Pep Guardiola solely signed a brand new contract to maintain him at Manchester Metropolis for an additional two years again in November.
But a month on from Guardiola placing pen to paper, issues on the pitch have gotten worse for Metropolis.
Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa means Metropolis have now misplaced 9 occasions within the house of 12 matches throughout all competitions.
Whereas there has not been a lot speak of Guardiola being beneath any critical strain on the subject of dismissal, he does want one thing of a minor miracle after Christmas if Metropolis are to salvage something from the season.
They face a crunch conflict within the Champions League towards Paris Saint-Germain in January, whereas they’re method off the tempo within the Premier League title race.
Right here, we delve into the Opta numbers behind Metropolis’s horrible run.
Simply how unhealthy is it?
Metropolis have misplaced 9 of their final 12 video games in all competitions (W1 D2). When evaluating that to when the opposite “huge six” golf equipment final had such a run of defeats within the house of 12 video games, we are able to see it was 2023 for Chelsea, 1997 for Tottenham, 1977 for Arsenal, 1961 for Manchester United and 1954 for Liverpool.
To place Metropolis’s drop-off into additional context, their earlier 9 defeats in all competitions had come throughout a run of 112 video games.
The reigning champions have already misplaced 9 video games in all competitions this time period. Solely in 2019-20 (12) and 2016-17 (10) have Metropolis misplaced extra matches in a season beneath Guardiola. In reality, these campaigns are the one seasons Guardiola has misplaced extra matches as a supervisor than he has in 2024-25.
Metropolis are winless in 5 consecutive Premier League away video games (D1 L4) for the primary time beneath Guardiola, final failing to win extra consecutive such matches in December 2015 (six) beneath Manuel Pellegrini. They are going to be glad they’re again on house turf when Everton go to the Etihad Stadium on Boxing Day.
Earlier than his seven-game winless run earlier this season (previous to Metropolis’s victory over Nottingham Forest in early December), Guardiola’s earlier longest winless run was six (set within the 2016-17 season, his first at Metropolis).
9 – Manchester Metropolis have misplaced 9 of their final 12 video games in all competitions (W1 D2). The final time different chosen golf equipment had a run of 9 defeats in 12 video games:
Chelsea – 25/05/2023
Tottenham – 26/12/1997
Arsenal – 23/03/1977
Man Utd – 16/12/1961
Liverpool – 23/01/1954Unprecedented. pic.twitter.com/6Ls5Zw6poF
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 21, 2024
Earlier on in Metropolis’s poor run, Guardiola misplaced 4 video games in a row in all competitions for the primary time in his managerial profession.
So sure, it has been unhealthy.
Over the hill?
A lot has been product of Kyle Walker’s drop in kind this season, and the 34-year-old was dropped to the bench at Villa Park, although he did come on as Metropolis appeared to show the tide of their favour.
However Walker is only one of a number of key gamers that appear to be now nicely past their peak.
Kevin De Bruyne, 33, has struggled with accidents. Bernardo Silva has performed the second-most minutes of any outfielder in Man Metropolis’s squad because the begin of the 2022-23 Premier League season, however he’s now 30. John Stones, who turned 30 in Might, has failed to remain match persistently. Jack Grealish, Nathan Ake, Manuel Akanji are all 29.
Metropolis have began 11 gamers aged 29 or over this season, which is a minimum of two greater than another staff within the Premier League (West Ham, 9).
What’s occurring with Haaland?
Erling Haaland has been a goalscoring machine ever since his arrival at Metropolis, although there has additionally all the time been the underlying suggestion that maybe Guardiola’s tactical strategy doesn’t get the perfect out of the Norway star.
Haaland began the marketing campaign brilliantly. Previous to October 27, Haaland had performed 13 occasions in all competitions, scoring 14 targets, averaging a aim each 81 minutes.
He was registering 4.8 photographs per 90, and a couple of.8 photographs on course per 90, with a 23.3% shot conversion price, whereas having 7.6 touches within the opponent’s space.
But because the begin of Metropolis’s depressing run, Haaland has scored simply 4 targets in 11 appearances. His minutes per aim ratio has dropped to 248, whereas his anticipated targets per 90 has sunk from 1.0 to 0.7.
He’s solely managing 3.7 photographs per 90 and 1.7 on course, whereas his shot conversion price has dropped markedly to 9.8%. Haaland has averaged simply six touches within the opposition field per 90 on this run.
Haaland is chopping an more and more remoted determine, and on the events Metropolis are supplying him with the ammunition, he actually isn’t firing on all cylinders.
The crux of the problem…
It’s in all probability not smart to pin Metropolis’s issues on one factor, however additionally it is truthful to say that Rodri’s absence has derailed their marketing campaign.
The Ballon d’Or winner has been the lynchpin of Metropolis’s dominance over current seasons, not solely anchoring the midfield, but in addition arising with essential targets in large moments.
Because the begin of final season, Metropolis have performed 19 Premier League matches with out Rodri. They’ve misplaced 9 of these.
In that very same time, Rodri has featured in 36 top-flight video games, with Metropolis not dropping a single a kind of fixtures, so the statistics present simply how pivotal he’s.
It’s not simply Rodri, although. Ruben Dias has additionally suffered with damage this time period.
Metropolis have misplaced all 4 league video games that Dias has missed this season, whereas they’ve misplaced simply two of the 13 matches during which he has featured, profitable eight of them (61.5%).
With the Portugal worldwide within the staff, their common targets towards per recreation is 1.2. With out Dias, Metropolis have conceded 2.5 targets per recreation on common.
Now what?
Metropolis’s title chances are high all however over. They’re 12 factors adrift of league leaders Liverpool, and down in seventh heading into Christmas. The Opta supercomputer fingers them only a 0.6% likelihood of retaining their crown.
They’re nonetheless anticipated to complete within the prime 4, with a 76.9% likelihood total.
Metropolis did go into final Christmas in fifth place, and nonetheless recovered to win the title. Certainly, solely twice beneath Guardiola (2017-18 and 2020-21) have they really been prime on Christmas Day, however a comeback this season appears out of attain.
Their Champions League hopes additionally dangle within the stability forward of a crunch conflict with Paris Saint-Germain. Metropolis sit twenty second in that 36-team league, with the groups positioned between ninth and twenty fourth qualifying for the play-off spherical for the knockout stage.
Salford are their opponents within the FA Cup, so it isn’t as if Metropolis’s hopes are completely over, and there may be the January switch window for them to bolster their squad.
That being mentioned, there may be additionally the lingering uncertainty over the 100+ fees dealt their method by the Premier League. Metropolis’s case has now been heard, and a call is anticipated within the new 12 months.
Before everything for Guardiola, although, he simply must get again to stage floor. Fixtures towards Everton, Leicester Metropolis and West Ham current a strong alternative to do exactly that.
