Manchester Metropolis’s season is swiftly getting away from them.
Pep Guardiola’s group had been on the right track to get again on monitor once they led Feyenoord 3-0 within the Champions League on Tuesday. But it completed 3-3 and the Premier League champions’ winless run prolonged to 6 matches throughout all competitions.
Metropolis turned the primary group in Champions League historical past to guide a match by three objectives as late because the seventy fifth minute and fail to go on to win.
They did not win a match during which they led by three objectives for the primary time in all competitions since Might 1989 in opposition to Bournemouth within the second tier (3-3), whereas for the primary time in his managerial profession, Guardiola noticed a group of his fail to win a match during which they had been main by three objectives.
Metropolis have additionally misplaced their final three Premier League video games, as many as that they had of their earlier 47 mixed (W35 D9). They final misplaced 4 consecutive league video games between April-August 2008.
Based on the Opta supercomputer, they now have only a 12.6% probability of retaining the title.
So, a visit to Anfield to face Arne Slot’s rampant Liverpool – who’re eight factors clear on the high of the Premier League and beat Actual Madrid 2-0 within the Champions League on Wednesday – is hardly the match Guardiola would have wished as he seems to get Metropolis again on the right track.
Right here, we preview an enormous conflict.
What’s anticipated?
Maybe not since Liverpool’s title-winning marketing campaign in 2019-20 has there been such a gulf in type between these two rivals. A win for Liverpool might see them go 11 factors clear – in Premier League historical past, solely three groups have overcome a deficit of greater than 11 factors to go on and win the title (Manchester United in 1992-93 and 1995-96, and Arsenal in 1997-98).
Because it stands, Liverpool have a 74.8% probability of profitable the title.
The onus actually is on Metropolis, then, to snap their dismal run of type, however Opta’s supercomputer makes Liverpool the favourites, with a forty five.3% win probability. Metropolis got here out on high in 29.9% of the data-led simulations, whereas there’s a 24.8% probability of a draw.
The Residents have gained simply one in every of their final 21 Premier League away video games in opposition to Liverpool (D7 L13), beating them 4-1 in February 2021. They haven’t gained at Anfield with followers in attendance since Might 2003 (2-1).
Liverpool have gained simply one in every of their final 9 Premier League video games in opposition to Metropolis (D5 L3), a 1-0 dwelling victory in October 2022.
The away aspect has gained simply six of the 54 Premier League conferences between Liverpool and Metropolis, the bottom proportion of any fixture to be performed greater than 30 instances within the competitors (11%).
Slot’s machine retains paying out
Possibly solely in his wildest goals would Slot have hoped for such a robust begin to his Liverpool tenure, particularly given the scale of the sneakers he needed to fill at Anfield.
5 – Liverpool are simply the fifth aspect to win their opening 5 video games of UEFA Champions League marketing campaign and concede no a couple of purpose within the course of, after Milan (92-93), Juventus (04-05), Atlético Madrid (16-17) and PSG (17-18). Contact. pic.twitter.com/x6BhZDOUGx
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 27, 2024
The Guardiola-Jurgen Klopp rivalry lit up English soccer for the final eight years, however Slot has swiftly made this Liverpool group his personal.
This will probably be Slot’s first assembly with each Manchester Metropolis and their supervisor Guardiola. None of Liverpool’s final six managers have misplaced their first league assembly with England’s reigning champions (W4 D2), since Roy Evans’ 1-0 loss to Manchester United in 1993-94.
Liverpool’s solely Premier League defeat thus far this season was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest at Anfield. They’ve gained seven of their eight league video games since (D1), scoring at the very least twice in seven of these video games.
No supervisor in Premier League historical past has reached 10 wins in fewer matches from the beginning of their profession within the competitors than Slot (12 video games, degree with Guus Hiddink and Carlo Ancelotti).
In distinction to the rampant attacking of the Klopp period, Liverpool’s foundations have been constructed on a robust defence. They’ve stored extra clear sheets (six) than some other group within the high flight this time period, and conceded simply eight objectives (at the very least 4 fewer than some other aspect and 9 fewer than Manchester Metropolis). Their 10.75 anticipated objectives in opposition to (xGA) can also be the bottom complete within the competitors.
Not that the Reds’ assault hasn’t been on level. Tottenham (27) are the one group to attain extra objectives than Liverpool (24) within the Premier League in 2024-25, whereas Slot’s aspect have the third-highest xG (23.6) and have had the very best variety of huge possibilities (outlined by Opta as a chance from which a participant would fairly be anticipated to attain), with 48.
The massive query is how Slot’s possession-based system will match up in opposition to Metropolis’s. However it’s all clicking for the Dutchman thus far.
The boys with the blues
Metropolis haven’t misplaced 4 Premier League video games in a row inside a single season since 2007 once they suffered 5 consecutive losses to Blackburn Rovers, Studying, Portsmouth, Wigan Athletic and Chelsea between January and March.
However a defeat at Anfield would see them match that undesirable slice of historical past.
5 – Manchester Metropolis haven’t misplaced 4 Premier League video games in a row inside a single season since 2007 once they suffered 5 consecutive losses to Blackburn, Studying, Portsmouth, Wigan and Chelsea between January and March. Headscratching. pic.twitter.com/ktcijn1eLA
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 28, 2024
In his managerial profession, Guardiola has solely misplaced extra video games in opposition to Tottenham (9) than he has in opposition to Liverpool (eight).
He has gained simply six of his 22 conferences with the Reds (27%), his lowest win price in opposition to any aspect he has confronted greater than 5 instances in all competitions.
Metropolis have gained 5 of their final six Premier League video games in opposition to sides beginning the day high of the desk (D1). Nevertheless, their final such defeat was a 3-1 loss in opposition to Liverpool at Anfield in November 2019, with the Reds occurring to win the title that season.
Defensively, Metropolis have been all over. Their 15.9 xGA means they’re averaging 1.3 xGA per recreation, whereas final season within the Premier League, they completed with 35.9 xGA (a median of 0.9 per match).
Erling Haaland, for all his expertise, has squandered some huge possibilities, albeit he’s nonetheless performing barely above his xG (12 objectives from 11.9 xG). Metropolis are underperforming their xG as a group by 2.4 (22 objectives from 24.4 xG).
Issues in each packing containers, then, for Guardiola to resolve.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah netted twice to assist Liverpool to a 3-2 comeback win over Southampton final week and has made headlines this week when he claimed after that victory at St Mary’s that he was but to be supplied any type of contract by the membership – his present deal expires on the finish of the season.
If that is to be Salah’s final marketing campaign at Liverpool, he’s doing his perfect to exit on a excessive word. In addition to having essentially the most objectives and assists mixed within the Premier League this season (16), Salah’s purpose involvements have additionally been value a league-high 17 factors to Liverpool this time period.
Salah has scored seven instances within the league in opposition to Manchester Metropolis for Liverpool, whereas he wants simply two extra top-flight objectives at Anfield to convey up his one centesimal for the Reds at their dwelling floor.
Manchester Metropolis – Ilkay Gundogan
Three of Gundogan’s 4 Premier League objectives in opposition to Liverpool have come at Anfield, with no Metropolis participant scoring extra away in opposition to the Reds within the competitors’s historical past (Nicolas Anelka additionally three).
His subsequent look will probably be his two hundredth within the Premier League, whereas if Manchester Metropolis win right here, he can be the third participant to win as many as 150 of his first 200 appearances within the competitors (at the moment 149 – Bernardo Silva gained 153 and Ederson 151 of first 200).
Gundogan can be solely the third German participant to hit the landmark of 200 Premier League video games after Robert Huth (322), Dietmar Hamann (268) and Pascal Gross (228).
