What’s price betting within the NFL in Week 7? And what are the most effective performs that can assist you make sensible wagering selections?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder, Anita Marks and Aaron Schatz are right here to offer their ideas.
Word: Traces from Caesars Sportsbook until in any other case indicated.
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 51.5). Conflict of two 5-1 groups. The Dolphins have put up 73 factors the previous two weeks since shedding to the Payments. The Eagles return dwelling after the surprising loss to the Jets. How are you betting this sport?
Fulghum: It is actually scary to do, however I will play this sport UNDER 51.5. Betting on the beneath in a sport that can function the Dolphins and Eagles offenses’ on the sphere is extremely uncomfortable. The handicap I am hoping comes true performs out with the Eagles ball-control offense shortening the sport. They will restrict time of possession and play quantity for the Dolphins with their ruthlessly environment friendly offense holding onto the ball. The Dolphins’ dashing assault can be dealing with its hardest take a look at in Philadelphia maybe reducing their effectivity a bit. Take a look at it this manner, not less than in the event you lose you have doubtless seen a fairly entertaining shootout kind of sport.
Marks: Dolphins +3.5 (-157). The Dolphins had a formidable comeback final week. Their offense ranks first in a plethora of classes as a result of there isn’t any human on the planet who can cowl Tyreek Hill. They will crush you vs. man and zone protection, so the Eagles should choose their poison. Philadelphia’s protection just isn’t as fierce because it was final season, sporting solely a strain price ranked nineteenth out of the 32.
Moody: My suggestion is to again the Dolphins (+2.5) to cowl the unfold when former Alabama quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts meet Sunday. Miami pace on offense with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert poses a major problem for the Eagles’ protection. Whereas the Dolphins’ offense ranks first in complete yards and factors scored per sport, the Eagles rank second in complete yards per sport. I anticipate a high-scoring sport between these two groups due to their weaknesses on protection. Regardless that the Eagles’ offensive and defensive strains might be difference-makers on this sport, I imagine the Dolphins make the correct changes and can win in an in depth sport. Miami is 5-1 in opposition to the unfold this season.
Walder: I am going Dolphins (+2.5). The Dolphins’ protection is crammed with untapped potential — it is simply too gifted to be so mediocre! That is me being cussed, however I actually suppose any week now we’ll see that facet of the ball step up. Even when not, the Dolphins’ offense all the time provides them a fantastic probability, even in opposition to the Eagles.
Yet one more notice supporting Miami: Whereas the Eagles have a great run-stopping unit, they’re elite at stopping solely inside runs. Guess who runs exterior extra typically than anybody else? The Dolphins.
Schatz: Type of piggybacking on what Walder has written, I will level out once more what I ceaselessly write, which is that offense is extra predictive than protection. It is extra doubtless that the Dolphins proceed to have a stellar offense than it’s that their protection continues to be one of many worst within the league (presently twenty seventh in DVOA). Not solely is their operating sport well-built to go across the stalwart Eagles run protection, however they need to have a bonus passing, because the Eagles are twentieth in cross protection DVOA together with twenty sixth in opposition to quick passes (as much as 15 air yards). I will go together with Dolphins +2.5.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 43) is one other large matchup this week. The Lions are 5-1 and have rattled off 4 wins in a row. The Ravens are 4-2 and have held opponents beneath 300 yards in 5 of six video games performed (the Lions have but to be held beneath 350 yards). How are you betting this sport?
Fulghum: That is one other sport I might guess UNDER the whole. The Ravens’ protection is actually good and will get a lift in dealing with the Lions at dwelling versus on the street. I’ve talked about it many occasions, however Jared Goff has excessive dwelling/street splits in his profession however particularly since turning into Detroit’s quarterback. The Lions additionally convey a feisty protection to this matchup in opposition to a Baltimore offense that hasn’t fairly clicked in gear but this season. Regardless of that, I nonetheless suppose Lamar Jackson is the superior quarterback on the sphere, so if I needed to choose a facet I might take Baltimore -3 as nicely.
Marks: Lions ML (+130). The Lions are 3-0 SU on the street on grass and 7-1 ATS their previous eight video games on the street. David Montgomery could also be out, however Jahmyr Gibbs is anticipated to return to assist maintain this explosive offense rolling. The Lions are scoring touchdowns on 74% of their pink zone alternatives. In the meantime, the Ravens return from London and can face a Lions protection that ranks within the high 10.
Schatz: DVOA has the Lions all the best way as much as No. 2 this season, with the Ravens at a still-impressive No. 6. So usually I am on the Ravens bandwagon, however I am additionally an actual believer in how good the Lions have been. They seem to be a very well-balanced group on each offense and protection, each passing and dashing. I perceive the concern of Goff’s enormous dwelling/street splits from final 12 months, however these splits do not usually carry over from 12 months to 12 months. I am completely satisfied to take Detroit +3 and the factors.
Moody: I am backing the Ravens (-3) to cowl the unfold. The Lions are certainly one of three groups with a top-10 offense and protection. Statistically, the Ravens aren’t far behind. Regardless of Baltimore’s ups and downs all through the season, I imagine that is the sport when every little thing comes collectively and so they rise to the problem of dealing with a group just like the Lions. Groups coming off a sport in London with out a bye week are 8-4 straight up and 6-5-1 in opposition to the unfold since 2007. It is also sophisticated for the Lions offensively as a result of they will not have David Montgomery, and Goff has a historical past of inconsistent play on the street.
Which of the opposite video games are you wanting ahead to betting essentially the most this week?
Fulghum: The Steelers (+3) at Rams sport intrigues me as nicely. Lots of rhetoric across the Rams this season has been constructive, for good purpose. Matthew Stafford is completely slingin’ it. Puka Nacua has been a dominant rookie. Cooper Kupp is, nicely, Cooper Kupp. Even Raheem Morris’ no-name protection (exterior of Aaron Donald) has performed above expectation.
Regardless of a 3-2 document, it looks as if the entire rhetoric across the Steelers this season has been much more damaging. Largely due to the offense, Pittsburgh just isn’t fairly getting the love of another groups across the league with comparable information.
That is the kind of sport that might give the Rams’ offense some suits. The Steelers have a dominant cross rush with TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith. RB Kyren Williams, who is superb in cross safety, is out for the Rams. Stafford may see numerous black and yellow in his face Sunday. SoFi Stadium may also be predominantly Steelers followers, too, making this a pseudo dwelling sport for Pittsburgh coming off their bye. I do not thoughts taking part in the UNDER on this matchup, both.
What’s your favourite prop guess on Sunday?
Walder: Devin White over 6.5 tackles + assists (-106). Signal me up for betting a linebacker tackles over in opposition to a Falcons offense that likes to run the ball. White information a better sort out share in opposition to the run than the cross, and you recognize Arthur Smith needs to feed his operating backs. I challenge White for 7.4 tackles + assists.
Schatz: Gabe Davis over 33.5 receiving yards (-125). I do know Stefon Diggs has killed the Patriots in years previous, however the Patriots are the No. 1 protection in opposition to WR1s this 12 months. On the similar time, they rank thirtieth in DVOA in opposition to WR2s and thirty second in opposition to different huge receivers. Each Diggs and Davis ought to have the ability to get loads of targets in opposition to the Patriots for the reason that Payments will doubtless dominate time of possession, however I am going with Davis for the prop guess.
Moody: DJ Moore over 52.5 receiving yards. Regardless that Justin Fields will not be lively for the Bears this week, I discover myself drawn to this prop guess. Moore has had not less than eight targets in three consecutive video games, and I imagine that development will proceed even with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. The duo displayed some chemistry final week after Fields left the sport and may have success in opposition to the Raiders’ secondary.
Is there the rest you are taking part in on Sunday?
Fulghum: I am taking part in the Chargers +5.5 at Chiefs as a result of I am a masochist and I am taking part in Tampa Bay -2.5 vs. Atlanta as a result of I don’t belief Desmond Ridder on the street and the Bucs have been fairly competent this 12 months. I’ve to confess, my learn on the job Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield would do collectively this season is to this point approach off base. They’ve performed excellent soccer all six weeks of the season and their solely two losses are to the Eagles and Lions. I believed they’d be horrible. They may win the NFC South.
Moody: Browns OVER 22.5 factors. The Colts’ protection provides up the seventh most complete yards and ninth most factors per sport. The Browns offense could be very succesful, and so they confirmed that final week in opposition to stout 49ers protection. PJ Walker was beneath middle, not Deshaun Watson, which made that efficiency even higher. This season, the Browns offense has averaged 22.0 factors per sport on_ the street. On Sunday, I imagine Cleveland’s will exceed that quantity.
