Making powerful lineup selections every week may be essentially the most difficult a part of the fantasy soccer course of.
My weekly matchup rankings present a schedule-independent methodology to guage positional matchups, itemizing all 32 opposing defenses so as of most to least favorable for opposing gamers in any respect 4 talent positions (quarterback, operating again, vast receiver and tight finish). As an alternative of counting on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed knowledge to point out how every protection fared relative to the issue of the schedule it has confronted. This offers a fairer method to judging the standard of particular person matchups.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy factors allowed, displays how far above or beneath gamers’ weekly PPR fantasy level averages that protection held opponents at that place. A constructive quantity means the matchup is favorable; a unfavourable quantity means it’s unfavorable. Moreover, bear in mind groups usually use a number of operating backs and vast receivers in a sport, and these plus/minus averages cowl all of a staff’s personnel at that place.
Lastly, a caveat: Matchups are solely one ingredient in my rankings system. Not each favorable matchup needs to be exploited, nor each unfavorable matchup prevented. In order for you my — and the ESPN fantasy employees’s — most full supply for whom to start out and sit every week, seek the advice of our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy factors are for PPR scoring until in any other case famous.
Quarterbacks
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What sort of fantasy worth does Matthew Stafford have going ahead?
Stephania Bell, Subject Yates and Daniel Dopp react to Matthew Stafford’s huge fantasy sport vs. the Patriots.
Matchups spotlight: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (versus Baltimore Ravens). He has been each the quintessential hot-hand and matchups dynamo of late, averaging 21.9 fantasy factors in the course of the previous 4 weeks with the latest sport, which got here in opposition to the Thirtieth-ranked Cincinnati Bengals, his high-water mark for the season (24.38). Herbert, who tried 36 passes in that sport and has exceeded 30 in 4 of his previous six, will once more be tasked with airing it out on Monday Night time Soccer in opposition to the Ravens, who’ve an ideal-for-fantasy mixture of a horrible move protection and a loaded offense which will increase pass-heavy sport play. Positive, Russell Wilson struggled in opposition to them final week, however the Ravens have nonetheless surrendered a 23-point sport or higher to 3 of the previous 5 quarterbacks they’ve confronted.
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Matchup to keep away from: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (versus Philadelphia Eagles). He has been way more productive for the reason that wholesome returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, averaging 20.1 fantasy factors in the course of the previous 4 weeks, however has nonetheless exhibited a troubling sample of poor efficiency in opposition to harder defenses this season. In two video games with Kupp and Nacua that got here in opposition to bottom-eight quarterback matchups — utilizing seasonal Adjusted Fantasy Factors Added knowledge somewhat than previous 5 weeks — Stafford averaged 12.2 factors, and in two by which each have been absent, he averaged 8.9. The Eagles have loved one of the vital turnarounds defending quarterbacks of any staff this season, permitting just one to exceed 20 factors in a sport and one to attain 15-plus in six video games for the reason that bye.
Working backs
Matchups spotlight: Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Tommy DeVito’s set up as Giants beginning quarterback would be the storyline of this sport, at the least on their aspect of issues, however Tracy would possibly properly be essentially the most intriguing fantasy play contemplating the matchups. Tracy has clearly taken maintain of the backfield, taking part in 69% of the offensive snaps and averaging 15.0 carries to Devin Singletary’s 28% and 5.5 the previous 4 weeks, however way more importantly to this sport, Tracy has averaged 18.3 routes to Singletary’s 6.5. Along with the Buccaneers score the second-best matchup for operating backs in the course of the previous 5 weeks, they’ve allowed a second-most 2.55 PPR fantasy factors per goal to the place in that point. Contemplating the unfold (5 ½ factors getting into the week, anticipate Tracy to play a extra significant function within the passing sport along with his standard dashing exploits.
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Matchup to keep away from: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina (versus Chiefs). The week has arrived for rookie Jonathon Brooks to make his NFL debut, and whereas he’ll initially slide into the backup function rather than Miles Sanders (ankle, week-to-week), it is unsure to what extent he’ll minimize into Hubbard’s workload. Compounding issues is that this matchup, the hardest for operating backs all season. Just one operating again has scored as many as 14 PPR fantasy factors in a sport in opposition to the Chiefs, James Prepare dinner (19.7) this previous week, and that was largely fueled by his receiving a pair of goal-to-go carries (each of which he transformed). Amongst these held beneath 14, by the best way, are three of the 4 best-scoring operating backs for the season.
Huge receivers
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Subject Yates: CeeDee Lamb is the one Cowboy price beginning in fantasy
Subject Yates blasts the Cowboys’ offense, saying CeeDee Lamb is the one fantasy participant price beginning, as a consequence of quantity.
Matchups spotlight: Quentin Johnston, Chargers (versus Ravens). He has capitalized upon above-average-to-excellent matchups every of the previous three weeks, to the tune of a 15.1 PPR fantasy level common, and here is among the best ones he’ll face but. The Ravens have seen 5 totally different vast receivers rating 16-plus factors and one other two rating 12-plus the previous 5 weeks, together with a median of 31.9 to opponents’ high perimeter receivers (as Johnston is). As alluded to with Herbert above, the Chargers will presumably be throwing incessantly on this sport, and Johnston has a wholesome 19.5% goal share the previous three weeks. There is a good likelihood he’ll see 7-9 targets, and this protection has surrendered 1.83 factors per goal to the place this 12 months.
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Matchup to keep away from: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (at Commanders). Dak Prescott’s season-ending hamstring harm hasn’t induced Lamb’s fantasy manufacturing to crater, however it has undoubtedly had an antagonistic affect. After averaging 17.6 PPR fantasy factors per sport and 1.66 per goal in his first eight video games, Lamb has averaged 12.7 and 1.21 in these classes in Cooper Rush’s two begins. Worse but, requires Trey Lance to get an opportunity at quarterback solely heighten considerations about Lamb’s fantasy inventory. This matchup would not assist issues, as just one vast receiver has exceeded 15 factors in opposition to the Commanders prior to now 5 weeks (George Pickens, 20.5 in Week 10).
Tight ends
Matchups spotlight: Hunter Henry, Patriots (at Dolphins). His targets have been on the rise of late, as prior to now 5 weeks, he has a 21.8% goal share, up from 18.3% within the season’s first 5 video games. That is the form of workload fantasy managers need to see from a decent finish, particularly with as favorable a matchup as this upcoming. The Dolphins have afforded the place 20.5 factors per sport the previous 4 weeks alone, fifth-most within the league, and whereas a variety of that got here from a pair of top-shelf tight ends (Brock Bowers, Trey McBride), additionally they surrendered a mixed 14.4 factors to Dalton Kincaid and Quintin Morris in Week 9 and eight.4 factors to Davis Allen in Week 10.
Matchup to keep away from: Mark Andrews, Ravens (at Chargers). Although he has restored his fantasy TE1 standing over the previous six weeks, throughout which era his 13.0 PPR fantasy factors per sport common ranks eighth-best on the place, this is not one in every of his higher matchups. After he scored solely 4.2 factors in opposition to the seventh-ranked Steelers in Week 11, he is now going through the top-ranked Chargers, a protection that has seen just one tight finish exceed 12 factors all season (Travis Kelce, Week 4). For the season, the Chargers’ 1.31 factors per goal common afforded the place is the league’s fewest.
