SANTA CLARA, Calif. — In February, two days after the San Francisco 49ers fell wanting successful a Tremendous Bowl for the fourth time in 5 years, normal supervisor John Lynch was requested what it will take to lastly recover from the hump.
Lynch responded not with a particular place that wanted bolstering however with a extra summary idea: The 49ers wanted “finishers in each space of the crew.”
San Francisco wanted to search out the lacking piece who might make the one sort out or catch the one go that may swing the pendulum in its favor in opposition to groups, such because the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, on phases as huge because the Tremendous Bowl.
However 5 video games into the 2024 season, the Niners may not even have sufficient to beat supposedly inferior NFC West division foes within the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. That has been obvious in brutal losses to every of these groups, each video games during which the 49ers held double-digit fourth-quarter leads.
From 2017 to 2023, the 49ers have been 51-2 within the common season underneath coach Kyle Shanahan when main by double digits within the fourth quarter, although they misplaced Tremendous Bowl LIV in such a situation and held a 10-point lead within the second quarter of Tremendous Bowl LVIII.
Whereas there’s loads of time for these 49ers to determine methods to put opponents away, Thursday night time’s assembly with the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video) comes with vital implications for a Week 6 contest. A loss would ostensibly drop the Niners to a few video games (together with the tiebreaker) again of the Seahawks whereas rendering them 0-3 within the division and 0-4 within the convention. A win would put them proper again into first place within the NFC West.
If the 49ers are going to search out the ending flourish they’ve lacked up to now, there are a number of areas that should enhance — beginning with getting wholesome, fixing pink zone points, successful the turnover battle and enhancing internally on protection and particular groups. None determine to be fast or straightforward fixes however with out them, the Tremendous Bowl window for this core might shut before anybody in 49ers HQ anticipated.
The 2023 Niners have been a juggernaut within the common season, racing out to huge leads and coasting to victories. For the numerous holdovers nonetheless on this 12 months’s roster, the squandered alternatives have been a reminder that yearly is completely different and it is a skinny line between 4-1 and 2-3.
“When you have got a lead on folks, it’s essential to end them,” Shanahan mentioned. “The best way you end folks is you proceed to attain and in case you aren’t doing that, you’ll be able to’t flip it over and you have to cease folks on the finish.”
Accidents
For the primary six years of the Shanahan/Lynch period, the 49ers persistently handled accidents each in amount of illnesses and high quality of gamers affected by them. That normalized a bit in 2023 when San Francisco had 34.5 adjusted video games misplaced (which estimates the impression of accidents on groups), the fourth fewest within the NFL.
It was the primary time in a decade that the 49ers ranked higher than twentieth and roughly one-fifth of the excessive water mark of 161.6 adjusted video games misplaced within the 2020 season, which did not embody video games misplaced to COVID-19 protocols.
This season, no matter damage progress San Francisco made in 2023 has dissipated. Whether or not due to the cumulative toll of so many deep postseason runs or just unhealthy luck, the Niners have handled a devastating rash of well being points.
Operating again Christian McCaffrey (Achilles tendonitis), linebacker Dre Greenlaw (torn left Achilles) and defensive sort out Javon Hargrave (torn proper triceps) are on the injured reserve listing. Hargrave is out for the season, whereas San Francisco hopes Greenlaw and McCaffrey can return someday round midseason.
The 49ers’ roster has 11 gamers who’ve made no less than one Professional Bowl of their profession. Of these 11, 5 (McCaffrey, Hargrave, tight finish George Kittle, receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. and security Talanoa Hufanga) have missed no less than one recreation due to damage, and 4 others (cornerback Charvarius Ward, linebacker Fred Warner, left sort out Trent Williams and defensive finish Nick Bosa) have handled short-term accidents which have made it troublesome for them to get by video games.
Receiver Ricky Pearsall, the crew’s first-round draft decide, stays on the non-football damage listing after he was shot within the chest in an tried theft per week earlier than the season started.
“Each time you have got accidents, everybody is aware of it makes it harder,” Shanahan mentioned. “However folks have accidents all through the league and you have to have the ability to overcome these.”
The excellent news is that a few of these replacements — resembling receiver Jauan Jennings and operating again Jordan Mason — have taken benefit of elevated alternatives.
Nonetheless, all of these accidents put added stress on the 49ers’ depth, an space that has been weakened by the variety of stars on high-priced contracts on the roster and the draft picks which have been dealt away in recent times.
Purple zone points
To complete video games, the 49ers should begin by ending drives with touchdowns somewhat than subject objectives. By no means was that extra evident than in opposition to the Cardinals in Week 5, when the 49ers have been 1-of-6 within the pink zone after going a mixed 9-of-9 in opposition to Arizona final season. These misses could not be pinned on one factor, both, as Mason fumbled inside the ten on one late drive and penalties pushed the Niners out of subject objective vary on one other. With factors on both drive, San Francisco doubtless would have received that recreation.
In 2023, the 49ers led the NFL in pink zone landing effectivity (67.2%) and have been even higher in goal-to-go situations (82.9%).
Regardless of their offense shifting the ball persistently, this 12 months’s unit has stalled out contained in the opponent’s 20 at an alarming charge. San Francisco has pushed into the pink zone 22 occasions (second most within the NFL) however has transformed simply 40.9% of these into touchdowns (twenty ninth within the NFL) and managed to attain on solely half of their drives that received them into goal-to-go alternatives, which ranks thirty first within the league.
What provides? The simplest rationalization is the 49ers do not have McCaffrey, whose capacity as a route runner and go catcher usually noticed him successful one-on-ones in opposition to defenders for simple catches from quarterback Brock Purdy. He led the league in touches (75), scrimmage yards (254) and touchdowns (18) within the pink zone a season in the past.
Whereas Mason has run effectively in McCaffrey’s stead, he would not draw the identical consideration as a go catcher.
“You are able to do a lot with Christian out of the backfield,” Purdy mentioned. “Line him up as a receiver and defenses must have a plan for that. It’s a little completely different, however regardless we’ve got the gamers to nonetheless make it occur.”
Certainly, McCaffrey’s absence is not the lone purpose for the pink zone points. The 49ers have additionally struggled with penalties, operating the ball successfully and unfavorable performs. In 5 video games, they’ve run 28 performs which have gained zero or unfavorable yards within the pink zone, probably the most within the NFL and quickly approaching the 43 they’d all of final season.
The shortcoming to run the ball successfully has left Purdy to shoulder a portion of the blame for the pink zone failures. San Francisco is throwing the ball extra within the pink zone than final season, rising from 45% (43.9) designed passes in 2023 to 50.7% (49.3) up to now this season.
Sans McCaffrey, although, the already small areas have grown even tighter, which has led to Purdy lacking reads and holding the ball extra. His common time to throw within the pink zone is a whopping 3.43 seconds, up from 2.97 final 12 months.
“It begins with me,” Purdy mentioned. “I’ve simply received to be higher and extra aggressive down there. After which simply collectively as a unit, offensive unit, as soon as we get down there, our mindset needs to be we have got to punch this in.”
Turnovers
The night time earlier than the 49ers’ loss to Arizona, Shanahan performed the hits, emphasizing the significance of the turnover battle.
You would be hard-pressed to discover a crew that exemplifies that greater than Shanahan’s Niners. From 2019 to 2023, the 49ers have been 33-3 after they have been plus-1 or higher in turnover margin, together with an ideal 21-0 after they have been plus-2 or higher. They have been 16-4 when the turnover margin was even and 5-22 after they misplaced it.
The only rationalization for blown leads in opposition to the Rams and Cardinals? Have a look at the turnover column. The 49ers have been minus-1 in opposition to Los Angeles and minus-2 in opposition to Arizona.
Of extra concern, San Francisco has eight giveaways in 5 video games, tied for the second most within the NFL after having the fourth fewest within the league final 12 months.
“This group since Kyle’s taken over, it is discovered methods to win,” Bosa mentioned. “And it isn’t about how good your gamers are, how explosive an offense is or good a protection is. It is in case you’re turning the ball over and you are not making these performs on protection within the essential moments you are going to lose within the NFL.”
Protection and particular groups
When Shanahan stayed in home to rent Nick Sorensen as his third defensive coordinator in as a few years within the offseason, he and Lynch made it clear he needed to get again to the fundamentals of the defenses he had underneath Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans.
On the NFL mix in February, Lynch mentioned: “We all know who we’re, who we’ll be, and that is not going to make a wholesale schematic change there.”
The focus of that defensive philosophy has been a dominant line that by no means lacks for sources and is meant to be the engine that drives the 49ers. Regardless of repeated efforts to copy the unit that keyed the crew’s 2019 turnaround, these Niners have not been capable of take over video games with the entrance 4, save for a robust outing in opposition to an abysmal Patriots offensive line.
A lot of it begins with the continuation of an issue that reared its head late final season: run protection. The 49ers are giving up 4.7 yards per carry (twenty first in NFL) and have successful charge of 55% on run performs (twenty fifth).
These points have contributed to poor efficiency on third down, however even when they’re getting opponents into third-and-long conditions, they have not been capable of rush the passer successfully. San Francisco is giving up a 43.3% conversion charge on third-and-7 or longer, thirty first within the NFL, and has 28 pressures in these conditions, which ranks twenty sixth.
With Hargrave out for the season and different defensive linemen coping with accidents, the Niners have expertise with Bosa, Maliek Collins and Leonard Floyd. However save for Bosa, it isn’t the kind of group that strikes concern into opposing coordinators.
Within the losses to the Rams and Cardinals, the 49ers had a number of alternatives to place the video games away defensively. Every time, they got here up quick. Greenlaw’s eventual return ought to inject some much-needed pace and perspective into the linebacker group, however it’s honest to surprise if they’ve the expertise to be a prime protection or if the offense is just going to have to hold extra of the freight because the protection did in previous years.
“You have to consider, what are we doing?” Sorensen mentioned. “What can we be higher at? Quite a lot of occasions you’ll be able to pinpoint that. You do not need to simply go off the reservation as a result of who you might be, what you need this protection to be.”
In the meantime, particular groups continues to be problematic. They’ve a minus-0.40 win chance added on particular groups (twenty seventh within the NFL) and rank thirty first in particular groups DVOA (minus-7.9%). In opposition to the Rams, they gave up a primary down on a pretend punt and a 38-yard punt return to arrange the successful subject objective.
There was a glimmer of hope in opposition to the Cardinals with a blocked subject objective return for a landing, however that was rapidly tempered by Arizona’s 39-yard kick return that compelled kicker Jake Moody to attempt to make the sort out, as he suffered a excessive proper ankle sprain. Shanahan mentioned he nonetheless has “lots” of confidence in particular groups coordinator Brian Schneider, however the 49ers are clearly not adequate to beat particular groups errors like they’ve prior to now.
“I’d at all times like to make performs on particular groups,” Shanahan mentioned. “However the greatest factor is to not be one of many causes that you just lose.”
