The Buffalo Payments’ Tremendous Bowl lore is hardly tremendous.
4 straight journeys, 4 straight losses.
One heartbreaking end adopted by three blowouts. Over thirty years have handed, and Buffalo nonetheless hasn’t been again.
That’s about to vary.
Behind MVP candidate Josh Allen, a commanding run recreation and an opportunistic protection, the Payments are one win from a visit to New Orleans for his or her first Tremendous Bowl since “The Lion King” was launched in 1994.
First, Buffalo has to exorcise some playoff demons within the AFC Championship in opposition to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, who’ve overwhelmed Allen’s Payments all thrice they’ve confronted off within the postseason.
After that, Buffalo will battle both the ground-and-pound Philadelphia Eagles or the upstart Washington Commanders for the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 9.
The Payments have an edge over every of the three remaining groups, and I’ll clarify how they’ll conquer Kansas Metropolis earlier than toppling whichever NFC East squad they face for the title.
Up first: The 2-time defending champion Chiefs, who the Payments will beat as a result of …
They run the ball properly.
Buffalo averaged the ninth-most speeding yards within the common season (131.2) and has continued to roll within the playoffs. The Payments racked up 210 yards in opposition to Denver’s third-ranked run protection in a wild-card recreation and pierced Baltimore’s top-ranked unit for 147 within the divisional spherical, averaging not less than 4.1 yards per carry in each contests.
James Prepare dinner has achieved many of the work on the bottom this postseason, however Allen has chipped in 66 speeding yards and could be particularly harmful on improvised runs. The Chiefs realized the arduous approach in Week 11, when Allen rumbled for a 26-yard rating on fourth-and-2 to seal Buffalo’s 30-21 win.
Kansas Metropolis had the league’s eighth-best run protection within the common season however appeared susceptible in opposition to Houston within the divisional spherical. The Texans averaged 5.1 yards per carry, with Joe Mixon logging 88 yards on 18 totes regardless of enjoying with an injured ankle.
The Chiefs sacked Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud eight instances final Saturday, however their move rush needs to be much less of a menace Sunday if the Payments set up the run early and maintain it all through the sport.
Now onto the Huge Straightforward, the place the Payments will beat the Commanders as a result of…
They keep away from turnovers.
Jayden Daniels has been fabulous main Washington’s offense and can nearly definitely win Rookie of the Yr, however his teammates on protection have delivered a number of the Commanders’ largest performs of the postseason.
In opposition to top-seeded Detroit within the divisional spherical final Saturday, Washington racked up a season-high 5 takeaways—together with a pick-six—that led to 21 factors in a 45-31 upset win. The week earlier than, the Commanders pressured an important fourth-quarter fumble that led to a landing of their 23-20 wild-card victory over Tampa Bay.
Washington is 12-3 this season when it forces not less than one turnover and 2-2 when it doesn’t. That makes it much more necessary for the Payments to guard the soccer, which they’ve achieved higher than each staff this season. Buffalo dedicated a league-low eight turnovers in the course of the common season and has not had a giveaway since Week 16.
The Commanders have made groups pay for turning it over within the postseason, however the Payments might be in nice form if Allen and firm keep away from uncharacteristic errors that provide Washington with very important jolts of momentum.
Even when the Commanders don’t emerge from the NFC, the Payments will beat the Eagles as a result of…
They’ll comprise Saquon Barkley.
Philadelphia’s star working again launched into simply the ninth 2,000-yard marketing campaign in league historical past and has appropriately carried the Eagles by way of the primary two rounds of the playoffs.
Buffalo’s run protection ranked twelfth in the course of the common season, however the first half of the divisional spherical gave a glimpse of how stout that unit could be. After letting Derrick Henry run for 199 yards in Week 4, the Payments held Baltimore’s bruising again to only 21 yards earlier than halftime final Sunday.
Henry finally obtained going within the second half and completed with 84 yards because the Ravens ended up with 176 on 30 carries. Buffalo’s protection softened after halftime as Baltimore successfully balanced the run and the move, however the Payments nonetheless pressured three turnovers in opposition to a Ravens staff that had dedicated simply 11 all season.
Buffalo ought to be capable to lock in on Barkley with out worrying an excessive amount of in regards to the Eagles’ passing recreation, which was the fourth least proficient in the course of the common season (187.9 yards per recreation). Barkley has remained the point of interest of Philadelphia’s offense in the course of the playoffs, together with his 324 speeding yards accounting for simply over half of the staff’s complete offense.
The Payments gained’t stymie Barkley, however their opportunistic protection will make sufficient performs to help Allen and assist ship Buffalo its long-awaited first title.
