9 weeks of the 2023 NFL season have given method to heightened hopes for some and a heavy dose of actuality for others.
A lot of what we thought we knew when the marketing campaign started two months in the past has been confirmed. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are nonetheless good, the NFC South has no clear favourite and the Arizona Cardinals have struggled. We have additionally witnessed the unexpected — accidents to Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins, the fast descent of the New England Patriots and New York Giants and the rookie dominance of C.J. Stroud.
With that in thoughts, ESPN’s 32 NFL workforce reporters took half in a midseason reset. They lay out what they’ve realized via the primary eight or 9 video games and body what’s to return over the ultimate 9 weeks and past. Every workforce’s present odds to win the division and/or attain the playoffs and the place every stands within the ESPN Soccer Energy Index (FPI) rankings can be included.
Bounce to a workforce:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
FPI rank: 3
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 57.6%
Probabilities to win their division: 27%
What we all know: The Payments protection is strong — rating No. 5 in scoring protection — however accidents to key gamers are taking a toll. Three starters are out for both the season or a minimum of for important time, and whereas they introduced in reinforcements on the commerce deadline — CB Rasul Douglas and DT Linval Joseph — the protection is lower than the extent of play it was earlier within the season. One instance: The unit allowed 288 yards per sport via Week 4 and 370.8 yards per sport since Week 5.
What we do not know but: If the offense can turn into constant. That is the query haunting Buffalo, one thing that can decide the course of the remainder of the season. There’s not going to be a straightforward repair to getting their operating sport going (108.1 yards per sport) and having quarterback Josh Allen restrict turnovers (9 interceptions, tied for probably the most within the NFL). This unit is just too gifted to be held again by these issues.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The offense has averaged 6.8 factors per sport within the first half since Week 5 (ranked twenty eighth) and 13.4 factors per sport (first) within the second half throughout that stretch. It is taking too lengthy to get a lot of something occurring offense, and it has turn into a pattern for Buffalo to depend on late drives to work its manner again into video games. — Alaina Getzenberg
FPI rank: 5
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 93.1%
Probabilities to win their division: 71.1%
What we all know: The Dolphins have the power to place up yards and factors in a rush — they lead the NFL in each offensive classes, regardless of mediocre performances in two of their previous three video games. Miami can be scientific within the pink zone, scoring on an NFL-best 75% of their journeys contained in the 20-yard line. Defensively, the Dolphins have pressured turnovers in three straight video games after a sluggish begin to the season — they usually’re approaching full well being with the return of Jalen Ramsey and Nik Needham.
What we do not know but: Can this workforce win large video games? Miami has misplaced all three of its video games towards opponents with a profitable report — though these losses had been on the highway to the Payments, Eagles and Chiefs. Nonetheless, till the Dolphins beat an elite opponent, questions will stay about their viability within the playoffs.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Tua Tagovailoa has been sacked on a career-low 4.3% of his dropbacks this season. The Dolphins’ offense has put up online game numbers this season, however that does not occur if they do not preserve Tagovailoa upright — particularly contemplating his damage considerations coming into the season. His offseason physique transformation has confirmed useful, however he is additionally serving to himself by getting the ball out sooner than some other quarterback within the NFL (2.38 seconds). — Marcel Louis-Jacques
FPI rank: 26
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 0.3%
Probabilities to win their division: Lower than 0.1%
What we all know: The Patriots are in final place within the AFC, the playoffs are a protracted shot, and their expertise wants a lift. The offense has largely held them again, as gradual begins and turnovers had been a prime difficulty after 5 weeks once they had been minus-8 in turnover differential (at present minus-5). In the meantime, accidents to prime gamers Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez in Week 4 have harm a protection that has usually been the energy of the workforce.
What we do not know but: How does this season have an effect on possession’s view of Invoice Belichick’s future? Belichick is in his twenty fourth season as head coach, and his 331 whole victories (together with playoffs) are shy of solely Don Shula (347) on the NFL’s all-time listing. The query has at all times been when Belichick will get there. Now the query is that if he’ll get there as Patriots coach.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Patriots’ offense ranks thirty first in factors per sport (15.0). Preseason hope that the hiring of offensive coordinator Invoice O’Brien would breathe life into the Patriots’ disappointing assault from 2022 hasn’t come to fruition. The explanations for which might be multi-layered — from inconsistency and accidents alongside the offensive line to restricted expertise amongst pass-catchers, to QB Mac Jones’ incapacity to keep away from expensive turnovers. — Mike Reiss
FPI rank: 24
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 8%
Probabilities to win their division: 1.9%
What we all know: The post-Aaron Rodgers world seems to be loads like 2022, which is to say the Jets are losing a championship-caliber protection with a traditionally unhealthy offense. Held again by the restrictions of backup QB Zach Wilson, the workforce performs every week with nearly no margin for error, seemingly incapable of scoring a couple of offensive landing (one thing they’ve achieved solely as soon as). You knew it could be powerful when Rodgers was injured in Week 1, however not this powerful.
What we do not know but: Can Rodgers (Achilles) full a miraculous restoration and return this season? He positive hopes so, but it surely looks like a protracted shot. The best way the offense is sputtering, he will not have a lot of a season to save lots of by late December. With the offensive line’s struggles, why would they topic him to potential damage? This looms as an enormous storyline, however provided that the Jets can keep in competition.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Solely eight offensive touchdowns in 9 video games. Sobering context: The Dolphins scored 10 in a single sport. Wait, it will get worse: The Jets have gone 4 straight video games and not using a TD drive longer than one play. Their final two TDs had been a check-down go that sprung for 50 yards and an 8-yard run by which the protection appeared to allow them to rating in an end-game scenario. Their offense is as unhealthy because it’s ever been. — Wealthy Cimini
AFC NORTH
FPI rank: 2
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 95.7%
Probabilities to win their division: 74.6%
What we all know: The Ravens are a critical Tremendous Bowl contender. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is an MVP candidate, main the league in completion price (71.5%) and topping all quarterbacks in dashing yards (440). The protection is permitting a league-low 13.8 factors per sport whereas producing an NFL-best 35 sacks. During the last three weeks, the Ravens have overwhelmed two division leaders (the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks) by a mixed rating of 75-9.
What we do not know but: Will Jackson keep wholesome? Within the final two years, the Ravens had been in first place within the AFC North in December earlier than Jackson’s accidents derailed their seasons. With Jackson coping with an ankle damage in 2021 and a knee damage in 2022, Baltimore misplaced seven of 9 video games with out him in December or later. The Ravens have tried to scale back the variety of hits on Jackson this season. Baltimore has referred to as a median of 4.4 designed runs per sport, which is a career-low for Jackson.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Ravens have been so dominant that they’ve held the lead coming into the fourth quarter of each sport this season. That is tied for the fifth-longest streak to start a season within the Tremendous Bowl period, based on ESPN Stats & Info. Of the earlier 5 groups to take action, three went on to achieve the Tremendous Bowl, together with the 1998 Tremendous Bowl champion Denver Broncos. — Jamison Hensley
FPI rank: 9
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 54.4%
Probabilities to win their division: 9.4%
What we all know: After coping with a proper calf damage firstly of the season, quarterback Joe Burrow is wholesome and taking part in like one of many NFL’s greatest quarterbacks. Cincinnati ended the primary half on a four-game profitable streak, with Burrow placing up spectacular numbers. Since Week 5, he’s third within the NFL in Whole QBR, first in completion proportion and tied for first in passing touchdowns (10).
What we do not know but: Can Cincinnati’s protection proceed forcing turnovers at a excessive price? By way of eight video games, the Bengals rank fourth within the NFL in turnovers pressured per drive at 17%, based on ESPN Stats & Info. That has negated a yards allowed per play of 5.9 which is the NFL’s third-worst. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo will fortunately surrender the yards if drives do not finish in factors. However turnovers will likely be essential to Cincinnati’s postseason push.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Beginning video games robust has been paramount to Cincinnati’s success. Since Week 5, the beginning of the workforce’s present profitable streak, the Bengals have scored touchdowns on 42.1% of their first-half drives, based on ESPN Stats & Info. That ranks second within the NFL. When Cincinnati reeled off eight straight wins to finish the 2022 common season, the Bengals led the league in that class at 39.5%. — Ben Child
FPI rank: 12
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 54.6%
Probabilities to win their division: 8.3%
What we all know: The Browns have an elite protection. Cleveland is No. 2 within the league in defensive effectivity, led by edge rusher Myles Garrett, who’s among the many frontrunners for NFL Defensive Participant of the 12 months. The protection has been simply as tenacious as Garrett, spearheaded by one of many league’s prime cornerback tandems — Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr.
What we do not know but: If Deshaun Watson may be the franchise quarterback that propels Cleveland to a deep playoff run. Watson missed nearly all of 4 video games with a rotator cuff pressure to his throwing shoulder. Earlier than that, he hardly seemed just like the QB he was with the Texans. However Watson is again now and made some good throws in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals. The place he goes from right here will resolve Cleveland’s final destiny — this season and past.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Browns have leaned on their defensive backs to carry up in man-to-man protection (53.6% of the time) they usually have delivered. Cleveland is No. 1 within the NFL in lowest opposing QBR when in man (18.2). The subsequent closest protection is the Ravens, who’ve an opposing man QBR of 27.5. — Jake Trotter
FPI rank: 17
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 44.3%
Probabilities to win their division: 7.7%
What we all know: The Steelers are getting snug being in uncomfortable conditions. Since 2022, the Steelers have an NFL-most seven wins when trailing via three quarters, and quarterback Kenny Pickett has three fourth-quarter comebacks this season — already tying the quantity he had in his rookie season. The protection has additionally come up clutch in game-sealing conditions, together with an finish zone interception by inside linebacker Kwon Alexander towards the Tennessee Titans in Week 9 and a scoop-and-score by T.J. Watt to beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 2.
What we do not know but: The offensive id. A season in the past, the Steelers did not determine that out till the second half of the season once they began operating the ball successfully and used that to determine a balanced offense. The win towards the Titans and the workforce’s season-highs of 166 dashing yards and 5.5 yards per carry may very well be a sign that the Steelers are figuring it out. The workforce moved first-round choose Broderick Jones into the beginning lineup and offensive coordinator Matt Canada from the sales space to the sideline — two issues that may very well be key components to discovering rhythm and id.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Steelers are the thirty fourth workforce in NFL historical past to have been outgained in every of their eight video games this season, per Elias Sports activities Bureau. Of that group, they’re the one workforce with a profitable report in that stretch. The one workforce of that preliminary group of 33 groups to complete with a profitable report was final yr’s Steelers workforce, based on analysis by ESPN Stats & Information. — Brooke Pryor
AFC SOUTH
FPI rank: 19
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 26.8%
Probabilities to win their division: 12.3%
What we all know: The Texans have already surpassed their win whole from final yr (three) and are within the AFC wild-card hunt. Their No. 2 choose, quarterback C.J. Stroud, has been spectacular. In eight video games, he is third in yards per sport (283.8), third in passer score (102.9) and is tied for seventh in landing passes (14).
What we do not know but: Is that this actually a playoff-quality workforce? They’re within the ninth spot within the AFC wild card, tied with the New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers. They’re behind the Buffalo Payments, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers within the wild-card race. They’ve already overwhelmed the Steelers and can get a chance to play the Browns, Bengals and Jets. Additionally, the Texans are two video games again within the AFC South behind the Jacksonville Jaguars — who they’ve already overwhelmed as soon as. For the primary time since 2019, the Texans are taking part in significant soccer in November.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Texans have the sixth-best turnover differential (+5) and the fewest giveaways (5). They’ve performed clear soccer on offense, led by Stroud throwing just one interception. Successful the turnover battle has allowed them to be aggressive within the majority of their video games. — DJ Bien-Aime
FPI rank: 21
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 16%
Probabilities to win their division: 3%
What we all know: The Colts aren’t precisely contenders, however they’ve been extra aggressive this season underneath rookie coach Shane Steichen. He is raised some questions by way of decision-making and in-game administration, however his scheme and playcalling have generated important offensive manufacturing despite QB Anthony Richardson — the Colts’ fourth total choose this yr — being misplaced for the season to shoulder surgical procedure. The Colts rank seventh in scoring (25.8 factors per sport).
What we do not know but: The Colts have not proven practically sufficient consistency to show whether or not they could make issues attention-grabbing within the closing weeks of the season. Then once more, solely two of their remaining eight opponents at present have profitable information. And the issues the Colts have skilled due to accidents of their secondary is considerably mitigated by a few of the middling quarterbacks they will face down the stretch. Can the Colts overcome their quite a few weaknesses to be an element within the wild-card race?
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Colts have outgained opponents in yardage simply as soon as of their 4 wins. It speaks to the unconventional method by which the Colts have managed to win a few of their video games. That features an time beyond regulation win over the Ravens that required an NFL-record 4 area objectives of fifty yards or longer from kicker Matt Homosexual and Sunday’s win over the Panthers by which cornerback Kenny Moore II outscored his personal offense with two interception-return touchdowns. — Stephen Holder
FPI rank: 10
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 88%
Probabilities to win their division: 79.8%
What we all know: The Jaguars protection has been a lot better than anticipated. They’re tied for the league lead in turnovers (18) and are ranked third towards the run (79.3 yards allowed per sport). Linebacker Josh Allen is having the most effective yr of his profession with 9 sacks and 48 QB pressures. On offense, operating again Travis Etienne Jr. (583 dashing yards, eight whole TDs) has been the offensive MVP, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been strong and tight finish Evan Engram and receiver Christian Kirk are on tempo to higher final season’s profession bests in catches and yards.
What we do not know but: Can this offense compete with the NFL elite? The offense hasn’t constantly carried out at a excessive stage within the second season underneath coach Doug Pederson. Passing, dashing and whole yardage are down from final season and scoring is actually the identical (lower than a degree per sport increased) — even with the addition of WR Calvin Ridley. Lawrence is finishing 68.3% of his passes and has 9 landing passes. However the unit has struggled with pink zone effectivity (47.6%) and hasn’t put collectively a whole sport. To make a deep playoff run, the offense must be higher.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell’s unit has pressured a turnover in all however one sport. Their league-leading 18 turnovers have come regardless of the protection not but having its full lineup at any level within the first half resulting from accidents. CB Tyson Campbell, S Andre Cisco, LB Devin Lloyd, LB Dawuane Smoot and DT DaVon Hamilton have all missed video games this season. — Mike DiRocco
FPI rank: 16
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 10.1%
Probabilities to win their division: 4.9%
What we all know: Buying and selling for Nick Folks solved the inconsistencies at kicker the Titans have handled over the past two seasons. Folks has been excellent on all 19 of his area aim makes an attempt. His 19 consecutive field-goal streak is tied for the fifth-longest in franchise historical past. 4 of Folks’s 19 area objectives have come from 50 or extra yards out. He’s tied for second place, averaging 2.4 area objectives made per sport. The veteran kicker has additionally made all 13 of his extra-point makes an attempt.
What we do not know but: How a lot will accidents restrict Treylon Burks’ contributions? The second-year broad receiver missed 9 out of the final 25 video games. Burks was additionally unavailable for 12 days in coaching camp due to an LCL damage in his left knee. A separate damage to the identical knee precipitated Burks to overlook Weeks 4-6. Burks’ standing for Week 10 is undetermined after he suffered a concussion after trying to make a leaping catch towards the Pittsburgh Steelers final week.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Titans’ offense is scoring touchdowns on 34.6% of their visits into the pink zone. That is lower than half of their pink zone scoring proportion (70%) from 2019 to 2022 which was the most effective within the NFL over that span. 4 of Tennessee’s 5 losses this season had been by one rating or much less. Discovering methods to return away with touchdowns quite than settling for area objectives once they get contained in the 20-yard line is the distinction between wins and losses. — Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
FPI rank: 25
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 1.9%
Probabilities to win their division: 0.1%
What we all know: The Broncos are one of the mercurial groups within the league. They surrendered 70 factors — 10 touchdowns — to the Dolphins in Week 3 after which one way or the other gave up just one landing in two video games mixed towards the Chiefs. The Week 8 win over the Chiefs snapped a 16-game dropping streak towards Kansas Metropolis that dated again to Week 2 of the 2015 season. It was the Broncos’ third win previously 5 video games after an 0-3 begin.
What we do not know but: Will the Broncos concede that they’re higher on offense once they lean into the run sport? They’ve constantly been one of many league leaders this season in proportion of explosive runs (dashing performs of 10 or extra yards). In run block win price, they’ve constantly been within the prime three. But their offensive collection usually turn into pass-pass-pass-punt. Quarterback Russell Wilson has had 5 video games in his profession with fewer than 120 yards passing, and two of these have come within the Broncos’ previous three video games. Extra operating seems to be might settle him in and provides the Broncos extra of the play-action passing sport they’d like.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Take your choose — 70 factors, 10 touchdowns, 726 yards of offense and 350 dashing yards allowed within the loss to Miami. It was simply the third time within the league’s historical past a workforce had surrendered 70 factors, and it was the second-highest yardage whole in NFL historical past. That was the rudest of awakenings for coach Sean Payton and his employees. — Jeff Legwold
FPI rank: 1
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 98.8%
Probabilities to win their division: 90.4%
What we all know: The Chiefs are higher defensively than they have been since Patrick Mahomes took over as their beginning quarterback in 2018 — after which some. The Chiefs are profitable video games when their offense does not produce in its traditional method. They’ve allowed greater than 20 factors simply twice this season. The defensive investments the workforce made within the 2022 draft are paying off with nice performances from cornerback Trent McDuffie, defensive finish George Karlaftis, security Bryan Cook dinner and linebacker Leo Chenal.
What we do not know but: Midway via the season, the offense remains to be muddling via giant stretches of most video games, leaving some doubt whether or not the Chiefs can routinely return to their high-scoring methods. The broad receivers the Chiefs had been relying on, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney, have produced little. Mahomes is on tempo for the worst full-season passer score (96.7) of his profession.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Chiefs are permitting 15.9 factors per sport. That is the workforce’s greatest via 9 video games for the reason that Chiefs began 9-0 in 2013. These Chiefs collapsed down the stretch, however do not count on that to occur this time. The Chiefs are strong defensively in any respect three ranges. There was no weak point for opponents to select on and constantly make beneficial properties. — Adam Teicher
FPI rank: 30
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 0.5%
Probabilities to win their division: 0.1%
What we all know: The Raiders wanted a tradition shift, and shifting on from Josh McDaniels to interim coach Antonio Pierce labored — for a minimum of one sport. Or did you miss the Raiders beating the New York Giants 30-6 after which puffing on some cigars within the locker room afterward? Or the brand new basketball hoop within the locker room? Or the return of the Friday pre-practice dance circle? Or apply squad gamers allowed on the sidelines throughout residence video games?
What we do not know but: How lengthy will the emotional excessive final, and is rookie Aidan O’Connell the reply at quarterback? Jimmy Garoppolo is perhaps the most effective total QB on the roster, however the Raiders wanted a reset, and O’Connell, a fourth-rounder from Purdue, represents that. As Pierce stated, Garoppolo may really play once more in some unspecified time in the future this season, but when he does, that will seemingly imply one thing went flawed with the O’Connell experiment.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Edge rusher Maxx Crosby has performed 98% of defensive snaps via 9 video games. The 2-time Professional Bowler not often comes off the sphere. Actually, Crosby, who’s main Las Vegas with 9.5 of the workforce’s 24 sacks and is coming off his third profession three-sack sport, has missed solely two defensive snaps within the Raiders’ previous six video games. — Paul Gutierrez
FPI rank: 8
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 50.1%
Probabilities to win their division: 9.4%
What we all know: The Chargers cannot run the ball. After dashing for 233 yards and three touchdowns within the season opener, the Chargers’ dashing offense has stalled. They’re averaging simply 82.2 yards per sport since Week 1 and are twenty second within the league in whole dashing yards (809). “The operating sport, on offense, for us is a type of areas the place it is simply taken us a while to determine it out,” coach Brandon Staley stated. “However we now have the correct guys for the job.”
What we do not know but: Will broad receiver Quentin Johnston emerge as a constant contributor? The Chargers selected Johnston with the No. 21 choose within the 2023 draft, however Johnston has been one thing of an afterthought within the offense. His greatest sport this season got here towards the Bears in Week 8, when he caught 5 passes for 50 yards. Johnston will see his goal share improve, nevertheless, as Mike Williams tore his ACL in Week 3 and Joshua Palmer was positioned on injured reserve Sunday due to a knee damage.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Chargers are permitting probably the most passing yards per sport within the NFL (286). The Chargers have allowed simply 718 yards dashing this season, the sixth-best mark within the NFL. However the difficulty for this protection is that groups need not have success operating the ball as a result of they’ll get nearly no matter they need via the air. Their worst efficiency this season got here in Week 7 towards the Chiefs, when Patrick Mahomes threw for 321 yards within the first half, his most in a half this season. — Kris Rhim
NFC EAST
FPI rank: 6
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 95%
Probabilities to win their division: 13.7%
What we all know: The Cowboys’ protection will have the ability to have an effect on the quarterback and take the ball away. But it surely has achieved that since Dan Quinn took over as defensive coordinator in 2021. That is additionally when linebacker Micah Parsons arrived. He has 7.5 sacks this season and 52 pass-rush wins in eight video games. The Cowboys have 13 takeaways, and cornerback DaRon Bland, changing an injured Trevon Diggs, leads the league with three pick-sixes. However within the larger video games, they should come up larger, which they did not do towards San Francisco or Philadelphia.
What we do not know but: Are the Cowboys an actual Tremendous Bowl contender? Their 5 wins have come towards groups with a mixed 15-28 report this season. Of their largest assessments towards the 49ers and Eagles, they misplaced. However the loss that’s really galling is the one to Arizona in Week 3. If the Cowboys’ season ends and not using a playoff sport, that would be the loss that haunts them. 4 of their subsequent 5 video games are at residence, the place they’ve gained 11 straight, and the highway sport is at one-win Carolina. They nearly need to be 9-3 going right into a December with 4 of 5 video games towards groups at present with profitable information.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The offense’s 44% pink zone success. After main the NFL in pink zone proportion final season, the Cowboys are twenty ninth in 2023. They’re tied for thirty first in goal-to-go situations (50%), higher than solely Denver. The current loss to Philadelphia epitomized the problems. They acquired to the Eagles’ 6-yard line with 27 seconds left and couldn’t rating a profitable landing. They’ll drive the ball (6.4 performs per drive, which is No. 2 within the league), however they’ve to complete drives with touchdowns. — Todd Archer
FPI rank: 32
Probabilities to make the playoffs: Lower than 1%
Probabilities to win their division: Lower than 0.1%
What we all know: What might go flawed did go flawed. The Giants’ most essential offensive gamers (Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley) every missed a minimum of three video games. And now, each quarterbacks, Jones and Tyrod Taylor, are injured. The result’s that the offense is averaging 11.2 factors per sport. That’s nearly 4 factors lower than some other workforce. It is unattainable to win like that.
What we do not know but: Simply how unhealthy that is about to get, and the way a lot warmth will fall on Brian Daboll. He gained Coach of the 12 months in his first season with the Giants, however all that fairness appears to have been squandered 9 video games into his second yr. Daboll may have his fingers full attempting to maintain this all collectively within the second half of the season. His job is not in jeopardy, however this will likely be a check on simply how a lot of a deal with he has on this workforce.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The -116 level differential, simply the worst within the NFL. New England has the second-largest differential at -93. This implies the Giants aren’t simply dropping most video games, they’re getting blown out (see: Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, Miami and Las Vegas). That is how you find yourself 2-7 with a powerful likelihood to land a top-five choose within the 2024 draft. ESPN Analytics has it as an 90.4% risk. — Jordan Raanan
FPI rank: 7
Probabilities to make the playoffs: Greater than 99.9%
Probabilities to win their division: 86.3%
What we all know: The Eagles’ NFC title protection is off to a powerful begin. The Eagles boast the most effective report within the league (8-1). Quarterback Jalen Hurts is hobbled by a left knee damage however has labored his manner into the MVP dialog for a second straight yr nonetheless. They’ve elite offensive and defensive strains, and arguably the most effective receiver tandem in A.J. Brown (already over 1,000 yards receiving) and DeVonta Smith. The final NFC workforce to lose the Tremendous Bowl and return to the sport the next yr was the 1974 Vikings; Philadelphia is on a mission to alter that.
What we do not know but: Whether or not the secondary will stabilize over the second half of the season. Accidents led to a rotating solid at each security and slot cornerback, and that took its toll: The Eagles rank twenty ninth in go protection (257 yards per sport) and are tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed with 19. The expectation is issues will cool down within the again finish as soon as nickel nook Bradley Roby returns from a shoulder damage after the bye and newly acquired security Kevin Byard will get snug within the system.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Six. The variety of consecutive video games Brown posted 125-plus receiving yards, an NFL report. It took him simply 9 video games to go over the 1,000-yard mark — a primary in franchise historical past. Brown and Smith are making life fairly simple for Hurts by NFL requirements: Over the previous two video games, Hurts has a 92% completion price with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions when focusing on Smith and Brown. — Tim McManus
FPI rank: 28
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 7.8%
Probabilities to win their division: Lower than 0.1%
What we all know: Quarterback Sam Howell can play. By way of 9 video games, Howell, who entered the season with one profession begin, was second within the NFL in passing yards (2,471) and seventh in touchdowns (14) but in addition tied for first in interceptions (9). In his previous 5 video games, he has thrown 10 touchdowns to solely 4 picks. Howell nonetheless has loads to be taught earlier than anybody can rightly know the place his profession in the end will go, however he is off to a promising begin.
What we do not know but: Who will likely be retained? At 4-5, Washington seemingly will want a powerful second half for the coaches to stay round one other yr underneath new proprietor Josh Harris. The Commanders have not completed with a profitable report in Ron Rivera’s first three seasons, although they did win the NFC East in 2020 at 7-9. To assist their case, the protection, which ranks thirtieth in factors and twenty eighth in yards, should end robust.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Forty-four sacks allowed. It is a mixture of youth (Howell), an offense that has thrown the ball 38 occasions greater than the No. 2 workforce (Minnesota) and a line that wanted to be constructed higher. Howell was on tempo to be sacked 97 occasions at one level however now’s on tempo for 83 — which might nonetheless set an NFL report. Howell has remained wholesome, however the sacks have misplaced an NFL-high 293 yards. — John Keim
NFC NORTH
FPI rank: 27
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 2.4%
Probabilities to win their division: 0.3%
What we all know: This rebuild is taking some time. The Bears are 5-21 since hiring Matt Eberflus and Ryan Poles regardless of making aggressive strikes to construct a aggressive roster. Apart from seven losses, the primary half of the season was tumultuous for a number of off-field causes, together with: two assistant coaches leaving by way of resignation and dismissal, quarterback Justin Fields’ pointing to teaching as a doable cause for his “robotic” play, embattled broad receiver Chase Claypool being offloaded to Miami and cornerback Jaylon Johnson requesting a commerce.
What we do not know but: Who’s the Bears’ beginning quarterback in 2024? Even earlier than Justin Fields dislocated his proper thumb in Week 6, the 24-year-old QB did not do a lot to show he is the long-term reply. Rookie Tyson Bagent, who began three video games in Fields’ absence, has seemed good in spurts however has additionally thrown six interceptions. Chicago will get one final likelihood to guage Fields as soon as he returns from damage to see if he can enhance in crucial conditions and take fewer sacks. The Bears at present personal the No. 2 and No. 3 picks within the draft, which they could want to make use of on a quarterback.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Bears have the fewest sacks (10) and quarterback hits (36) and have allowed the second-highest passer score (103.3). Chicago’s lack of a constant go rush has been the principle perpetrator in its defensive struggles, which led Poles to ship a 2024 second-round choose to Washington on the commerce deadline in alternate for defensive finish Montez Sweat, whom the Bears rapidly signed to a four-year, $98 million extension. — Courtney Cronin
FPI rank: 11
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 94.9%
Probabilities to win their division: 77.5%
What we all know: At 6-2, the Lions are off to their greatest begin over an eight-game stretch since 2014 and have positioned themselves to win their first divisional title since 1993. After closing out the 2022 common season with eight wins of their closing 10 video games, coach Dan Campbell’s workforce has picked up the place it left off with veteran quarterback Jared Goff operating the present in an offense designed round his strengths.
What we do not know but: Can the Lions problem prime opponents? Campbell acknowledged throughout Monday’s apply the Lions “haven’t performed our greatest soccer collectively.” 5 of Detroit’s six victories have come towards groups with dropping information which might be 15-27 collectively, so there are nonetheless questions surrounding simply how professional the Lions are. The Lions have not reached the playoffs since 2016 and are 1-2 this season towards seemingly playoff groups with their lone win coming within the opener towards the Chiefs.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Lions have gained three consecutive residence video games by 12 or extra factors for the primary time since 1997. Ford Discipline has been an actual benefit for them. Goff has thrown a landing go in 17 straight residence video games, a franchise report. The Lions additionally recorded their first victory on “Monday Evening Soccer” since 2014 in a Week 8 residence win over the Raiders. In keeping with Vivid Seats, the typical value of a ticket to that sport was $252 on the resale market, making it the most well liked Lions ticket previously 15 years. — Eric Woodyard
FPI rank: 23
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 16.6%
Probabilities to win their division: 1.4%
What we all know: It is a rebuilding season, even when the Packers have by no means stated it. Should you weren’t satisfied earlier than, final week’s commerce of cornerback Rasul Douglas to the Payments simply earlier than the deadline ought to have achieved the trick. And that is not all unhealthy. Given the large chunk of lifeless cash (greater than $60 million, most of it from Aaron Rodgers’ contract) on this yr’s wage cap, it made some sense for GM Brian Gutekunst to spend a yr taking inventory of the roster and arising with a plan so as to add to it within the offseason with a more healthy wage cap and an array of draft picks (5 within the first three rounds). That does not do loads now for coach Matt LaFleur, who ought to hope that is not held towards him.
What we do not know but: Is Jordan Love the franchise quarterback? The most important draw back of getting the youngest roster within the NFL is that Love is not the one one making first-time errors. The Packers do not have a catch by a receiver who has greater than two seasons of NFL expertise as a result of they do not have a receiver who has greater than two seasons of NFL expertise. Throw in three rookie tight ends plus accidents to veteran left deal with David Bakhtiari and operating again Aaron Jones, and it is laborious to guage precisely what Love may be.
Stat that outlined the primary half: 59.6%. That is Love’s completion proportion via the primary eight video games. He’s one in all solely three common starters who’s beneath 60% (Zach Wilson at 59.9% and Matthew Stafford at 59.7% are the others). Packers QB coach Tom Clements insisted final week that Love doesn’t have an accuracy downside. Actually, final Sunday towards the Rams, Love had his most correct day of the season when he accomplished 20 of 26 passes, together with 6-of-8 on throws of 10-plus air yards. — Rob Demovsky
FPI rank: 18
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 71.5%
Probabilities to win their division: 20.8%
What we all know: Receiver Justin Jefferson is likely one of the greatest gamers within the NFL — however the Vikings can win with out him. Coach Kevin O’Connell constructed his total offense round Jefferson, and he had caught an NFL-high 36 passes for 571 yards when he suffered a hamstring damage in Week 5. Since then, the Vikings have gained 4 consecutive video games and are again within the NFC playoff race. That is due largely to a protection that has discovered its footing underneath new coordinator Brian Flores. Through the win streak, the Vikings have ranked No. 7 in scoring protection (17 factors allowed per sport) and No. 3 in each defensive effectivity and defensive EPA.
What we do not know but: If Kirk Cousins has taken his closing snap with the workforce. Cousins tore his proper Achilles tendon in Week 8 at Lambeau Discipline, an damage that can sideline him for the season. His contract will void in March, after the deadline to declare franchise tags, so he has a assured path to free company. O’Connell implied that he needs to re-sign Cousins, and common supervisor Kwesi Adofo-Mensah additionally spoke in optimistic tones. However Adofo-Mensah famous the choice “is not only a ‘me’ factor. It is a negotiation.” Within the meantime, the Vikings will depend on a mix of backups — Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Corridor, Sean Mannion and presumably Nick Mullens — the remainder of the way in which.
Stat that outlined the primary half: In beginning the season 1-4, the Vikings compiled the NFL’s worst turnover margin (minus-9). Opponents scored the fifth-most factors off these turnovers (37). Since then, the Vikings are tied for the NFL’s third-best turnover ratio (plus-4) and their offense leads the league in factors off turnovers (38). — Kevin Seifert
NFC SOUTH
FPI rank: 22
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 37.3%
Probabilities to win their division: 24.9%
What we all know: Bijan Robinson and Drake London are professional playmakers. London has 37 catches for 438 yards and two touchdowns, and Robinson has 714 scrimmage yards and is on tempo for practically 1,350 as a rookie. The offseason signings of security Jessie Bates III, linebacker Kaden Elliss, and defensive linemen Calais Campbell and David Onyemata have all improved the defensive unit.
What we do not know but: Whether or not Atlanta has a quarterback to rely on. Each Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke have proven flashes of actually good play — but in addition a bunch of very mediocre. It is why there have been questions the previous two weeks of who will begin. Tied in with that, the offensive line’s safety skills — notably towards the go the place 24.4% of dropbacks have been pressured — haven’t been constant and it is unclear if it’ll get higher this yr.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Atlanta leads the league with seven fumbles misplaced and 11 misplaced turnovers — one in all three groups with greater than 10, becoming a member of Chicago and Arizona. These turnovers have marred an offense that has moved the ball properly over the past month. Atlanta additionally leads the league with 4 pink zone turnovers (three fumbles, one interception), though three got here in a sport the Falcons gained towards Tampa Bay. — Michael Rothstein
FPI rank: 31
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 0.2%
Probabilities to win their division: 0.1%
What we all know: Carolina’s roster, even earlier than a rash of accidents, wasn’t ok to only drop in a quarterback like No. 1 total choose Bryce Younger and win immediately. Many lacking items stay, from a real No. 1 receiver who’s a deep risk to an offensive line that may shield and open up the operating sport. Till the Panthers fill these wants, it will be powerful to evaluate Younger.
What we do not know but: Whether or not coach Frank Reich is the correct particular person to show the group round. It is spectacular that he hasn’t misplaced the locker room after a 1-7 begin. However he was employed largely due to his offensive experience, and after six video games he turned the playcalling over to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, who’d by no means referred to as a sport. As promising as Brown is, the Panthers scored solely two touchdowns in his first two video games.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Opponents have scored 45 factors off Younger’s turnovers and 59 off Carolina’s turnovers total. That is the second most within the NFL behind the New England Patriots (69). The Panthers missed an opportunity to win a minimum of three extra video games resulting from these errors, together with Sunday’s 27-13 setback to Indianapolis by which Younger had two pick-sixes. — David Newton
FPI rank: 14
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 76%
Probabilities to win their division: 63.7%
What we all know: The secondary is the actual deal. The Saints have constantly pressured a minimum of one turnover in all 9 video games, they usually have had a minimum of one interception in seven of them. 5 completely different defensive backs have a minimum of one interception, and the Saints lead the league with 12 whole. These takeaways have helped preserve the workforce in video games when the offense has struggled, which does not appear like it will cease anytime quickly.
What we do not know but: If the Saints can constantly transfer the ball on offense. They rank twenty ninth in yards per rush (3.6), 18th in dashing yards per sport (103.9) and have but to have a 100-yard rusher in a sport. They’ve improved their go safety (two sacks previously three video games) however nonetheless have not put all of it collectively. The Saints say they’ve seen the potential on offense, however dwelling as much as it on a weekly foundation would be the large query.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Saints are twenty eighth in pink zone effectivity, scoring touchdowns 45.5% of the time regardless of enchancment previously three video games, the place they ranked fifteenth. Consistency might transfer them up the pink zone effectivity listing, preserve them above .500 and within the playoff hunt. — Katherine Terrell
FPI rank: 20
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 22.8%
Probabilities to win their division: 11.3%
What we all know: It has been a tough month. The Bucs went into their Week 5 bye at 3-1, and giving up solely 17 factors per sport. They’ve dropped 4 straight (giving up 24.75 factors), together with a 39-37 shootout on the Houston Texans in Week 9 the place the offense scored 30 factors for the primary time this season.
What we do not know but: Can Todd Bowles flip this factor round? The expectation was that the offense would battle early on with a brand new quarterback in Baker Mayfield and a brand new offensive coordinator in Dave Canales. However the protection’s dramatic decline the previous 4 weeks has raised questions on Bowles’ job standing. If the Bucs do not reverse course, does he get extra time, provided that he did not get to decide on his employees final season and the wage cap limitations attributable to retired quarterback Tom Brady’s $35.1 million cap hit?
Stat that outlined the primary half: In Weeks 1-4, Tampa Bay surrendered 318.5 yards per sport. After the bye, it has given up 426 yards, with many of the harm achieved on third down. Even the league’s second-best pink zone protection (34.6%) cannot save the Bucs right here. — Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
FPI rank: 29
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 0.1%
Probabilities to win their division: Lower than 0.1%
What we all know: The Cardinals cannot win with out quarterback Kyler Murray. It hasn’t mattered who else was behind heart. They went 1-7 with Joshua Dobbs and 0-1 with Clayton Tune at quarterback. Arizona’s offense, whereas hampered by accidents, hasn’t seemed clean or efficient all season. Murray’s return ought to inject some life right into a largely dormant offense underneath first-year coordinator Drew Petzing.
What we do not know but: What the offense will appear like with Murray again on the sphere, which is predicted to occur this weekend towards the Falcons. It might look vastly completely different than what it has been to date, with Petzing maybe holding again a few of a playbook that was tailored for Murray.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Eight: That is what number of losses the Cardinals have. Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Parcells as soon as stated, “You might be what your report says you’re.” However their report does not inform all the story. For many of their video games, they’ve proven combat, particularly on protection. The offense was in a position to transfer the ball underneath Dobbs, who was dealt to the Minnesota Vikings earlier than the commerce deadline. Closing out drives with touchdowns was a problem, which might change as soon as Murray returns. — Josh Weinfuss
FPI rank: 13
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 15.7%
Probabilities to win their division: 1.8%
What we all know: The Rams have a powerful rookie class. Led by broad receiver Puka Nacua, Los Angeles drafted an affect group, they usually did it and not using a first-round choose. Nacua (fifth spherical) has already set the franchise report for catches in a rookie season and the Rams additionally discovered a beginning heart in Steve Avila (second spherical) and linebacker in Byron Younger (third spherical). Younger has 5 sacks, which ranks second on the workforce.
What we do not know but: How shut the Rams are to contending. Los Angeles made the choice this offseason to maneuver on from a number of veteran gamers and give attention to their younger draft class. The Rams are scheduled to have a first-round choose in 2024 for the primary time since 2016, and they’ll have the wage cap flexibility this offseason to spend. This season has proven they nonetheless have fairly just a few holes on their roster, however the workforce has the assets to aggressively repair that within the offseason.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Rams are averaging solely 19.8 factors per sport, which simply has not been sufficient to win video games, even with a protection that has exceeded expectations. With the way in which they had been constructed this offseason — deciding to depend on a younger protection — the offense wanted to cleared the path. That scoring common is tied for twenty first, and though an enchancment from final season’s 17.5 factors per sport, it has not been sufficient. — Sarah Barshop
FPI rank: 4
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 96%
Probabilities to win their division: 83%
What we all know: At full energy, the 49ers are able to going toe-to-toe with any workforce within the league, however they’re removed from infallible with out their full complement of stars. The Niners are loaded with extremely paid expertise, which is nice when they’re all wholesome and productive. After they aren’t, the onus falls on a roster that’s extra top-heavy than it has been previously to select up the slack. The distinction is clear, as they acquired off to a dominant 5-0 begin the place they had been nearly absolutely wholesome, then misplaced three straight with out the providers of left deal with Trent Williams and receiver Deebo Samuel.
What we do not know but: Does this workforce have the power to drag out tight video games at profitable time? The Niners of current classic have been nothing if not resilient, profitable video games in practically each manner possible. However this group has a quarterback in Brock Purdy who hasn’t been in lots of antagonistic conditions and a brand new defensive coordinator in Steve Wilks. Purdy’s passer score drops greater than 30 factors when the Niners are trailing, and it stays to be seen whether or not he can constantly ship in crunch time. Additionally, Wilks should show that he can get the protection again to earlier ranges reached by Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans.
Stat that outlined the primary half: Let’s not overcomplicate this: The 49ers had simply two turnovers (tied for second fewest within the NFL) and a league-best plus-7 turnover margin of their first 5 video games, all wins. Of their previous three video games, they’ve seven giveaways and are minus-3 in turnover differential. It is no coincidence they misplaced all three video games. Turnover differential issues for each workforce, however the Niners have proved over the previous two seasons that there is a straight line between their capacity to win the turnover battle and their capacity to win video games. — Nick Wagoner
FPI rank: 15
Probabilities to make the playoffs: 63.9%
Probabilities to win their division: 15.2%
What we all know: Quarterback Geno Smith isn’t taking part in like he did throughout his sensible first half of final season. It has been extra like a continuation of his shaky second half of 2022. He is thrown 9 touchdowns to seven interceptions and ranks sixteenth in Whole QBR (56.2), with eight turnovers over his final 4 video games. Not all of them have been Smith’s fault, and he is performed behind a handful of backup offensive linemen with a distinct mixture of starters practically each week. However he must eradicate a few unhealthy performs every sport.
What we do not know but: The place do the Seahawks rank within the NFC pecking order? Solely the Eagles and Lions have a greater report, and the Seahawks beat the Lions on the highway. In addition they went toe-to-toe with the Bengals in Cincinnati, their solely loss in a stretch of six video games that included a win over the Browns. Then once more, they had been dismantled by the Ravens in a 34-point loss final week, and three of their wins have come towards three of the NFL’s worst groups (Cardinals, Panthers, Giants). The defining stretch of their season is approaching, with two video games towards the 49ers and one apiece vs. the Eagles and Cowboys in a four-week span.
Stat that outlined the primary half: The Seahawks rank thirtieth in third down conversion price each on offense and protection. They’re permitting opponents to transform 45.3% of the time, and after a 1-for-12 displaying of their blowout loss to Baltimore, they’re changing on solely 31.9% of their possibilities. The Seahawks are lucky to be 5-3 regardless of being so poor on the cash down, however that is not a sustainable pattern. — Brady Henderson
