Grit. Moxie. Willpower.
Anybody who has ever survived highschool P.E. has seemingly learn no less than considered one of these phrases off of a laminated poster hung above a stack of dusty plyo containers. Likelihood is, as a sports activities fan, you’ve got additionally employed a set of the above adjectives to explain a coach, a group and/or a participant. In the event you did it whereas referencing the 2023 Texans, you were not alone… or incorrect.
The Houston Texans’ epic turnaround was the embodiment of practically each constructive sports activities trope spewed over airwaves and between sofa potatoes. A primary-year head coach taking a 3-13 squad to the second spherical of the postseason with a rookie QB on the helm? Hollywood could not write a greater script (properly, they may, but it surely would not get greenlit, not on this financial system).
Having unlocked a lot expertise in such a small period of time, the Texans seem like on a rocket ship headed towards boundless success. Understandably, fantasy lovers are desirous to hitch a trip. However yearly presents new challenges. Defenses could have had a complete offseason to check Bobby Slowick’s offense. Houston’s schedule will probably be markedly harder (going from a top-five SOS in 2023 to a bottom-five SOS in 2024). And there are two very recognizable faces on this latest of locations.
Whereas nobody is aware of for certain precisely how the season will shake out (the Texans are +105 to win the AFC South), this seems to be an surroundings filthy with fantasy goodness. But, untapping that potential and discovering worth inside it’s much less apparent. The distribution of targets stays significantly muddy. So, let’s dig in and get real looking in regards to the funding.
Demonstrating poise and accuracy properly past his years, Stroud averaged the second-most passing yards per recreation (273.9) and led the league in TD:INT ratio (23:5). The Ohio State product excelled at pushing the ball downfield, managing 8.2 air yards per try (with 22.8% of his makes an attempt exceeding 15 yards). Though he cannot be thought-about a “dual-threat” QB, the 22-year-old did rating three speeding TDs (QB12) whereas registering 2.31 speeding fantasy factors per recreation (QB14). Stroud’s (typically heroic) efforts culminated in a boon for digital traders, as he recorded the eighth-most PPR fantasy factors per recreation (18.3).
Whereas the reigning Offensive Rookie of the 12 months thrived as an environment friendly passer, he wasn’t significantly prolific within the pink space (23 passing TDs, QB13). The additions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, nevertheless, determine to spice up Stroud’s scoring potential in 2024. Any developments in Stroud’s maturation course of could possibly be offset by an elevated diploma of issue offered by the group’s schedule. It is due to this fact affordable to count on his throwing stats to stay (barely higher than) static. Nonetheless, the aforementioned uptick in TDs ought to increase his general profile, making the Ohio State product a top-10 fantasy possibility on the place. Think about drafting him earlier than Dak Prescott however after Anthony Richardson.
Mixon averaged 18 touches per recreation (14-15 carries and 2-3 receptions) over his final two seasons in Cincinnati. His effectivity metrics as a rusher have by no means popped (he has managed not more than 4.1 YPC since 2019). He has, nevertheless, shone as a receiver, recording a catch fee above 80% for 4 consecutive outings. The 28-year-old figures to renew his position as a three-down producer in Houston, significantly with Devin Singletary off to New York and Dameon Pierce because the lone menace to significant touches.
Pierce flashed as a rookie however woefully struggled in his sophomore effort, posting 2.9 YPC in 2023. The Florida product averaged 15.6 carries per recreation from Weeks 1-8 earlier than spraining his ankle and dropping the beginning gig to Singletary, who registered 16.7 makes an attempt per contest from Weeks 9-18. The extent of Pierce’s involvement stays to be seen, and DeMeco Ryans has talked about Mixon and Pierce working as a “1-2 punch,” however 18 touches per recreation (15 totes and three grabs) appears like an entirely affordable expectation for the previous Bengal. He is on the RB1/RB2 bubble for fantasy functions.
On the precipice of glory since his days in Ann Arbor, the planets (lastly) aligned for Collins in his third NFL marketing campaign. Successfully deployed by Slowik and expertly relied upon by Stroud, Collins was capable of showcase his acumen as a downfield menace.
Using an imposing body (6-foot-4, 215 kilos), strong ball-tracking abilities (11.9 YPT) and physicality after the catch (549 YAC, WR6), the 25-year-old emerged as Houston’s alpha wideout. An extra layer of Collins’ talent appeared through his effectivity, as he registered a formidable 3.3 yards per route run (WR2). Regardless of lacking two (practically three) video games, Collins posted a 80-1,297-8 stat line and ended final 12 months as fantasy’s WR12 general (17.4 FPTS/gm, WR7).
Collins’ expertise is clear, however will his targets fluctuate given Diggs’ arrival? Not by a lot. The previous Wolverine averaged 7.4 seems per contest when sharing the sector with a wholesome Tank Dell and eight.2 targets per common season outing when Dell was sidelined in 2023. That is a minimal shift, which signifies Collins’ position relative to the remainder of the corps. He’s the group’s X-receiver and figures to stay Houston’s most omnipresent pass-catcher, doggedly manning the surface. Projected to clear 100 seems, 70 grabs and 1,000 yards for his second consecutive season, Collins instructions high-end WR2 fantasy attraction within the WR15-18 vary.
There seem like two prevailing ideas concerning Diggs: He has both misplaced a step or that his manufacturing suffered attributable to final 12 months’s change in playcallers. The reality might be someplace in between. What we do know is that Diggs’ numbers dropped considerably after Ken Dorsey was fired, that Diggs was not happy with this modification, and that he restructured his contract to be able to play for Houston in 2024 (permitting him to turn out to be a free agent in 2025).
It is also clear that Diggs is a commanding and fluid route runner who has delighted fantasy managers for the majority of his nine-year profession. He has surpassed 1,000 yards for six consecutive outings and logged top-10 positional numbers for 4 straight campaigns (and top-20 FF WR stats since 2017). His elite manufacturing existed sans an asterisk till Week 11 of 2023. Diggs was the WR5 general in PPR fantasy factors (20.2 per recreation, WR11) over the primary 10 weeks of final 12 months. He scored seven of his eight TDs over that point, which is not surprising contemplating he drew simply two of a complete of 9 finish zone takes care of Weeks 11-18. His position within the offense was diminished throughout the board, and his numbers suffered consequently.
Some might argue that Joe Brady made the change, selecting to deal with the bottom recreation as an alternative of the group’s aerial efforts, as a result of Diggs regarded washed. The numbers do not assist that, although. Diggs averaged 2.17 yards per route run (WR15), racked up 399 yards after contact and managed 151 receiving yards after first contact (WR2) over the primary two and a half months of the season. These numbers may be down barely from his 2022 stats, however there is no denying that No. 1 was environment friendly and efficient after the catch underneath Dorsey.
Getting into his age-31 season, Diggs is probably going previous his prime. However he’s nonetheless a star. And he figures to stay one in 2024. The previous Invoice, whose aDOT has hovered between 10 and 11 yards since 2020, is anticipated to work because the Texans’ short-area goal, manning the slot and rotating with Dell on the surface. His YPR will not be monstrous (most likely round 12), however his variety of catches must be plentiful.
Diggs’ popularity precedes him, which means the Texans know that they are coping with a participant who expects a excessive variety of alternatives. The group introduced in a seasoned vet to raise Stroud. It is a strong plan for Houston and for fantasy managers, so long as they do not count on Buffalo caliber numbers from Diggs. He’s nonetheless, nevertheless, good for 80+ grabs and 1,000+ yards, making him a strong WR2 for fantasy functions.
Final 12 months, Dell proved that good issues do certainly are available small packages. The diminutive pass-catcher shortly climbed the Texans’ depth chart, rising because the group’s No. 2 WR after Houston’s Week 7 bye. Dell collected 5 complete TDs, went over 100 receiving yards on two separate events and averaged over 20 PPR fantasy factors per recreation from Weeks 8-12 earlier than breaking his leg in Week 13. The 24-year-old (who, as an harmless bystander, moreover sustained a gunshot wound this previous April) was reportedly collaborating at OTAs with out limitations and is anticipated to be a full participant at coaching camp.
Whereas Dell recorded a slot share above 20%, he thrived as an out of doors deep menace, managing an aDOT of 14.3 (WR12) and nabbing six of seven complete scores through the perimeter. A expertise as versatile as he’s explosive, Dell figures to spherical out the Texans’ trio of receivers. Given the fragility that he demonstrated as a rookie and noting that, whereas wholesome, he could also be rusty to start out the season, Dell’s alternatives are prone to regress heading into his sophomore effort. With most managers focusing their efforts between Collins and Diggs (each of whom are being chosen within the third spherical of 12-team workouts), Dell presents intriguing worth within the sixth spherical of fantasy drafts. He is a strong WR3, brimming with (later-season) upside.
New group, similar stat line. Schultz, as soon as once more, labored as a dependable outlet over the center of the sector, posting practically equivalent numbers in 2023 to these he managed with Dallas in 2022. Averaging nearly six targets, 4 catches and 42 receiving yards per recreation, Schultz gifted his traders with double-digit fantasy factors in seven of 15 outings and ended his first 12 months in Houston as FF’s TE10 general (10.0 FPTS/recreation).
Whereas the Texans drafted Stroud’s former school teammate Cade Stover within the fourth spherical of final April’s draft, Schultz stays atop the group’s assortment of TEs. He signed a three-year, $36 million greenback extension in March, signaling Houston’s dedication to the 28-year-old. Nonetheless, his goal share (17.5% in 2023) ought to wane with Diggs becoming a member of the squad. Schultz presents as a high-floor fantasy possibility, obtainable to managers preferring to attend on the place till the double-digit rounds. He is the ESPN consensus TE15 heading into the autumn.
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