Close to the top of Justin Fields’ triumphant win over the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears followers serenaded him with a passionate “We wish Justin” chant. The refrain reached a fever pitch on an evening when Fields threw for north of 260 yards and one landing in a blowout win over the Atlanta Falcons. All through Sunday’s win, he made game-changing, spotlight performs like this, which had Chicago salivating.
Based mostly on the vibes, the consensus over whether or not Fields’ potential return because the Chicago Bears quarterback in 2024 has shifted over the previous month from ‘hell no’ to a toss-up. ESPN insider Jeremy Fowler dared to report that “Fields has completely made Chicago’s choice within the draft troublesome by his playmaking and the way he has accomplished this yr.”
A month in the past, shifting on from Fields was a no brainer. Nonetheless, since December started, Fields has gained 4 of 5 video games, his finest stretch because the Bears quarterback as much as that time and satisfied sufficient folks to eschew frequent sense and contemplate buying and selling the primary total decide. Primarily, they’d be constructing a palatial roster round a pauper quarterback. It could be probably the most painful mistake contained in the top-five for the reason that Washington Commanders thought an edge rusher would propel them into respectability as a substitute of Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa.
Throughout this five-game spell, Fields has generated seven touchdowns, together with three on the bottom and thrown solely a triplet of interceptions. Two of these got here in a loss towards the Cleveland Browns’ stifling protection. However Bears followers ought to need higher for themselves. I do know most of them haven’t seen high quality quarterback manufacturing in a Bears uniform for the reason that Eighties, however this dead-cat bounce is a continuation of the Justin Fields romanticism that’s distorted how poor his decision-making has been. Chicago doesn’t must accept a quarterback whose nadir is Zach Wilson and whose ceiling after three seasons is Jalen Hurts on a nasty day. If all issues are equal, take the quarterback phenom.
The chance-benefit evaluation leans closely in direction of conserving the No. 1 total decide. This isn’t even about Caleb Williams, though you can make a case for a Mahomesian prospect who’s infinitely extra proficient than Fields. Williams isn’t a positive factor. No prospect is, nonetheless, recency bias has run amok in Chi-City.
Here’s what we learn about Fields: Even after this month of comparatively mistake-free soccer, Fields’ fourth-quarter completion proportion ranked final within the NFL, he completed twenty fifth in yards per try, twenty ninth in fourth-quarter interceptions and thirtieth in QBR this season.
The truth is {that a} coordinator or scheme change gained’t flip Fields into Josh Allen or Cam Newton. Up to now, Fields’ performances have been extra akin to a poor man’s Kyler Murray. He’s someway each turnover inclined and reluctant to throw. Based on ESPN’s Stats & Information division, Fields is final amongst certified quarterbacks in common time per go (3.23 seconds) in 2023 and since his rookie season.
The chance-benefit evaluation leans closely in direction of conserving the primary. The meager wage allotted to No. 1 picks would enable the Bears to shovel hundreds of thousands to free brokers that may in any other case be reserved for a quarterback. I get it. NFL followers are obsessive about bodily items and the No.1 decide is an unknown, however what we learn about Fields is that he lives on all-time low and infrequently comes up for air. Every so often, he’ll wow you with performs like this, however then he’ll stare down a receiver and hit a MLB proper within the chest. Too typically, he’s a game-changer quarterback for Bears’ opponents. It could be one factor if there was one thing tangible to construct off of.
Chicago simply went via this cycle for a decade with Jay Cutler. They waited for him to show the nook into elite standing, solely to look at him do a poor Matt Stafford imitation. Most groups don’t get a possibility to CTRL+ALT+DEL an underwhelming eleventh total decide. They positioned a wager on the Panthers faltering this season and hit the jackpot in a quarterback wealthy draft.
Now isn’t the time to get cute. Fields is barely as a consequence of obtain roughly $4 million subsequent season, however committing to him over the No.1 decide would basically imply selecting up their $23 million fifth-year possibility for 2025 by Might 2024. Not solely would Williams enable them to keep away from committing two extra years to Fields, however it might reset the franchises’ clock on doling out a crippling franchise quarterback wage to a so-so quarterback. A staff with out the No. 1 decide can be okay with him growing right into a center of the pack starter, however the Bears have an exit ramp.
Totally different quarterbacks progress at their very own tempo, however there aren’t many historic precedents for a quarterback throwing as poorly as Fields has, after which instantly adjusting his trajectory in yr 4 or 5. By yr three, Hurts was matching Patrick Mahomes pass-for-pass in a Tremendous Bowl. Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Geno Smith and Steve Younger are the uncommon exceptions of quarterbacks whose breakthroughs got here throughout or after their fourth season.
Younger and Brees bounced again from wobbly begins with low cost, dysfunctional organizations and their tales will each find yourself within the Corridor of Fame. Nonetheless, these glow-ups took years to come back to come back to fruition. Twenty years later, the Niners additionally bought caught with Alex Smith till he started resembling an above-average starter in yr seven. Smith’s redemption story started in his ninth season, on his fourth staff.
A yr in the past, Fields opened eyes by recording the third 1,000-yard speeding season in league historical past from a QB, however the passing assault was grounded by a variety of elements together with Fields. For 3 years, Fields has been mediocre, however satiated Windy Metropolis on the few events the place he meets their low expectations. Williams (or Drake Maye) might stumble out of the gates, however it’s cheaper to look at a rookie study on the fly than a quarterback who ought to know higher by now.
Fields has yet one more alternative to finish his season on a excessive notice towards the Inexperienced Bay Packers. It could be probably the most scrutinized Bears sport of the Fields period. In 5 profession matchups towards the Packers, Fields has thrown almost twice as many picks as touchdowns and misplaced all 5 contests. Except the Bears are gluttons for punishment, they’ll ship Fields onto the following stage of his NFL journey. Optimistically, Fields will ultimately hone his elite instruments, however the hourglass is working out in Chicago.
Comply with DJ Dunson on X: @cerebralsportex
