The NFL playoffs’ wild-card spherical schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with nice matchups, and we have you lined with what you have to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters convey us the most important keys to each recreation and a daring prediction for every matchup.
Moreover, ESPN Stats & Data supplies an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, and our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection. Analytics author Seth Walder picks out every matchup’s largest X issue, Matt Bowen identifies a key game-planning matchup to look at in each recreation, and Kevin Seifert tells us what to know concerning the officiating. Lastly, Walder and Eric Moody give us last rating picks for each recreation. All the pieces you need to know is right here in a single spot that will help you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff soccer.
Let’s get into the complete wild-card slate, together with Matthew Stafford’s return to Detroit.
Leap to a matchup:
PIT-BUF | GB-DAL
LAR-DET | PHI-TB
Byes: SF, BAL
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | Unfold: DAL -7 (50.5)
What to look at for: Playoff video games between the Cowboys and Packers have been memorable, from the Ice Bowl (higher generally known as the 1967 NFL championship), to the 2014 divisional spherical when Dez Bryant did not — or did — catch it, to the 2016 divisional spherical when Aaron Rodgers’ 35-yard completion arrange the game-winning subject purpose. In that recreation, quarterback Dak Prescott was making his first playoff begin. On this recreation, quarterback Jordan Love is making his first playoff begin. Dallas coach Mike McCarthy was on the Packers’ sideline for these final two video games, however now he will get an opportunity to finish his former crew’s season and advance to the divisional spherical of the playoffs for the second straight season. — Todd Archer
Daring prediction: In a recreation that options the quarterbacks who ranked first and second within the NFL in landing passes this season (Prescott with 36, Love with 32), each Packers operating again Aaron Jones and Cowboys operating again Tony Pollard will high 100 yards. Jones ended the season with three straight video games over 100 yards. And Pollard is coming off his second consecutive 1,000-yard season and can face a Inexperienced Bay protection that allowed a Twenty eighth-ranked 128.3 speeding yards per recreation this season. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Packers are 5-0 at AT&T Stadium all time, together with playoffs (4-0 versus the Cowboys, plus a Tremendous Bowl XLV win towards the Steelers).
Matchup X issue: Love. In concept, this ought to be Dallas’ recreation, and it should not be that shut. However since Week 10, the highest gamers in QBR have been Prescott and Love, respectively. If Love can pull out an distinctive recreation, Inexperienced Bay has an actual likelihood. — Walder
Recreation-plan key: I am excited to see if Dallas can scheme some inside pass-rushing performs for Micah Parsons. He led the NFL in move rush win price this season (35.4%), and there will probably be alternatives when he kicks inside. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen
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Accidents: Packers | Cowboys
Officiating observe: The Cowboys have been distinctive this season at drawing protection penalties from opponents, who’ve been flagged an NFL-high 31 instances for defensive move interference, defensive holding or unlawful contact. It is a massive purpose why the Cowboys led the league with 43 first downs by way of penalty. The Packers’ shell protection, nonetheless, was solely flagged 16 instances for protection fouls, the NFL’s seventh fewest. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Packers have been 10-7 ATS within the common season with overs going 10-7. The Cowboys have been 10-7 ATS within the common season with unders going 9-8.
Moody’s choose: Cowboys 34, Packers 21
Walder’s choose: Cowboys 31, Packers 24
FPI prediction: DAL, 73.6% (by a median of 9.1 factors)
Matchup must-reads: How Love is staying ‘stage’ for playoff debut … If not now, when for Prescott and a Cowboys Tremendous Bowl? … How Love outdid Rodgers, Favre in 12 months 1 … Cowboys’ McCarthy: Revisiting Packers tenure ‘will not assist us win’
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET | NBC | Unfold: DET -3 (51.5)
What to look at for: Matthew Stafford towards Jared Goff. It is the Lions’ first residence playoff recreation for the reason that 1993 season, as the 2 former No. 1 general choose quarterbacks face off for the second time since being traded for one another in 2021. There isn’t any scarcity of suspense as Lions coach Dan Campbell will attempt to lead Detroit to its first postseason victory for the reason that 1991 season, whereas Rams coach Sean McVay is trying to enhance his 7-3 profession file in playoff video games. — Eric Woodyard
Daring prediction: Stafford will throw for a minimum of 350 yards. It is not a mark he has hit but this season, however the matchup may very well be a high-scoring one. Stafford, who performed for the Lions for 12 seasons, has a profession common of 277.7 move yards per recreation at Ford Discipline, the fourth highest by any quarterback at a single stadium in NFL historical past, in accordance with the Elias Sports activities Bureau. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Lions went for it on fourth down 34% of the time this season, the best of any crew this century. The Rams went for it 17% of the time, which ranked twentieth this season. However Los Angeles may take into account being extra aggressive on fourth down because it has missed 16 mixed subject objectives and further factors this season, essentially the most by any crew for the reason that 2001 Steelers (17).
Matchup X issue: Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. He completed the common season pink scorching with 5.0 sacks, a compelled fumble and a 19% move rush win price at edge in his last two video games. If he retains that up, that will be big for the Lions’ protection. — Walder
Recreation-plan key: Lions operating backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs may see quantity on Sunday evening, particularly out of 11 personnel. The Rams allowed 4.9 yards per carry towards such alignments this season. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen
Accidents: Rams | Lions
Officiating observe: The Lions’ problem in masking the Rams’ passing recreation will probably be enhanced by their proclivity to commit protection penalties. They have been flagged 29 instances for defensive move interference, defensive holding or unlawful contact, the fifth most within the NFL. They have been additionally flagged six instances for roughing the passer, tied for the fourth most. Referee Craig Wrolstad threw 4 flags for roughing the passer throughout the common season, tied for sixth fewest. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Rams have been 10-7 ATS within the common season with overs going 9-8. The Lions have been 12-5 ATS within the common season, the very best file within the NFL. Their overs went 11-6, additionally tied for the best over proportion within the NFL.
Moody’s choose: Rams 28, Lions 24
Walder’s choose: Lions 24, Rams 20
FPI prediction: DET, 53.9% (by a median of 1.4 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Stafford constructed his resiliency in Detroit — now he hopes to topple the Lions … Goff: Chip on shoulder from Rams commerce won’t ever depart me … Morris has drive to be an HC once more … Untold tales of Campbell as a participant
Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: BUF -10 (35.5)
What to look at for: The roads that the Payments and Steelers took to this recreation include an eerie variety of similarities, from shedding key gamers to harm for stretches to assembling season-ending successful streaks regardless of low playoff odds. Each groups additionally fired their offensive coordinators at midseason, turning into the primary playoff groups to have an in-season coordinator change for the reason that 2012 Ravens. The Steelers are searching for the crew’s first playoff win since 2016, whereas the Payments are 13-2 in residence playoff video games since 1970. Limiting quarterback Josh Allen within the postseason will pose a problem for Pittsburgh, as Allen is the one participant in NFL playoff historical past to common 250 passing yards and 50 speeding yards per recreation (min. 5 video games) and has the best mixed common yardage (343.9). — Alaina Getzenberg
Daring prediction: Steelers operating again Najee Harris can have his third consecutive recreation of a minimum of 100 speeding yards. The Payments’ speeding protection is arguably the hardest the Steelers have confronted in a minimum of a month, permitting opponents a median of 103 speeding yards per recreation of their previous three contests. However Harris is on a roll with back-to-back video games of 100-plus speeding yards. With the temperature anticipated to be under freezing, wind gusts of fifty miles per hour and doable gentle snow, the Steelers will lean closely on their floor recreation. Sharing the backfield with Jaylen Warren, Harris had simply 255 touches within the common season, his fewest in his three-year NFL profession, making him as contemporary as doable for the playoffs. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: The Steelers had 9 wins in one-score video games throughout the common season, which led the NFL and are essentially the most in a single season in franchise historical past.
Matchup X issue: Payments left deal with Dion Dawkins. With edge rusher T.J. Watt out, Alex Highsmith is much more essential to the Steelers’ move rush. If Dawkins — who has had a very nice season and ranked fourth in move block win price amongst tackles — can shut down Highsmith, that ought to arrange Allen for a fairly easy day. — Walder
Recreation-plan key: Pittsburgh has to run the ball properly between the tackles. Harris and Warren completed the common season scorching, and Buffalo allowed 4.6 yards per keep it up inside runs this season, thirtieth within the NFL. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen
Accidents: Steelers | Payments
Officiating observe: This recreation will profit from one of many NFL’s most trusted referees. Carl Cheffers has been the Tremendous Bowl referee in two of the previous three years and thrice previously seven. His regular-season crew threw the third-fewest flags within the league (12.1 per recreation). — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Steelers have been 10-7 ATS within the common season with unders going 11-6. The Payments have been 7-10 ATS within the common season with unders going 11-6.
Moody’s choose: Payments 34, Steelers 20
Walder’s choose: Payments 30, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: BUF, 76.6% (by a median of 10.4 factors)
Matchup must-reads: How Tomlin impressed the battered Steelers’ unlikely playoff push … Have the Payments shed their shaky late-game popularity? The playoffs will determine … Who’s to thank for Steelers’ playoff push? Begin with guys claimed ‘off the sofa’
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | Unfold: PHI -3 (43.5)
What to look at for: It is a Week 3 rematch that Bucs inside linebacker Devin White so precisely predicted after the Bucs’ 25-11 residence loss on “Monday Night time Soccer.” However these two groups have headed in reverse instructions. The Bucs received 5 of their previous six video games, whereas the Eagles have misplaced 5 of their previous six. The Bucs may also see a special trying protection since senior assistant Matt Patricia took over in Week 15. Each quarterbacks are coping with accidents, as Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has not solely a rib harm however additionally an ankle harm, whereas Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts suffered a finger harm on his throwing hand in Week 18. — Jenna Laine
Daring prediction: Bucs operating again Rachaad White will eclipse 125 all-purpose yards. The final time these two groups met, the Eagles held Tampa Bay to 41 speeding yards. However the run protection has fallen off a cliff since then, yielding 142 yards per recreation on common over their previous seven video games. A banged-up Mayfield may lean on White in each the bottom and brief passing recreation. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Hurts has struggled with ball safety towards the blitz this season, throwing 5 landing passes with eight interceptions. These eight turnovers have been essentially the most by any quarterback when blitzed this season. This weekend, Hurts will face a Tampa Bay protection that blitzed on the third-highest price throughout the common season.
Matchup X issue: Hurts’ finger. He mentioned on Thursday that he hadn’t thrown a ball since injuring his finger in Week 18. If that harm hampers his skill to throw the ball on Monday evening, then that is a completely totally different ballgame. — Walder
Recreation-plan key: Can Philly get the run recreation going with D’Andre Swift? He ran for 130 yards towards Tampa Bay again in Week 3, and feeding him within the run recreation may assist the Eagles get right into a rhythm. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen Accidents: Eagles | Buccaneers Officiating observe: For the entire public dialogue the Eagles endured over their offensive linemen lining up offsides on “tush push” performs, the larger story is that their offensive line was flagged an NFL-low eight instances for offensive holding. The Buccaneers’ defensive entrance drew 22 such flags, tied for Sixteenth-most. — Seifert Betting nugget: The Eagles have been 7-10 ATS within the common season with overs going 9-8. The Buccaneers have been 11-6 ATS within the common season with unders going 11-6. Moody’s choose: Buccaneers 28, Eagles 21 Matchup must-reads: Is the Eagles’ move rush as fearsome because it appears? … Buccaneers clinch third straight NFC South title with win Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NBC | Unfold: CLE -2 (44.5) Houston beat Cleveland 45-14 What to look at for: The final time these two groups performed, Browns broad receiver Amari Cooper completed with a team-record 265 receiving yards in Cleveland’s 36-22 win. The Texans did not have their beginning quarterback, C.J. Stroud, who was in concussion protocol, and Case Keenum stepped in and threw two interceptions. The Texans have the utmost confidence that they’ll beat any crew once they have Stroud, so count on this matchup to be a lot totally different now that he is wholesome. — DJ Bien-Aime Daring prediction: The Browns will win the turnover battle for under the third time this season. That is the primary playoff matchup for the reason that 1970 merger that includes a crew that dedicated the league’s most turnovers (Cleveland, 37) towards the crew that dedicated the fewest (Houston, 14). The Browns have been emphasizing ball safety of their constructing forward of this matchup, so that ought to play in Cleveland’s favor. — Jake Trotter Stat to know: Stroud’s weak spot is fixing man protection. Whereas he has the best QBR within the league towards zone protection (74), he ranks twenty seventh towards man (39). His QBR decline of 35.1 is the biggest from zone to man protection this season. This weekend, Stroud will face a Browns protection that runs man protection on the Tenth-highest price (47%) and has the very best man protection within the league. Matchup X issue: Browns cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr. — at any time when they’re lining up on Nico Collins. The Texans wideout had an unbelievable season, rating second in yards per route run behind solely Tyreek Hill. If the Browns’ corners can shut him down on any given play, that significantly depletes Stroud’s choices. Emerson and Ward are good gamers, and this strength-on-strength matchup may determine the sport. — Walder Recreation-plan key: I am searching for the Browns to scheme some deep pictures for quarterback Joe Flacco. He had 5 completions on passes thrown a minimum of 20 yards downfield when Cleveland met Houston in Week 16. Can the Texans include the Browns’ vertical passing recreation? Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen Accidents: Browns | Texans Officiating observe: This recreation will function two of the NFL’s most penalized groups. The Browns have been flagged 138 instances, second most within the NFL, whereas the Texans have been No. 5 with 132 flags. And Browns opponents have been flagged 133 instances, most within the league. Nevertheless, referee Clay Martin’s regular-season crew threw the fourth-fewest flags within the league at 12.4 per recreation. — Seifert Betting nugget: The Texans are 9-3 towards the unfold (ATS) of their previous 12 conferences towards the Browns. Moody’s choose: Texans 24, Browns 21 Matchup must-reads: Garrett will not be denied as Browns start playoff journey … How Slowik has helped Stroud excel as a rookie … Ward injures knee in apply, standing in query … How Ryans helped turnaround the Texans Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Peacock | Unfold: KC -4.5 (43.5) What to look at for: The Chiefs defended broad receiver Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins about in addition to they may have throughout their Week 9 assembly, however doing it a second time will probably be a problem. Kansas Metropolis performed a season-high 61% zone protection in deference to Miami’s velocity and quickness. The Chiefs held Hill to 62 yards and made him fumble, returning it for the decisive landing. An analogous efficiency would give the Chiefs an amazing likelihood for victory, however can they repeat it? — Adam Teicher Daring prediction: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will throw a pair of touchdowns with out turning the ball over. The temperature at Arrowhead Stadium is projected to really feel prefer it’s properly into the negatives by Saturday evening. Tagovailoa has confronted criticism for his efficiency in chilly climate — he has misplaced all 4 of his begins in sub-45-degree climate, finishing simply 55% of his passes. However he’ll snap out of it, alongside along with his late-season funk. — Marcel Louis-Jacques Stat to know: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown a number of landing passes in six straight postseason video games and enters this weekend trying to tie Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana and Drew Brees for the third-longest streak in postseason historical past. Matchup X issue: Chiefs tight finish Travis Kelce. He hasn’t been the identical participant, and at this level, it has turn into blindingly clear that broad receiver assist is not coming for the Chiefs. They want somebody to be a dominant receiving risk, and Kelce is probably going the one participant on the roster who can turn into that if he can discover his 2022 kind once more. — Walder 2:34 Stephen A.: Cowboys underneath extra stress to succeed in Tremendous Bowl than 49ers. Stephen A. Smith and Chris “Mad Canine” Russo disagree on whether or not the Dallas Cowboys or San Francisco 49ers are underneath extra stress to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl this season. Recreation-plan key: How will the Chiefs decelerate Hill? Getting some two-deep protection variations into the sport plan will probably be key to containing Miami’s explosive move recreation. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen Accidents: Dolphins | Chiefs Officiating observe: The Chiefs have been flagged extra typically for offensive holding (33) than another crew, an enormous purpose why they ranked No. 6 general in penalties (126). This side of the sport can be underneath extra scrutiny had the Dolphins not suffered a sequence of accidents to their high pass-rushers, however it’s nonetheless value noting that referee Brad Rogers’ regular-season crew threw the second-most flags for offensive holding (48). — Seifert Betting nugget: The Dolphins have been 10-7 ATS within the common season with overs going 9-8. The Chiefs have been 9-8 ATS within the common season with unders going 11-6. Moody’s choose: Dolphins 27, Chiefs 21 Matchup must-reads: How Tagovailoa met his purpose of 17-game season … How Reid unlocked Kelce … Dolphins signal Houston, Irvin for playoffs
Walder’s choose: Eagles 21, Buccaneers 16
FPI prediction: PHI, 57.3% (by a median of two.6 factors)
Saturday’s video games
Walder’s choose: Texans 23, Browns 16
FPI prediction: CLE, 50.5% (by a median of 0.2 factors)
Walder’s choose: Dolphins 27, Chiefs 23
FPI prediction: KC, 52.6% (by a median of 0.9 factors)
