonetheless very a lot like to win the Tremendous Bowl that has maddeningly eluded Shanahan for a few years, are the favorites to signify the NFC as soon as once more. To commerce away their best offensive weapon from 2023, their quarterback’s favourite goal, can be foolish at any time — however particularly so this near this season, when there’s little time to onboard substitute receivers or regulate the offense to Aiyuk’s absence.
Aiyuk can be utilizing the leverage of his coaching camp maintain in to maneuver a commerce to the Steelers, which is damaging to the 49ers’ leverage in commerce negotiations. Once more, that is effectively inside his rights: He’s not compelled to cheerily hop, skip and leap to no matter franchise the Lynch and Shanahan select to toss him to, which is why he axed the cope with the Patriots.
Aiyuk has displayed clear curiosity in two groups: the Steelers and the Commanders. The Commanders make sense, as he performed with rookie QB Jayden Daniels at Arizona State. (You learn that proper: Aiyuk, who’s coming into his fifth season as a professional, performed with Daniels, who’s a rookie.) However the Steelers … do not actually make a lot sense. Their quarterback room is a fairly miserable battle between declining veteran Russell Wilson and first-round disappointment Justin Fields. Even when the quarterback play had been satisfactory, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are likely to favor a run-heavy offensive philosophy: grind the protection down, eat some clock, management the ball and belief the protection to complete the job. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is minimize from an analogous fabric. Whereas there are some schematic similarities between the Shanahan offense and the projected Pittsburgh offense, there’s a enormous distinction in philosophy and likewise in, uh, goodness.
Why would Aiyuk wish to go to Pittsburgh so fervently that every one different suitors have fallen away? Sure, that features the Commanders, who’ve apparently eliminated themselves from the Aiyuk sweepstakes. I am actually undecided. Respect for Tomlin, a beloved gamers coach? A faint reminiscence of the Russ who cooked within the mid-2010s?
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Are the Steelers the most effective touchdown spot for Brandon Aiyuk?
Mike Tannenbaum joins “First Take” to debate potential locations for 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk.
Regardless of the supply, the 49ers have been compelled right into a one-team marketplace for Aiyuk, and that makes it practically not possible to get a good worth on a commerce. A primary-round choose was the centerpiece of the 2022 offers that despatched A.J. Brown from Tennessee to Philadelphia and Marquise Brown from Baltimore to Arizona, two gamers on rookie offers and in want of massive extensions, as Aiyuk is. I am assured Aiyuk is a much better participant than Marquise Brown was then, and he could be on the degree A.J. Brown was earlier than Brown took one other step with the Eagles.
There hasn’t been any agency reporting on the commerce bundle Pittsburgh has submitted. I do not see how the 49ers might have cajoled a first-rounder out of the Steelers, who’re notoriously shy merchants, given their lack of leverage all through this complete course of. If this deal will get finished, I wager you the Steelers made out like bandits.
However this deal won’t get finished! The 49ers do not wish to commerce Aiyuk. The 2 sides are nonetheless negotiating a long-term extension. May the 49ers actually hold Aiyuk in any case this drama?
It is much less preposterous than you may assume. Keep in mind, earlier than Samuel obtained his extension from the 49ers in 2022, he demanded a commerce and froze contract talks with the staff, a lot as Aiyuk did this summer time. The character of the divide was just a little totally different: Samuel was taking working again snaps and working again hits, and he was appropriately anxious about his profession longevity if his utilization within the offense did not change. The large receiver surroundings was just a little totally different, too — this was a time when high receivers made solely $25 million per yr, and we had little cords that linked our telephones to the wall, and fuel was 5 cents a gallon, and so forth. However ultimately, the deal obtained finished.
Funnily sufficient, if Aiyuk truly does stick with San Francisco on an unlimited extension, Samuel seemingly turns into a commerce candidate. Each had been rumored to be on the commerce market throughout the NFL draft in April, so if the 49ers decide to Aiyuk in the long run, they will be on the lookout for alternatives to dump Samuel for some cap reduction. They would not leap on the first supply — Samuel remains to be solely 28, is uniquely suited to a Shanahan offense, and with $52.8 million in cap hits over the subsequent two seasons, is fairly good worth within the WR market — however they’d have to choose up the telephone if somebody got here calling.
