That is the Tremendous Bowl made for playing. The American Gaming Affiliation estimates that People will wager a mixed $23.1 billion on the Huge Recreation this 12 months, up from $16 billion year-over-year. Whether or not it’s your first time betting on the massive recreation otherwise you’re a seasoned vet, you don’t need to be putting bets blindly. Take it from somebody who’s already put collectively intensive statistical deep-dives on this matchup: The percentages could be in your favor on this Sunday night time. Put in your greatest Danny Ocean impression, and prepare to rob Vegas blind this weekend with one of the best bets of Tremendous Bowl LVIII.
Reba McEntire Nationwide Anthem 90.5 seconds
Take the underneath
I mentioned in our “Most Outlandish Prop Bets” column earlier this week that I assumed it was ridiculous for McEntire to go underneath 90 seconds on the Anthem. It’s a breakneck tempo that solely marching bands play at. Singers savor the second. They soak all of it in, and add little vocal thrives. Then I noticed this playlist compiled by Reba(‘s YouTube channel) herself. It makes up a handful of her most notable former runs on the Anthem. I used to be blown away. She is EFFICIENT. Nonetheless will get the vocal aptitude in, adlibs a bit, and nonetheless will get in effectively underneath the wire. A few of her runs in the course of the World Sequence nearly end within the 70s. Her splits are loopy, hitting “rocket’s crimson glare” routinely across the 35-second mark. I’ll add she will get slower with age – her anthem on the 1974 Rodeo was a breakneck 72 seconds, whereas her anthem at a 1999 Cowboys recreation was precisely 90 seconds. If we’re being actually sharp, betting underneath 90 seconds might be chopping it shut, however any books the place you see a 1:35, or 1:40 line, hammer the underneath.
Patrick Mahomes 260.5 Passing Yards
Take the underneath
Mahomes is thought for his unbelievable achievements by the air. This nearly appears like a rat line. Mahomes has thrown underneath 260 yards in 37 of his 113 profession video games, playoffs or common season. Which means we place this wager on any recreation at random in Mahomes’ profession, we lose simply over two out of each 3 times. Of these 37, although, 12 have occurred this season, with one coming within the playoffs towards Buffalo. Mahomes additionally threw for simply 182 yards throughout final 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl towards Philadelphia. The Chiefs quarterback doesn’t sometimes over-produce in Tremendous Bowls, both. With a lot better offenses than this one, Mahomes has by no means damaged 286 passing yards in a Tremendous Bowl. This can be a quarterback that can do something to win. That features taking a backseat to the run recreation, or profitable along with his personal legs to reap the benefits of the 49ers. There are related sharp traces on Purdy for yardage and go try totals, however I believe traces are going to be far more favorable within the Mahomes division regardless of the same recreation plans.
Christian McCaffrey 128.5 Speeding + Receiving Yards
Take the over
I believe it’s protected to say that everybody who has achieved an oz of analysis into this recreation is aware of Christian McCaffrey goes to play an enormous half in San Francisco’s recreation plan. The Chiefs have been abysmal stopping the run this season, and the 49ers are one of the vital run-heavy groups in soccer. This can be a completely set line. McCaffrey has eclipsed 128 all-purpose yards precisely 16 instances within the 32 video games he has performed for San Francisco. That is, nevertheless, a little bit of a hedge on how I believe McCaffrey will get these yards. The Chiefs are top-of-the-line groups within the league at protecting up routes beneath. Of the 354 routes McCaffrey ran in 2023, 173 of them have been both flats, shallows, or screens, based on thirty third Crew’s The Edge. He runs the overwhelming majority of his routes (234 of 354) out of the backfield, that means they’re extra prone to find yourself within the short-yardage blanket the Chiefs cowl so effectively. The true juice on McCaffrey lies in his alternate speeding prop. When you might decide McCaffrey getting over 128 all-purpose yards at -120, you will get his over 115 alternate speeding prop at +205. I’m too large a coward, however possibly you’re not.
Rashee Rice 6.5 Receptions
Take the over
The Chiefs rookie has been the guts and soul of this Chiefs receiving corps, working his catch totals up dramatically over the course of the season. Since Week 11 of the common season, Rice has solely fallen in need of the 6.5 receptions line twice in 9 video games – as soon as within the Week 17 matchup towards the Bengals, and as soon as within the Divisional Spherical matchup towards the Payments. This barely conflicts with my perception that the Chiefs may have a extra run-focused, methodical gameplan heading into Sunday, and Rice will certainly have his palms full most definitely drawing Charvarius Ward as his essential task, however in case you suppose that is going to be a detailed recreation in any respect, Rice is the man to wager on. Plus, his odds for six.5 catches are far more pleasant (-115 at DraftKings) than Travis Kelce’s to catch the identical passes (-166 at DraftKings).
Brock Purdy 0.5 Interceptions
Take the over
Brock Purdy is an effective quarterback, however he’s nonetheless younger and a bit frantic. He’s superior within the Shanahan system as a result of he’s prepared to take pictures downfield and make some big-risk throws. Purdy’s additionally knocked as a result of he makes some big-risk throws at instances when he completely shouldn’t. Purdy is nice at escaping stress, however he makes extra turnover-worthy throws when pressured. The one manner the Chiefs are going to remain on this recreation defensively is that if they power Purdy to make errors. Kansas Metropolis will get one blunder out of Purdy on Sunday.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 19.5 Receiving Yards
Take the over
We touched on how loopy this line is within the “Outlandish Props” column, so I received’t go lengthy right here, however Marquez Valdes-Scanting is the one semi-functional Chiefs receiver not named Rashee Rice. He’s additionally Kansas Metropolis’s greatest big-play risk. Valdes-Scantling averages 18.38 yards per reception in his playoff profession. This 12 months alone, MVS is placing up 25 yards per reception within the postseason. That is nearly completely a wager on “Will Marquez Valdes-Scantling catch one go within the Tremendous Bowl?” Should you’re bullish on that, the road for his receiving prop can also be set at 1.5 receptions.
Javon Hargrave 0.25 sacks
Take the over
Nick Bosa goes to be the massive level of concentrate on the 49ers go rush, however the influence goes to be felt within the inside. With Joe Thuney struggling a torn pectoral, the Chiefs will possible be operating Nick Allegretti at guard. Hargrave and Arik Armstead have been glorious on the inside go rush this 12 months, and getting stress with out blitzing is a key consider stopping the Mahomes offense. You’ll be able to decide both of the 49ers defensive tackles to get a sack, I simply selected Hargrave off sack complete and playoff efficiency.
First TD scored
Decide Deebo Samuel
Possibly it’s the Jameson Williams trickery burned into my mind from the NFC Championship, however I simply have a sense about this one. I’m going into the primary landing prop like this: Of all of the doable permutations and mixtures of a landing occurring on this recreation, who has essentially the most alternative to attain? McCaffrey as a dual-threat participant checks out right here, however I like Deebo on the greater odds. Samuel is likely one of the most frequent tackle-breakers within the NFL, leads the 49ers in yards after the catch, and serves as a runner and a receiver. I just like the possibilities of San Francisco working one thing round Samuel’s hyper-varied skillset on the opening drive to attain.
Will There Be A Scorigami?
No
For the uninitiated, a Scorigami is a time period invented by Jon Bois used to explain an entirely distinctive rating that’s by no means occurred earlier than in an NFL recreation. I need to wager sure on this. Scorigamis occur within the Tremendous Bowl as a result of an uptick in threat, the elevated desperation to attain, combined in with a little bit of bizarre luck. That being mentioned, in case you look on the database of all scorigamis, we don’t have a ton of openings to work with. We’re anticipating this to be a defensive recreation, so if we hypothetically capped the profitable crew’s level complete at 31 (4 commonplace landing/extra-point combos and a discipline objective), our home windows are bleak. 11 is a risk to look out for – you may image a crew being held to a discipline objective early, then scoring and going for 2 late. The numbers it traces up with, although, (12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 29) are more durable to check. 8 has barely fewer openings underneath profitable scores simply as obtuse. The others would simply be one-off scores like 25-18, 18-9. To wager on Sure at +2000 just about comes right down to praying for a 20-11 consequence, or begging for discipline targets and safeties.
