4 groups stay within the quest to get to New Orleans for Tremendous Bowl LIX. On Saturday, the two-time defending champion Kansas Metropolis Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans within the divisional spherical to advance to their seventh straight AFC Championship Sport. The Chiefs will welcome a well-known foe to GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium within the Buffalo Payments, who topped the Baltimore Ravens at residence on Sunday. The road for the AFC Championship Sport opened at -1 on Sunday night time and has continued to creep towards Kansas Metropolis.
Within the NFC, the Washington Commanders pulled off an upset of the No. 1-seeded Detroit Lions on Saturday behind a spectacular efficiency from rookie QB Jayden Daniels. The Commanders will journey to face their NFC East rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, who superior to the championship sport with a win over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles opened as six-point favorites over the Commanders and the road has moved down a half a degree since to -5.5.
This is a take a look at the place our workforce thinks you’ll find values within the early line earlier than they begin to transfer because the week goes on.
All odds are correct as of time stamp. For the most recent odds go to ESPN BET.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first guess: Chiefs -1.5 over Payments
Final week: Ravens (+1) vs. Payments. Line closed at Payments +1.5. Payments received 27-25.
Credit score to Buffalo for profiting from Baltimore’s myriad errors, however are you able to really matter on one other +3 turnover differential to get you thru the AFC Championship sport? The Payments had been out-gained by 143 whole yards to a sloppy Ravens outfit that completed the sport with 25 factors, 416 whole yards and a 70% third down conversion fee. Hanging 30-plus factors on the street was positively a chance for Baltimore. And let’s not overlook the officiating right here, which tends to aspect with Mahomes. Disagree? Since Kansas Metropolis dedicated 11 penalties for 120 yards towards Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tremendous Bowl LV (2021), the Chiefs have been penalized 30 fewer occasions for 222 fewer yards than their opponents of their ensuing 11 playoff appearances. I will lay it right here.
Tyler Fulghum’s first guess: Commanders +5.5
Final week: 6-point Teaser: Chiefs -1.5 | Commanders +14.5. Chiefs received 23-14. Commanders received 45-31.
I really feel like this line is overvaluing the Eagles by a degree or two. The Commanders have already overwhelmed the Eagles as soon as this season. Jayden Daniels is taking part in higher soccer than Jalen Hurts. Within the divisional spherical, the Eagles acquired one other 200-plus dashing yard efficiency and had been +2 in turnover margin towards the Rams and nonetheless did not cowl. They nearly misplaced the sport in regulation. I picked Philly to win the NFC and I will stand by that, however I really feel like this line ought to respect the Commanders a bit greater than it does.
Seth Walder’s first guess: Payments ML +105
Final week: Commanders-Lions over 55.5 whole factors. Commanders received 45-31.
The Payments are simply the higher workforce.
Excluding Week 18 (when each groups rested), the Payments have an enormous EPA per dropback benefit: .26 to .15. In different phrases, each 10 Payments passing performs are price one level greater than each 10 Chiefs passing performs. And the bottom sport? The very same story: 0.07 for Buffalo, minus-0.03 for the Chiefs.
Sure, Buffalo’s passing protection has been considerably worse recently, although over the course of the yr these two groups have been about the identical. And that is much less vital than offense, which is extra steady from week to week than protection. With a view to again the Chiefs, it’s a must to imagine in some type of ethereal Mahomes postseason enhance that I am simply not going to purchase over a Payments workforce that has demonstrated their superiority over the course of this yr.
Pamela Maldonado’s first guess: Chiefs ML (-120) vs. Payments
Final week: Commanders (+8.5) vs. Lions. Line closed at Commanders +8.5. Commanders received 45-31.
Fueled by their knack for pulling out victories in nail-biting vogue, the Chiefs have mastered the artwork of thriving beneath strain. Patrick Mahomes’ brilliance in clutch moments, paired with Andy Reid’s tactical genius, has routinely guided Kansas Metropolis to triumph, even once they’ve been outgained or seemingly outplayed. Their battle-tested playoff expertise and championship DNA present a psychological edge towards the Payments, who’ve but to exorcise their postseason demons towards Kansas Metropolis. The Chiefs ought to punch their ticket to a different Tremendous Bowl.
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