The Week 16 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with nice matchups, and now we have you lined with what you might want to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters convey us the largest keys to each sport and a daring prediction for every matchup.
Moreover, ESPN Stats & Info gives an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, and our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a sport projection and a take a look at the playoff image. Analytics author Seth Walder picks out every matchup’s largest X issue, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody palms out useful fantasy soccer intel. Lastly, Walder and Moody give us last rating picks for each sport. Every little thing you need to know is right here in a single spot that will help you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL soccer.
Let’s get into the complete Week 16 slate, together with the Lions hoping to clinch their first division title in 30 years and a high-powered matchup between the Cowboys and Dolphins. All of it culminates with three video games on Christmas Day, ending with a matchup between the Ravens and 49ers that night time on ABC/ESPN+. (Recreation instances are Sunday except in any other case famous, and all playoff likelihood percentages are by way of FPI and impartial of different outcomes.)
Soar to a matchup:
CIN-PIT | BUF-LAC | DET-MIN
IND-ATL | SEA-TEN | WSH-NYJ
GB-CAR | CLE-HOU | JAX-TB
ARI-CHI | DAL-MIA | NE-DEN
LV-KC | NYG-PHI | BAL-SF
Thursday: LAR 30, NO 22
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NBC | Unfold: CIN -3 (38.5)
Storyline to look at: The Steelers and Bengals have trended in reverse instructions for the reason that Steelers received the primary assembly a month in the past, with the Bengals going 3-0 since and the Steelers in an 0-3 spiral. Earlier this week, Pittsburgh huge receiver Diontae Johnson mentioned the group that wins the road of scrimmage will win the sport. Contemplating the Bengals have averaged 115.7 speeding yards per sport since placing up solely 25 in opposition to the Steelers, whereas the Steelers have averaged 95 per sport since recording 153 vs. the Bengals, the bottom sport figures to dictate the end result of this rematch. — Brooke Pryor
Daring prediction: Bengals WR Tee Higgins may have not less than 150 receiving yards. Cincinnati is with out WR Ja’Marr Chase, and the Steelers are down safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee damage) and Damontae Kazee (suspension). That may be a recipe for Higgins to have an enormous day and construct upon his efficiency in opposition to the Vikings that featured one of many prime catches of the season. — Ben Child
Stat to know: Steelers QBs have almost as many interceptions (9) as passing touchdowns (10) this season. Pittsburgh ranks twenty sixth in completion share (62%) and Whole QBR (37).
2:00
Is Mike Tomlin’s message in Pittsburgh ‘getting stale?’
Damien Woody, Dan Orlovsky and Mike Tannenbaum talk about latest on-field effort points with the Steelers.
Matchup X issue: Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. He’ll be going through barely below-average deal with Dan Moore Jr. and might wreck Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph’s day in a rush. Hendrickson has a 22% move rush win price at edge, which ranks twelfth on the place. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Steelers mainly have to win to maintain playoff hopes alive. They’d have a 9% likelihood to make the AFC discipline with a win, however these odds drop under 1% in the event that they lose their fourth straight. The Bengals, in the meantime, could make a playoff assertion on Saturday — a win bumps them as much as 56%, whereas a loss knocks all of them the way in which right down to 13%. Learn extra.
Accidents: Bengals | Steelers
What to know for fantasy: The Bengals can not cowl tight ends. This season, Cincinnati’s protection has given up the second-most fantasy factors to the place. The Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth has averaged 8.4 targets, 6.0 receptions and 67.2 receiving yards per sport versus the Bengals in his profession. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers are 0-3 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) of their previous three video games. They’re additionally 0-3 ATS of their previous three video games as an underdog. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Bengals 21, Steelers 17
Walder’s choose: Bengals 20, Steelers 17
FPI prediction: CIN, 58.3% (by a mean of two.8 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Bengals will not have Chase vs. Steelers … Heyward clears concussion protocol … 5 largest catches of Higgins’ Bengals profession … Tomlin: Pickens ‘rising in numerous methods’
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Peacock | Unfold: BUF -12.5 (43.5)
Storyline to look at: Regardless of their points this season — which resulted within the firing of coach Brandon Staley and normal supervisor Tom Telesco final Friday — and the Payments’ latest resurgence, the Chargers have received 4 of their previous 5 video games in opposition to Buffalo relationship to 2011 and have dominated the all-time sequence with a 25-13-2 file. This sport shall be one thing of a reunion for Chargers security Dean Marlowe, who performed for the Payments from 2018-2020. — Kris Rhim
Daring prediction: The Payments’ offense will rating not less than 40 factors. The Buffalo offense has put collectively a few of its greatest performances of the season underneath interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, scoring greater than 30 factors in three of these 4 video games. Coming off the blowout victory vs. the Cowboys, each the run and move are a severe risk. The Chargers’ protection has allowed the second-most touchdowns and first downs, and it gave up 63 factors final week. With two groups on reverse trajectories, the Payments ought to be capable to put up some main factors. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Payments quarterback Josh Allen is in search of his fourth straight season with 40 mixed passing and speeding touchdowns. He already holds the NFL file with three straight seasons, and he can tie Tom Brady for the second-most seasons total with three touchdowns on Sunday.
Matchup X issue: The Payments’ protection. Abruptly, it is coming collectively. After scuffling within the center a part of the season following accidents to linebacker Matt Milano, cornerback Tre’Davious White and defensive deal with DaQuan Jones, the Payments’ protection confirmed a serious resurgence over the previous couple weeks in opposition to the Chiefs and Cowboys — particularly their move protection. So long as that continues, Buffalo ought to roll with no drawback. — Walder
What’s at stake: There is not a lot in play for the Chargers, however there may be quite a bit using on this sport for the Payments. A victory provides Buffalo a 71% likelihood to make the playoffs and a 35% likelihood to win the division. However a loss means 29% for the playoffs and 12% within the AFC East. Learn extra.
Accidents: Payments | Chargers
What to know for fantasy: Chargers receiver Joshua Palmer is firmly on the sleeper radar as Keenan Allen is not going to play because of a heel damage. He caught all 4 of his targets for 113 receiving yards and a landing in opposition to the Raiders in Week 15. In 18 profession video games the place he has been focused six or extra instances, Palmer has averaged 5.0 receptions and 64.7 receiving yards. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chargers are 0-5 ATS as underdogs this season, together with 0-3 ATS as house underdogs. They’re 0-5 outright and ATS in opposition to groups at the moment with successful data, too. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Payments 27, Chargers 14
Walder’s choose: Payments 35, Chargers 13
FPI prediction: BUF, 81.7% (by a mean of 12 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Payments’ huge speeding day behind Prepare dinner exhibits progress of offense … Why the Chargers fired Staley and Telesco … Ekeler says he is aiming to show himself forward of free company
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: DET -3 (47.5)
Storyline to look at: Whereas most eyes have been centered on how Lions quarterback Jared Goff will fare in opposition to the Vikings’ blitz packages, the sport might activate how effectively the Lions do — or do not — run in opposition to the Vikings’ protection. The Lions enter the sport with the NFL’s second-most speeding yards (1,973), whereas the Vikings’ protection has restricted opponents to the league’s fifth-fewest speeding yards (1,288). It is laborious to think about the Lions shedding if the Vikings cannot cease their speeding assault. — Kevin Seifert
Daring prediction: Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs may have the third 100-yard speeding sport of his rookie season. The No. 12 total choose continues to develop extra comfy getting into the ultimate stretch as his maturity stage will increase. Coach Dan Campbell views him as a trusted playmaker within the offense, and Gibbs will proceed to get loads of touches in Minnesota. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Goff has constantly excelled in opposition to defensive again blitzes. He has the third-highest completion share and yards per try when defenses ship a DB blitz, which the Vikings do on the highest price within the league.
Matchup X issue: Lions cornerback Cameron Sutton. One simple method to lose to the Vikings is to let huge receiver Justin Jefferson dominate. Sutton principally traveled with Denver’s Courtland Sutton final week, so presumably Jefferson shall be his major accountability. — Walder
What’s at stake: Let’s begin with an important factor … Detroit can clinch a playoff spot and the NFC North with a win. Even when it loses, it could actually nonetheless declare a playoff spot if the Seahawks additionally lose. However what in regards to the Vikings? Minnesota can improve its postseason probabilities to 70% if it wins, however these fall to twenty-eight% in a loss. Learn extra.
Accidents: Lions | Vikings
What to know for fantasy: The Lions’ protection has given up the sixth-most fantasy factors per sport to quarterbacks this season. In superflex codecs, Nick Mullens is an intriguing sleeper with Jefferson, receiver Jordan Addison and tight finish T.J. Hockenson as his prime receiving playmakers. The Lions’ protection additionally provides up the eighth-most fantasy factors per sport to huge receivers and the eighth-most fantasy factors per sport to tight ends. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings have lined 5 straight video games as an underdog (5-1-1 ATS this season as an underdog). Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Lions 31, Vikings 21
Walder’s choose: Lions 24, Vikings 20
FPI prediction: DET, 60.5% (by a mean of three.6 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Goff tosses 5 TDs in ‘bounce again’ win vs. Broncos … Why did not Vikings look to Chandler sooner? … Vikings to present Mullens second straight begin
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: ATL -2.5 (44.5)
Storyline to look at: Each groups will begin quarterbacks they’d no intention of beginning firstly of the season — Taylor Heinicke makes his third begin this yr for Atlanta rather than Desmond Ridder and Gardner Minshew makes begin No. 11 for the Colts rather than Anthony Richardson. Heinicke and Minshew have related paths — go from group to group, are available and play effectively when known as upon as a backup to the starter. “I really feel like we’d be fairly shut as pals,” Heinicke mentioned. “I simply suppose he appears like he has numerous enjoyable on the market, he has numerous ardour for the sport, and it appears like he is a form of wild-spirited man and I believe I really feel like I might gravitate in direction of that.” — Michael Rothstein
Daring prediction: The Falcons have allowed solely 5 speeding TDs this season, all of them by quarterbacks. However search for Atlanta to permit its first speeding rating from a operating again, with the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor ramping up after his latest thumb surgical procedure, the offensive line performing higher than it has all season and the Colts exhibiting a decided dedication to operating the ball. Indianapolis ran on 13 consecutive performs on a late drive throughout final week’s win over the Steelers. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: The Colts have had 19 straight video games with a takeaway, which is the longest lively streak within the NFL and their longest since 2003-04 (21 straight). With a takeaway, they are going to be tied for the third-longest streak by any group prior to now 10 seasons (final group with a 20-game streak was the Dolphins with 26 over 2019-21).
Matchup X issue: Falcons coach Arthur Smith. I do know fantasy managers have lengthy been calling for Smith to place the ball in rookie operating again Bijan Robinson’s palms. However severely, Robinson bought simply seven rushes and had one reception final week. The purpose of a playmaker is to have the ball in his palms, and you need to suppose it is smart to attempt to give the ball to him. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Colts have a 69% likelihood to make the playoffs in the event that they win, and a 32% likelihood to take the AFC South. A loss leads to 42% and 11%, respectively. Atlanta has an uphill climb it doesn’t matter what. A win means a 19% likelihood to make the playoffs, with a 14% likelihood to win the NFC South title. However a loss can be tough on the postseason push … the Falcons can be at 5% to make the playoffs and win the division. Learn extra.
Accidents: Colts | Falcons
What to know for fantasy: This season, the Falcons have not been a dependable offense for fantasy managers. However, do not overlook huge receiver Drake London in opposition to a Colts protection that has not too long ago given up huge performances to Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans. In each sport the place London has had seven or extra targets this season, he has scored not less than 10 fantasy factors. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts are 9-5 ATS this season, tied for one of the best file within the NFL. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Colts 24, Falcons 21
Walder’s choose: Falcons 22, Colts 19
FPI prediction: ATL, 50.8% (by a mean of 0.3 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Colts droop McKenzie, Brown for 3 video games … How the Falcons can win the NFC South … Sources: Moss goals to play regardless of shoulder damage … Heinicke preps to be Falcons starter down stretch
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: SEA -3 (41.5)
Storyline to look at: Titans operating again Derrick Henry’s 16 carries for 9 yards final week was his worst efficiency ever as a starter. Regardless of having a down yr, Henry remains to be on tempo for 1,073 yards this season. The Titans have to get Henry again on monitor to be able to win. He ought to get loads of alternatives in opposition to a Seattle protection that’s permitting 127.3 speeding yards per sport. — Turron Davenport
Daring prediction: Security Julian Love will make it three straight video games with an interception. Whichever quarterback begins for Tennessee ought to give him a chance or two. Neither is afraid to push the ball down the sector and each have struggled with accuracy this season. Will Levis (who harm his ankle final week) has the third-highest off-target share amongst qualifying quarterbacks at 17.8%, whereas Ryan Tannehill (who hasn’t performed sufficient to qualify) is at 18.2%. Love has 4 takeaways the previous two video games and can get one other in opposition to the Titans. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: Henry has had a career-low 3.8 yards per carry this season. Final week, he had 10 yards from scrimmage on 20 touches (the fewest yards from scrimmage with not less than 20 touches since particular person stats have been first tracked in 1933).
Matchup X issue: Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen. When it comes to what I am going to name yards saved — primarily the distinction between his yards allowed (by way of receptions or penalty yards) and what we’d count on for a mean outdoors nook given his taking part in time — Woolen is effectively above common with 57. If he can cut back the function of Titans receiver DeAndre Hopkins, that can considerably hamper Tennessee’s offense. — Walder
What’s at stake: Tennessee was eradicated in Week 15, so all eyes shall be on Seattle. The Seahawks, recent off an enormous win on Monday, can be 71% more likely to make the playoffs in the event that they win this sport. Lose, and that turns into 34%. Learn extra.
Accidents: Seahawks | Titans
What to know for fantasy: Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf is averaging 7.6 targets and 14.7 fantasy factors this season. His fantasy ceiling is far greater in a good matchup, which is what Metcalf has in opposition to the Titans. Tennessee’s protection provides up the seventh-most fantasy factors per sport to huge receivers. Having Geno Smith again underneath heart would assist Metcalf much more. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 1-4 ATS of their previous 5 video games as underdogs. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Seahawks 21, Titans 17
Walder’s choose: Seahawks 23, Titans 17
FPI prediction: TEN, 60.6% (by a mean of three.6 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Titans embrace spoiler function with a lot left to play for … Henry ponders future with Titans out of playoff chase
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: NYJ -3 (37.5)
Storyline to look at: The Jets’ quarterback carousel is spinning as soon as once more, as Trevor Siemian is predicted to exchange Zach Wilson (concussion). Siemian would be the Jets’ fourth completely different starter, the primary time since 1989 they’ve had that many in a single season. All informed, the Jets’ quarterbacks have a league-low 9 landing passes, 10 fewer than Commanders QB Sam Howell, who was changed late in final week’s loss to the Rams. — Wealthy Cimini
Daring prediction: Washington’s protection, ranked final within the NFL, will maintain the Jets to fewer than 250 yards of offense. Jets followers won’t contemplate that daring on condition that New York ranks final in yards per sport at 255.1. Nevertheless, the Commanders have held one group to fewer than 300 yards for the reason that season-opener (the Giants in Week 11), permit 384.5 yards per sport and have allowed greater than 400 yards in 4 of the previous 5 video games. It is bolder than you suppose. — John Keim
Stat to know: Receiver Garrett Wilson wants 118 receiving yards for his second straight 1,000-yard season. He can be the primary Jets participant to try this in back-to-back seasons since Keyshawn Johnson in 1998-99. And he wants 18 receiving yards to turn into the primary participant in Jets historical past with back-to-back 900-yard seasons to start a profession.
Matchup X issue: The Jets offensive line. It ranks thirtieth in move block win price over the previous two weeks, which makes life brutal for Wilson, Siemian or anybody taking part in quarterback for this group. Heck, Aaron Rodgers would not have had a simple time. The Jets merely need to be higher on this space. — Walder
What’s at stake: Simply a few eradicated groups in play in East Rutherford. Washington and New York can jockey for draft place, the place the Commanders would have a distant 2% likelihood to choose No. 1 in the event that they lose. Learn extra.
Accidents: Commanders | Jets
What to know for fantasy: It would be tempting to begin Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin, who might need had his greatest sport of the season final week in opposition to the Rams with 12 targets and 26.1 fantasy factors. However New York’s protection has given up the fewest fantasy factors per sport to huge receivers, so you may need to begin Jets operating again Breece Corridor and Garrett Wilson as an alternative. When it comes to fantasy factors allowed per sport, the Commanders’ protection provides up the sixth most for operating backs and second most for huge receivers. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 0-4 ATS of their previous 4 video games, the longest lively ATS shedding streak within the NFL. The Jets are 1-6 ATS of their previous seven video games. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Jets 19, Commanders 13
Walder’s choose: Commanders 19, Jets 16
FPI prediction: NYJ, 56.2% (by a mean of two.1 factors)
Matchup must-reads: The case for and in opposition to Howell remaining Commanders’ QB … Jets activating Rodgers, however QB will not be taking part in this season … Rodgers performed 4 snaps and swallowed the Jets’ season
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: GB -5 (37.5)
Storyline to look at: This can be a must-win sport for the Packers, who’ve seen their playoff hopes drop with consecutive losses. You’d suppose the Panthers can be a good matchup, as they have not scored an offensive landing the previous two video games and have not scored an offensive first-half landing in seven video games, however in a key approach, it is not. Carolina has dedicated to the run the previous three video games and averaged 155.3 yards on the bottom. Inexperienced Bay, ranked thirtieth within the NFL in opposition to the run, has given up 158.5 yards speeding per sport the previous six video games, twice permitting greater than 200 yards. — David Newton
Daring prediction: The Panthers will hit the 20-point mark in opposition to the Packers’ protection. It might finish an eight-game streak during which they’ve been held to fewer than 20 factors, the longest streak in franchise historical past and tied with the Giants for the longest streak within the NFL this season. The Giants, by the way in which, put up 24 on the Packers two weeks in the past. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Packers quarterback Jordan Love ranks within the prime 5 within the NFL in Whole QBR (74), landing passes (9) and completions (101) for the reason that begin of Week 12 (Inexperienced Bay is 2-2 in that span).
Matchup X issue: The Panthers’ run protection. It ranks final in EPA per designed carry — which is unhealthy as a result of the Panthers have been behind consistently and confronted numerous run conditions — however have been higher of late, rating thirteenth within the class since Week 10. Hey, it is one thing. — Walder
What’s at stake: A few weeks in the past, Inexperienced Bay regarded prefer it was on a strong path to the playoffs. Now, the Packers would drop to five% in the event that they lose (nonetheless simply 29% in the event that they win). And Carolina’s draft choose — which belongs to Chicago — can be 92% more likely to be No. 1 if it loses a thirteenth sport. Apparently, these odds are 58% if the Panthers discover a method to win. Learn extra.
Accidents: Packers | Panthers
What to know for fantasy: The Packers’ backfield stays a committee, however Aaron Jones completed final week with 17 touches and 69 whole yards. He faces a Panthers protection that has given up the third-most fantasy factors per sport to operating backs. In 5 of its previous six video games, Carolina’s protection has allowed 80 or extra yards and a landing to opposing operating backs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 1-6 ATS of their previous seven video games as highway favorites. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Packers 24, Panthers 17
Walder’s choose: Packers 31, Panthers 17
FPI prediction: GB, 69.3% (by a mean of 6.7 factors)
Matchup must-reads: LaFleur says he’ll stick to Barry … Hurst speaks about concussion restoration … Younger exhibits promise, leads Panthers on successful drive
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: CLE -2.5 (39.5)
Storyline to look at: This matchup options a few of the greatest cornerback play within the NFL. The Browns’ cornerback trio of Martin Emerson Jr. (42.9), Denzel Ward (45.3) and Greg Newsome II (66.4) permit a passer score of 66 or decrease when focused, all rating within the prime 12 in that class. The Texans’ cornerback duo of Steven Nelson (67.9) and Derek Stingley Jr. (58.9) are in the same tier. Anticipate some powerful sledding for quarterbacks throwing to huge receivers. — DJ Bien-Aime
Daring prediction: The Browns have received a franchise-record 5 instances with a game-winning drive within the last two minutes of regulation this season. They’ll add to that Sunday, as Cleveland will win a sixth sport that approach with one other dramatic fourth-quarter comeback in Houston. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: The Texans are 4-1 in opposition to groups that entered with a successful file, tied for the fourth-best win share within the NFL — solely the 49ers (5-0), Falcons (2-0) and Ravens (5-1) have been higher.
1:52
Pat McAfee: Joe Flacco is making issues occur in Cleveland
Pat McAfee raves about Joe Flacco’s comeback efficiency vs. the Bears.
Matchup X issue: Browns tackles Geron Christian and James Hudson III. These backups have been strong — roughly common in move block win price — however they’re going to need to face a feisty Texans move rush that sacked Will Levis seven instances final week. — Walder
What’s at stake: It is a huge one for the AFC playoff race! Let’s begin with Houston. The Texans would have a 72% likelihood to make the playoffs, together with a 28% likelihood to take the division, in the event that they win … however these numbers slide to 33% and seven%, respectively, in the event that they lose. The Browns can soar to 99% to make the playoffs in the event that they win (80% in a loss), they usually even have seven completely different clinching eventualities (largely revolving round Denver and Pittsburgh shedding) in the event that they get the victory. A win would additionally preserve their AFC North hopes alive at 14%. Learn extra.
Accidents: Browns | Texans
What to know for fantasy: Accidents to the offensive line have contributed to the Browns’ latest struggles operating the soccer. Since quarterback Joe Flacco has performed effectively, Cleveland is more likely to look extra to the passing sport. That’s nice for David Njoku, because the Texans’ protection provides up the seventh-most fantasy factors per sport to tight ends. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: 4 of the previous 5 Texans video games have gone underneath the whole. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Browns 23, Texans 20
Walder’s choose: Texans 20, Browns 14
FPI prediction: CLE, 53% (by a mean of 1 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Stefanski: Garrett needs to be Defensive Participant of the 12 months … Stroud stays in concussion protocol … Njoku’s revival has boosted the Browns
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: TB -3 (41.5)
Storyline to look at: The Bucs’ three-game win streak propelled them to the highest of the NFC South, whereas the Jaguars are on a three-game shedding streak and hoping to carry on to the AFC South, which is immersed in a three-team tie. A lot rides on Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s standing within the concussion protocol — if he is not cleared, it will mark the primary missed sport of his NFL profession. — Jenna Laine
Daring prediction: The Jaguars will rush for fewer than 50 yards — even when Lawrence performs. The Bucs rank ninth in rush protection (96 yards per sport) whereas the Jaguars’ run sport has actually struggled the previous month (71.3 yards per sport), particularly up the center. They’ve averaged simply 10.5 yards per sport speeding up the center the previous 4 video games. That is with Lawrence on the sector, too. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: Bucs wideout Mike Evans has 92 profession receiving touchdowns, tied with Davante Adams and Rob Gronkowski for twelfth most all-time (Don Hutson is subsequent up with 99).
Matchup X issue: Jaguars cornerback Darious Williams. He is having a heck of a yr, with 1.1 yards per protection snap allowed and minus-14 EPA allowed per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats — each better-than-average numbers for an outdoor nook. And that issues a ton on this sport as a result of not less than a few of the time he’ll face Evans, who can be having a really sturdy season. — Walder
What’s at stake: A Jaguars win would imply a 92% likelihood to take a playoff berth, and an 82% likelihood to win the AFC South. A Jaguars loss would drop these to 62% and 42%, respectively. And over within the NFC, the Buccaneers might soar to 83% to make the playoffs, they usually’d be 75% more likely to win their division with a win. Issues nonetheless look first rate in a loss — Tampa Bay can be 55% for the playoffs and 44% for the NFC South. Learn extra.
Accidents: Jaguars | Buccaneers
What to know for fantasy: Lawrence has a superb matchup in opposition to the Buccaneers’ secondary if he clears concussion protocol. Tampa Bay’s protection has allowed the second-most passing yards per sport to opponents and the sixth-most fantasy factors per sport to quarterbacks. Receivers Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones must also profit from this. And do not forget about tight finish Evan Engram, because the Bucs’ protection permits the sixth-most fantasy factors per sport to tight ends. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Buccaneers are 0-6 outright in opposition to groups at the moment with successful data (3-3 ATS). Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Buccaneers 24, Jaguars 19
Walder’s choose: Jaguars 26, Buccaneers 24
FPI prediction: JAX, 50% (by a mean of 0.1 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Why the Jaguars don’t have any margin for error … Bucs LB Barrett approaching first Christmas since lack of daughter … Buccaneers, Mayfield sizzling at proper time amid playoff race
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: CHI -4 (43.5)
Storyline to look at: The Bears return house to Soldier Subject, the place they’ve received their previous three video games, after a blown double-digit fourth-quarter lead (their third of the season) in Cleveland all however worn out their playoff hopes. Each groups are in place to begin enthusiastic about 2024 with three video games remaining and questions as as to if their present beginning QBs — Justin Fields and Kyler Murray — will stay in these positions subsequent season. They’re each in play for a top-two choose in a draft probably topped by quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. — Courtney Cronin
Daring prediction: Cardinals operating again James Conner will proceed his tear in opposition to the top-ranked Bears protection together with his second 100-yard sport prior to now three. The Bears are permitting 79.8 yards per sport. Conner is averaging 71.7 this season, however he has averaged 95.5 the previous two video games. The Bears haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: The Cardinals have a 7-24 file for the reason that begin of final season. The following loss would give them their most losses in a two-season span for the reason that franchise moved to Arizona in 1988 (misplaced 24 video games over the 1991-92 seasons).
2:09
Why Tannenbaum, Woody cannot agree on Justin Fields’ future with Bears
Mike Tannenbaum and Damien Woody debate whether or not the Bears ought to preserve Justin Fields or transfer on.
Matchup X issue: Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards. There’s an old-school superior metric known as “plus-EPA” for defenders, which awards your complete EPA of any constructive play for the protection to any defender who exhibits up within the play-by-play (by way of deal with, sack, quarterback hit, move defensed, and so forth.). Linebackers often fare effectively, however Edwards leads the NFL within the metric this season. He can assist shut down the Cardinals on Sunday. — Walder
What’s at stake: Properly, a Chicago win would give it a 1% likelihood to make the playoffs. So there’s that. Arizona — which is eradicated — might make a slight push towards the highest draft choose if it loses (7%). Learn extra.
Accidents: Cardinals | Bears
What to know for fantasy: Fields’ dual-threat potential needs to be on full show in opposition to a Cardinals protection that has given up the eighth-most fantasy factors per sport to quarterbacks. Receiver DJ Moore can be effectively positioned for fulfillment. He has had eight or extra targets in 5 consecutive video games. Moore has scored 20 or extra fantasy factors in three of them. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Murray is 15-5-1 ATS in his profession as a highway underdog (12-9 outright). Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Bears 27, Cardinals 24
Walder’s choose: Cardinals 27, Bears 23
FPI prediction: CHI, 62% (by a mean of 4.1 factors)
Matchup must-reads: McBride exhibiting excessive ceiling early … Bears attain historic depths of blowing late leads … Bears’ prime WRs say Fields needs to be group’s QB in 2024
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: MIA -1 (49.5)
Storyline to look at: Dolphins huge receiver Tyreek Hill, who returned to apply Thursday after lacking final week’s sport due to an ankle damage, must common 152.6 receiving yards over his subsequent three video games to be able to turn into the primary participant in NFL historical past to interrupt the two,000-yard barrier. Which may show tough in opposition to a Cowboys protection that has not allowed a 150-yard receiver since 2021 and has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per sport within the league this season. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Daring prediction: Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb may have not less than 9 catches, which can set up a franchise file for catches in a season with 112. Michael Irvin set the file in 1995 with 111. Jason Witten had 110 in 2012 for the second most. Lamb has had 5 video games this season with not less than 11 receptions. The Dolphins have allowed solely two receivers — Adam Thielen and A.J. Brown — to make greater than 9 catches in a sport this season. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: This matchup between the Cowboys and Dolphins options the highest two scoring offenses, with each averaging greater than 30 factors per sport (Dolphins 31.5, Cowboys 30.8). This would be the third time for the reason that 1970 merger that two groups averaging not less than 30 factors met inside the last three weeks of the common season. The earlier two such matchups occurred in 1983 (Washington defeated the Cowboys in Week 15) and 2020 (the Packers defeated the Titans in Week 16).
Matchup X issue: Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland. Bland giveth and Bland taketh. On one hand, he has one of the best EPA allowed (minus-36) of all corners this season, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. Nevertheless, on a down-to-down foundation, he is giving up extra yards than the typical nook (1.6, not counting his 67 penalty yards). In opposition to receiver Jaylen Waddle (and perhaps Hill), Bland’s function shall be crucial. — Walder
What’s at stake: Miami can be a part of its opponent within the playoffs with a win, and it will additionally take its division with a win and a Buffalo loss. The Dolphins can be at 80% to win the AFC East in a win however 58% in a loss, they usually’ll even be watching the race for the highest seed within the AFC (30% in a win, 9% in a loss). And the Cowboys will primarily give attention to the NFC East, the place they’d have a 34% likelihood with a win and a 24% likelihood in the event that they lose. Learn extra.
Accidents: Cowboys | Dolphins
What to know for fantasy: The Dolphins have scored a landing on 37% of their drives at house, the second-highest share within the league. This season, Miami averages 36.0 factors per sport at house. Though the Cowboys’ protection is hard, gamers like Hill, Waddle and operating backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane needs to be included in fantasy lineups. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS as favorites this season. The Cowboys are 0-3 ATS as underdogs. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Dolphins 35, Cowboys 28
Walder’s choose: Dolphins 27, Cowboys 20
FPI prediction: DAL, 49.8% (by a mean of 0.0 factors)
Matchup must-reads: How Aubrey went from professional soccer to Cowboys kicker … Tagovailoa ignores criticism, cares provided that Dolphins win … Cowboys clinch playoff spot, however ‘mind-boggling’ highway woes proceed … Can Hill nonetheless break Johnson’s file?
8:15 p.m. ET | NFL Community | Unfold: DEN -7 (34.5)
Storyline to look at: How dedicated are the Broncos to their run sport in opposition to a Patriots protection that’s No. 2 within the league in opposition to the run, is No. 1 in fewest speeding yards allowed per play and can spend loads of assets attempting to maintain the ball out of Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton’s palms? No person is advocating the veer, and the Broncos’ loss in Detroit confirmed they should possess the ball. In any other case a Denver protection that has regarded drained from all of the heavy lifting it has accomplished to get the group out of its 1-5 begin might be uncovered. It is time for the offense to drag the Broncos by way of, particularly on the bottom. — Jeff Legwold
Daring prediction: Each groups may have a kick or punt return for a TD. The Broncos rank No. 1 within the NFL in kickoff returns, led by Marvin Mims Jr. (28.5-yard common), who already has a 99-yard return for a TD this season. Mims additionally averages 16.9 yards per punt return. In the meantime, Jalen Reagor gave the Patriots’ kickoff return unit a spark final week (28.0 common, with an extended of 40, on three returns). — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Broncos have received 4 straight house video games after beginning the season 0-3 at house. Denver is in search of its first five-game house successful streak in a season since 2014.
Matchup X issue: Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson, for the straightforward motive that the quickest (solely?) approach for Denver to lose this sport is thru offensive turnovers. So long as Wilson protects the ball, Denver needs to be high-quality. Wilson has been conservative all yr, with simply 6.6 air yards per try. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos are combating for playoff hope, and a win would put them at 32% to make the ultimate AFC discipline. However a loss drops that to three%. And the Patriots are eradicated however nonetheless very a lot in No. 1 choose rivalry; a loss would slot them at 19% to choose atop the board. Learn extra.
Accidents: Patriots | Broncos
What to know for fantasy: It will likely be tough to have faith in Wilson in opposition to the Patriots. This season, New England’s protection has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy factors per sport to quarterbacks. Relating to Wilson, or receivers Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, fantasy managers ought to mood their expectations. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots are 1-4 ATS of their previous 5 highway video games. They’re additionally 1-6 ATS of their previous seven video games as highway underdogs. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Broncos 27, Patriots 17
Walder’s choose: Broncos 23, Patriots 12
FPI prediction: DEN, 65.6% (by a mean of 5.3 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Agent: Jackson coping with ‘psychological well being points’ … Broncos might want to enhance in opposition to move rush to beat Patriots … Jackson returns to apply after second suspension
Monday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: KC -10 (40.5)
Storyline to look at: The Chiefs have overwhelmed the Raiders in 10 of 11 video games with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, however that does not inform the entire story. In solely three of these victories was the ultimate margin lower than 14 factors. In any other case, they have been lopsided. So the query heading into this one is: Can the Raiders discover a method to keep shut and provides themselves an opportunity to win by making performs late within the sport? — Adam Teicher
Daring prediction: Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby, who has a career-high 13.5 sacks, will sack his “frenemy” Mahomes not less than two instances. The rivalry between the 2 has taken off the previous two seasons, even because the Chiefs have dominated the sequence since Crosby and Mahomes first met in 2019. Crosby has sacked Mahomes 4 instances and registered 4 QB hits of their previous three conferences. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: The Chiefs are in search of their ninth straight 10-win season, which might tie for third-longest streak in NFL historical past. It might even be Mahomes’ sixth straight 10-win marketing campaign as a beginning quarterback, which might break a tie for the third-longest streak in NFL historical past.
1:39
McAfee and Butler clarify how groups have slowed down Travis Kelce
Pat McAfee and Darius Butler break down how groups have been in a position to restrict Travis Kelce this season.
Matchup X issue: Raiders edge rusher Malcolm Koonce. You understand Crosby goes to convey it, however Koonce has been taking part in effectively. Since Week 9, he ranks fifth in move rush win price at edge, and he recorded two sacks final week in opposition to the Chargers. If the Raiders are going to stifle the Chiefs, the Koonce/Crosby tandem must be at its greatest. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chiefs might rejoice Christmas with an AFC West title in the event that they win, and it’d additionally put them at an 18% likelihood to earn the highest seed and a playoff bye. The Raiders are clinging to postseason desires, and their probabilities would climb to six% in the event that they win. Learn extra.
Accidents: Raiders | Chiefs
What to know for fantasy: Mahomes has averaged 303.5 passing yards in opposition to the Raiders in his profession, which is sweet information for Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice. Mahomes has accomplished 80% of his passes and averaged 9.0 yards per move try when throwing to Rice. He additionally has six passing touchdowns and no interceptions when concentrating on the rookie. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Raiders video games are 10-4 to the underneath this season, tied for the best underneath share within the NFL. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Chiefs 28, Raiders 20
Walder’s choose: Chiefs 34, Raiders 10
FPI prediction: KC, 82.6% (by a mean of 12.4 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Jones desirous to capitalize on recent begin with Raiders … Mahomes accepts penalty for blasting officers … Reid expects Pacheco again vs. Raiders
Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | Unfold: PHI -13.5 (42.5)
Storyline to look at: It is Matty Pencils versus Tommy Cutlets. Matt Patricia is in his second week as Eagles defensive playcaller after taking on for Sean Desai. He is attempting to show round a protection that ranks final on third down and thirty first in passing touchdowns allowed. Quarterback Tommy DeVito has given New York a spark, tossing eight landing passes to 3 interceptions over seven video games (5 begins), however the Giants are coming off a 24-6 loss to the Saints during which DeVito handed for less than 177 yards and was sacked seven instances. — Tim McManus
Daring prediction: DeVito will throw for 300 yards. He has by no means failed in prime time. So what if there is just one sport of proof? The Achilles heel of this Eagles protection is in opposition to the move, the place they’re twenty eighth within the NFL in permitting 255.4 yards per sport by way of the air. DeVito has already mentioned he welcomes the hostile atmosphere that can absolutely greet him in Philadelphia, and he might put up huge numbers. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has a career-high 14 speeding touchdowns this season (already tied for essentially the most in a season by a QB in NFL historical past with Cam Newton in 2011). A fifteenth speeding rating would tie halfback Steve Van Buren in 1945 for the second most in a season by any Eagles participant (LeSean McCoy had 17 in 2011).
Matchup X issue: Giants tight finish Darren Waller. The truth of the DeVito period is that it has been enjoyable and full of hype but in addition has contained solely a single sport with a QBR of 32 or higher. DeVito wants assist, and Waller — who not too long ago returned from damage — can present it. A greater sport from the tight finish can be the primary of many breaks the Giants would wish to drag an upset. — Walder
What’s at stake: Philly has clinched the playoffs however remains to be combating for the NFC East. The Eagles would have a 78% likelihood to win a division title in a win (9% within the race to the convention’s prime seed) and 20% in a loss. The Giants can be at 1% to make the playoffs in the event that they pull off a Christmas Day upset. Learn extra.
Accidents: Giants | Eagles
What to know for fantasy: In Week 15, Eagles operating again D’Andre Swift had a good matchup in opposition to the Seahawks and delivered a strong efficiency. On 20 touches, he gained 75 yards. The Eagles are double-digit favorites in opposition to the Giants, so it is implied Philadelphia shall be taking part in with a lead. The Giants’ protection has allowed the fourth-most speeding yards and third-most speeding touchdowns per sport to opponents. This bodes effectively for Swift. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Giants are 0-5 outright and 1-4 ATS in opposition to groups at the moment with successful data. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: Eagles 28, Giants 17
Walder’s choose: Eagles 27, Giants 13
FPI prediction: PHI, 87.5% (by a mean of 15.2 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Giants, DeVito nonetheless have quite a bit at stake in sport vs. Eagles … Dickerson undergoes thumb surgical procedure … DeVito on pizzeria flap: Some ‘stuff slipped by way of the cracks’
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+ | Unfold: SF -5 (46.5)
Storyline to look at: Discuss a Christmas present: This sport might be a preview of Tremendous Bowl LVIII, with the Niners and Ravens sitting because the betting and ESPN FPI favorites to signify their conferences within the huge sport. In keeping with Elias Sports activities Bureau, it is solely the second matchup of groups holding a share of the NFL’s greatest file in Week 16 or later for the reason that 1970 merger. It is also yet another prime-time alternative for Niners QB Brock Purdy and RB Christian McCaffrey and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to stake a declare to the league’s Most Beneficial Participant award. — Nick Wagoner
Daring prediction: The Ravens will maintain McCaffrey out of the tip zone. He’s the second 49ers participant to attain 20 touchdowns in a season, becoming a member of Corridor of Famer Jerry Rice, who scored 23 in 1987. However Baltimore, which leads the NFL in scoring protection, hasn’t allowed a speeding landing in 4 straight video games, a span of 13 quarters. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: The 49ers have received six straight video games by double digits, tied for his or her longest streak in franchise historical past (1987 and 1993). The final group to win seven straight by double digits in a single season was the 2007 Patriots (eight).
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Is it truthful to carry 49ers’ roster in opposition to Brock Purdy?
Mike Tannenbaum, Damien Woody and Dan Orlovsky debate whether or not Lamar Jackson or Brock Purdy is the extra worthwhile participant.
Matchup X issue: 49ers huge receiver Deebo Samuel. The Ravens do not let receivers get open. In truth, they’ve the second-best defensive group open rating (71) in ESPN’s receiver monitoring metrics. However that is not how Samuel wins — he is a YAC machine. Perhaps the Ravens can decelerate Brandon Aiyuk (who does excel at getting open). However stopping Samuel is a special kind of problem. — Walder
What’s at stake: Each groups have locked up playoff berths, and the 49ers already received the NFC West. The Niners even have a Week 16 path to the No. 1 seed: They want a win and losses from Dallas, Detroit and Philadelphia. The Ravens can take house the AFC North in the event that they win and Cleveland loses, and a win would put them at 83% to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed (53% with a loss). Learn extra.
Accidents: Ravens | 49ers
What to know for fantasy: Due to his dual-threat potential, Jackson can nonetheless be thought-about a top-five fantasy quarterback even when going through a stout 49ers protection. San Francisco’s protection allowed 234 speeding yards to the Cardinals in Week 15. The Ravens might have related success on the bottom behind their offensive line that ranks fourth in run block win price. With Keaton Mitchell dominated out for the season by a knee damage, Jackson would possibly get extra carries, and operating again Gus Edwards — who has scored a landing in six of his previous eight video games — might be an intriguing flex choice. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Jackson is 24-11-2 ATS on the highway in his profession. Learn extra.
Moody’s choose: 49ers 17, Ravens 14
Walder’s choose: 49ers 26, Ravens 21
FPI prediction: SF, 64% (by a mean of 4.8 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Underdog Ravens really feel ‘disrespected’ forward of 49ers showdown … Juszczyk believes versatility is vital in protecting fullbacks related within the NFL … Jackson as soon as once more listening to ‘MVP’ chants … The case for and in opposition to Purdy being MVP
