Choosing chalk within the NCAA Match is, paradoxically, a daring prediction.
Simply as soon as within the match’s trendy period has the Ultimate 4 featured all 4 No. 1 seeds — in 2008. This 12 months’s crop simply occurs to be the highest-rated quartet because the daybreak of KenPom.com. Duke, Florida, Houston and Auburn all price increased than plus-35, one thing by no means earlier than seen because the metrics web site started monitoring information in 1997.
Once I ran this train again in late January, I settled on Duke, Houston, Auburn and Michigan State as a great Ultimate 4 wager. However now now we have areas and brackets laid out earlier than us. Tempting as it’s to interchange the Spartans with Florida and name it a day, let’s cause these out one area at a time.
South Area
Auburn misplaced three of its final 4, convincing some of us to avoid the Tigers. These losses got here in opposition to among the greatest groups the SEC has to supply, so let’s not overreact. And after getting previous a woefully underseeded No. 8 Louisville, the Tigers would get pleasure from an opportunity to sink their tooth right into a revenge sport in opposition to No. 4 Texas A&M, which beat them two weeks in the past.
However the No. 2 seed right here is Michigan State, which has a reasonably straightforward street to the Elite Eight (since No. 3 Iowa State will likely be down a key starter in Keshon Gilbert). That is Tom Izzo’s greatest workforce since earlier than the pandemic, and the Spartans are higher than Auburn in two key areas: rebounding and attending to the road. I’ve this unshakable feeling we’re getting one final Izzo run to the Ultimate 4.
Choose: No. 2 Michigan State
East Area
Feb 5, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer talks with guard Cooper Flagg (2) in opposition to the Syracuse Orange through the first half on the JMA Wi-fi Dome. Obligatory Credit score: Wealthy Barnes-Imagn Pictures I mentioned this Monday: Duke has the simplest path of the No. 1 seeds, a lot in order that it might make the Candy 16 with Cooper Flagg in avenue garments, resting his sprained ankle. As soon as Duke’s there, I’m not involved a few 12-loss Arizona within the No. 4 spot, although a really well-rounded Oregon might give the Blue Devils bother because the No. 5 seed.
In the meantime, your different greatest candidates are No. 2 Alabama, whose protection I don’t belief, and No. 3 Wisconsin. Duke-Alabama and Duke-Wisconsin might make for some actually enjoyable Elite Eight matchups, however neither of those groups is prepared for the model of grind-it-out protection the Blue Devils play.
Choose: No. 1 Duke
Midwest Area
PHOTO USA TODAY SPORTS IMAGES Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler (5) appears to be like for a path round Florida defenders through the second half of the Southeastern Convention match championship at Bridgestone Area in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, March 16, 2025. What a enjoyable area. No. 1 Houston and No. 2 Tennessee have been knocking on the door for years now. The No. 3 seed is Kentucky, in Mark Pope’s first season as coach, and Purdue, Clemson and Illinois have all had moments this season the place they’ve appeared elite.
Between their terrific defenses and the sluggish tempos they every prefer to play, a Houston-Tennessee Elite Eight matchup seems like first one to 50 wins. The Cougars are additionally the most effective 3-point taking pictures groups on the market — however the Vols have the No. 1 perimeter protection in Division I. In the event that they chase the Cougars off the arc, I like the scale of Felix Okpara and firm to cease a Houston workforce that’s beneath common on 2-pointers.
Choose: No. 2 Tennessee
West Area
Working in opposition to top-seeded Florida is that the West is probably the most troublesome area, house to 5 of the highest 15 KenPom groups. The Gators might face two-time defending champion UConn within the spherical of 32, a red-hot Maryland workforce within the Candy 16, and St. John’s, Texas Tech, Missouri and even Kansas within the Elite Eight. Even conceding the truth that UConn and Kansas aren’t critical title contenders, it is a meat grinder.
But I preserve coming again to the Gators’ profile and may’t discover a matchup that I don’t like for them. They’re a wildly environment friendly offense that may make 3-pointers whereas stopping the three on the different finish. They defend the ball and rank eighth in offensive rebounding proportion, so that they’ll management possession. That is my different No. 1 seed choice for San Antonio.
Choose: No. 1 Florida
